HuskerWisdom

Sacks: Maine - 11 WF - 5 Pitt - 4 Iowa St - 6 Texas Tech - 4 Baylor - 4 Missouri - 4 OU - 1 Kansas - 1 K-State 2 The number are going in the wrong direction overall during the season, and if you toss out the Maine game they are good, but not great. I do think this defense is better than last year (although I think last year's defense could have been much better than it was with some good adjustments in terms of system), but a lot of the improvement by this bunch has been predicated by a weak schedule.

I certainly hope they play better. I think most of this year's "improvement" has been an illusion caused by our schedule and the fact that we had winnable games at home. If you want to believe that we'll be 9-2 next year, or something like that, feel free to believe it, but don't expect a rational analysis of abilities to support that faith.

Tough schedule? What teams on next year's schedule make you shake in your shoes other than USC and Texas? This year it was TT and OU. Next year it's those two. I really can't see any teams on next year's schedule other than the two mentioned that we shouldn't win. Unfortunately, we won't win all of them. However, they're all winnable except Texas and USC. Too bad we can't just play all patsies. I'm sure we will for nonconference, but I can't think OSU will be much better than the patsies Pud will have lined up. KU will be comparable. There really are no teams we play in Big 12 competition that should beat us other than Texas. But, I almost guarantee we'll get beat by some of them. I would bet ISU would beat us, and guys I guarantee they don't have better talent. They have better homegrown Nebraska talent, but nobody thinks Nebraska has players worth playing D1 ball appratently! This year's schedule was not only weak, but most of the difficult teams on the schedule were at home. Beyond that, ISU and others had key injuries that hurt them when they played us. Next year's schedule doesn't work that way: 1. TBA - a patsie to boost the record (WIN) 2. USC - draw your own conclusions (LOSS) 3. TBA - likely another patsie. Pederson and Callahan have to do well next year, so I don't expect them to make this one difficult. (WIN) 4. Kansas - at NU, they lose a good bit of their defense, but I expect this will remain a tough game for us. Playing at home gives us a chance to win though (50/50) 5. Iowa State - at Iowa State. If they are healthy this year we would have lost in Lincoln. I don't think we win on the road against them (LOSS) 6. Kansas State - at K.State. we barely beat them at home. they have a young QB who will have more experience, but are also going through a coaching change. Makes it tough that it is on the road (50/50) 7. Texas - ouch 8. OK State - on the road - poor team this year, no clear vision on how good they will be next year, though. (WIN) 9. Missouri - at home, beat us badly this year, they lose their QB Smith, but FR Chase Daniel has gotten a lot of snaps and looks like he can play. 4 of the top receivers are back. We probably win, but this isn't an easy game. (WIN) 10. Texas A&M - on the road, another senior QB who is leaving, but a FR has gotten snaps and looked good also. two of top 3 receivers are gone, top RB returns. (LOSS - although I assume we split Missouri and A&M) 11. Colorado at home. They lose their QB, we should have a good shot at this game, but it isn't a guaranteed win (WIN) 11. Colorado - probably a win, they lose their QB I see 5 games that look very winnable on paper, 4 games that look like losses, and 2 that are tossups. If we play like we did this year, we could easily go 5-6 - and that is IF we don't schedule anybody tough on our open dates. We were lucky with our schedule this year, but if we don't improve things will get tougher next year.

One other note. Take a look at Donovan McNabb's career. From 1999 to 2003 his avearge per attempt was between 4.4 his rookie year and 6.7 in 2003. In 2004, they add T.O. and their running game is very strong, his yards per attempt go up to 8.3 and they go to the super bowl. Just look at the super bowl teams for the past 5 years, similar patterns emerge. There are some anomolies, but generally a team is up around 8 yrds/attempt when they get to the big game.

Unfortunately, the data doesn't back up your assumption that I am incorrect. Montana and the SF offense did throw many short passes, BUT his yards per attempt was high for his career and very high during their best seasons. Super bowl years: 1981 7.3 1984 8.4 1988 7.5 1989 9.1 CAREER: 7.5 As a comparison, Kenny Stabler averaged 7.4 yards per carry (9.4 in their super bowl year), but he was a very accurate passer in a very effective offense. As a statistic, the average per ATTEMPT factors in the risk of the pass versus the length that is attempted. In other words, short, accurate passes up your average, but the distance isn't as much. Long passes don't have the average, but do get more yardage. Don't confuse this statistic with yards per Completion!!! I haven't been able to find sortable career statistics on it, but you can bet that whenever a QB has a huge yards per attempt stat (in almost any offense) you will see a successful offense.

The most important passing stat to me is usually Yards per Attempt. It tells you about all you need to know about how a passing game and the offense as a whole is performing. NU is at the lower end of the Big 12 with 5.9 yards per attempt. Brad Smith at MO and Brian Luke of Kansas are behind him at 5.4 and 5.5 respectively. While Texas Tech's Hodges and Texas' Young are in big producing offenses that probably inflate their stats at 8.2 and 9.9 (for Young.. wow!), a better comparison is Bret Meyer who average 7.9 Yards per Attempt... and a 2-1 TD to Int ratio. Say what you want, I think the offensive talent at ISU is similar/comparable to the offensive talent at NU - especially when you factor in the injuries their offense had this year. Finally, Dailey's interceptions were a killer last year, but the offense averaged 6.5 yards per attempt with him at the helm. Not a great number, but not bad either. Given the schedule we had this year, I find it hard to say that we've improved that much.

Unless this team takes a step forward next year (and a big step forward), I think 7-5 will be a stretch. Fortunately, we've had about the easiest schedule I can remember for NU this year, but it won't be that way next year. On a positive note, CU and KSU look like they may be heading for harder times, but ISU might have found the right formula for success and could be vying for the title for quite a while.