Hoosker

 

From the magazine:

 

TEAMS ON THE DECLINE

NEBRASKA

The Cornhuskers were on last year's "likely to improve" list, but really, only the win total improved. Nebraska actually fell from 36th in S&P+ in 2015 to 46th last fall. What changed? Luck and close-game performance. Based on national averages for fumble recoveries and the ratio of interceptions to passes broken up, Nebraska's turnover margin should have been about plus-0.5 in 2015 and minus-4.8 in 2016; instead, it was minus-12 in 2015 and plus-5 last year. This drastic shift in turnover luck put its finger on the scales. The Huskers were 3-6 in one-possession games in 2015 and 3-1 in 2016. Otherwise, the were, at best, basically the same team. That's not necessarily encouraging considering Nebraska now returns only 12 starters, third fewest in the Big Ten.

 

Since the end of 2016, we have upgraded to a top-flight defensive coordinator (and are paying him handsomely), switched to a defense that better fits our bevy of linebackers, and also picked up Donte Williams, who has been recruiting like a madman since he arrived. Not to mention we now have a QB that not only fits Riley's system, but also had a year to redshirt and develop chemistry with teammates like JD Spielman.

That doesn't sound like a team on the decline to me.

That sounds like a team making moves to get better.

 

I can't prove that Tanner Lee will have a better season than Clayton Thorson...

 

...I just know it's true.

Thorson is a stud. Might be the best qb in the big ten. If Lee is as good as him we win 10 games

 

Maybe the best in the division, sure, but again, that's because we haven't seen Tanner play yet.

Wisconsin's Hornibrook is average.

Iowa has two, neither of which have played well enough to win the job yet.

Illinois isn't trotting out anyone special.

Minnesota is an unknown with Leidner leaving and a new staff.

Hell, I'd put Purdue's David Blough right there with Thorson.

Damn. Kid hasn't even started high school yet.

Williams must feel pretty good about him.

I can't prove that Tanner Lee will have a better season than Clayton Thorson...

...I just know it's true.

Yeah...

...we are NOT leaving Adidas anytime soon.

Or, we are looking ahead to Illinois being our trap game that Rutgers becomes the trap!

I'm not surprised with the over on Nebraska.

I am surprised they took the over on Northwestern's 7.

Gebbia provides tremendous optimism for Husker fans moving forward.

It's been said over and over, but, statistics aside, his performance in the Spring Game was eye-opening.

He enrolled early, has been nose deep in the playbook, and looked nothing like a true freshman in that scrimmage.

Tosh Lupoi at Alabama recruited him. Chris Peterson at Washington offered. That's 2 College Football Playoff teams right there.

He also received offers from Mike Leach, Hugh Freeze, Bobby Petrino, Mark Richt, and Dana Holgorsen. Like them or not, those guys know good QBs.

It seems to me like this article is just the tip of the Tristan Gebbia iceberg. I think he's going to leave a legacy at Nebraska.

2017 Opponents | 2016 Average Passing Yards Allowed (Rank)

Arkansas State | 215.2 (43rd)

Oregon | 269.1 (112th)

Northern Illinois | 244.8 (79th)

Rutgers | 194.1 (20th)

Illinois | 186.9 (12th)

Wisconsin | 202.6 (26th)

Ohio State | 172.2 (6th)

Purdue | 206.1 (31st)

Northwestern | 263.4 (105th)

Minnesota | 229.6 (63rd)

Penn State | 216.6 (45th)

Iowa | 207.6 (33rd)

For reference, we were right behind Arkansas State and just ahead of Penn State at 44th last year. These are just the raw statistics, however.

In order to have a more accurate prediction for what to expect, you would have to factor in players graduating/leaving/coming in, coaching turnover/staff changes, and so on.

I really have no idea what to expect from Tanner Lee. Simply because it's not completely up to him. He, an unknown, is surrounded by a lot of other important unknowns. It's tricky.

The Oregon game will tell us a lot. They didn't do well last season against the pass, but, as we all know, new year, new staff, new scheme. Autzen will be a tough early test.

At least he gets his toughest defenses (Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa) with the Sea of Red behind him. PSU is going to be nasty, but they aren't as strong against the pass.

I think he should be able to carve up some defenses. Hopefully some divisional foes like Northwestern or Minnesota. That should make those pesky matchups a lot less pesky.

 

I look at these and I think to myself... Zac Taylor had a rushing TD? Huh..

 

He had one both seasons as a starter. An awkward unnecessary dive against Maine (which we won 7-6) in 2005, and a naked bootleg against USC in 2006.

 

We beat Maine 25-7 in 2005 FWIW

2016 (7) Nebraska 17 @ 23 Wisconsin (11) OT

2015 Nebraska 21 vs. 23 Wisconsin

2014 (11) Nebraska 24 @ 59 Wisconsin (22)

2012 (14) Nebraska 31 vs. 70 Wisconsin

2012 (20) Nebraska 30 vs. 27 Wisconsin (23)

2011 (8) Nebraska 17 @ 48 Wisconsin (7)

Nebraska has been the higher ranked team vs. Wisconsin 4 out of the 6 matchups:

• 2016
• 2014
• 2012
• 2012

This just shows how everything has almost always come down to beating Wisconsin. The only year we managed to do it, we made to Indianapolis.

Season statistics for the QB who started the opener.

2000 Eric Crouch

• Passing: 1,101 yards - 11 TD - 7 INT - 48.1%
• Rushing: 971 yards - 20 TD

2001 Eric Crouch

• Passing: 1,510 yards - 7 TD - 10 INT - 55.6%
• Rushing: 1,115 yards - 18 TD

2002 Jammal Lord

• Passing: 1,362 yards - 12 TD - 12 INT - 46.6%
• Rushing: 1,412 yards - 8 TD

2003 Jammal Lord

• Passing: 1,305 yards - 6 TD - 8 INT - 48.3%
• Rushing: 948 yards - 10 TD

2004 Joe Dailey

• Passing: 2,025 yards - 17 TD - 19 INT - 49.4%
• Rushing: 4 TD

2005 Zac Taylor

• Passing: 2,653 yards - 19 TD - 12 INT - 55.1%
• Rushing: 1 TD

2006 Zac Taylor

• Passing: 3,197 yards - 26 TD - 8 INT - 59.6%
• Rushing: 1 TD

2007 Sam Keller

• Passing: 2,422 yards - 14 TD - 10 INT - 63.1%
• Rushing:

2008 Joe Ganz

• Passing: 3,568 yards - 25 TD - 11 INT - 67.9%
• Rushing: 258 yards - 5 TD

2009 Zac Lee

• Passing: 2,143 yards - 14 TD - 10 INT - 58.6%
• Rushing: 171 yards - 1 TD

2010 Taylor Martinez

• Passing: 1,631 yards - 10 TD - 7 INT - 59.2%
• Rushing: 965 yards - 12 TD

2011 Taylor Martinez

• Passing: 2,089 yards - 13 TD - 8 INT - 56.2%
• Rushing: 874 yards - 9 TD

2012 Taylor Martinez

• Passing: 2,871 yards - 23 TD - 12 INT - 62%
• Rushing: 1,019 yards - 10 TD

2013 Taylor Martinez

• Passing: 667 yards - 10 TD - 2 INT - 62.7%
• Rushing: 117 yards

2014 Tommy Armstrong Jr.

• Passing: 2,695 yards - 22 TD - 12 INT - 53.3%
• Rushing: 705 yards - 6 TD

2015 Tommy Armstrong Jr.

• Passing: 3,030 yards - 22 TD - 16 INT - 55.2%
• Rushing: 400 yards - 7 TD

2016 Tommy Armstrong Jr.

• Passing: 2,180 yards - 14 TD - 8 INT - 51.4%
• Rushing: 512 yards - 8 TD

Most Passing Yards: 3,568 (Joe Ganz - 2008)

Most Passing TD: 26 (Zac Taylor - 2006)

Highest Completion %: 67.9% (Joe Ganz - 2008)

Most Rushing Yards: 1,412 (Jammal Lord - 2002)

Most Rushing TD: 20 (Eric Crouch - 2000)

Most Total Yards: 3,890 (Taylor Martinez - 2012)

Where do you see Tanner Lee ending up compared to these guys?

Which previous season do you think 2017 will compare to, if any?

I'd guess somewhere around 3,000 yards, maybe 20 TD and like 8-9 INT. Somewhere between 2005 and 2006 Zac Taylor.

Of course, this entire conversation depends greatly on the development of the Offensive Line and the Wide Receivers.

Thoughts?

vs. Arkansas State

@ Oregon

vs. Northern Illinois

vs. Rutgers

@ Illinois

vs. Wisconsin

vs. Ohio State

@ Purdue

vs. Northwestern

@ Minnesota

@ Penn State

vs. Iowa

I agree with the toughest stretch. After the bye week, it's 3 road games in 5 weeks, with a short week following the trip to State College.

I disagree that Penn State is the toughest game, though. We're 0-2 vs. Urban Meyer by a wide margin. We're 0-0 vs. James Franklin.

Despite what happened last year, I still fear the Buckeyes, even at home, more than the Nittany Lions in their own den.

How do you feel about the gorrilaz as a whole Hoosker?

 

Edit: I meant to put Gorillaz album lol obviously Gorillas as a whole is great.

I've been enjoying it quite a bit since it came out. I think it's pretty eclectic, even by Gorillaz standards.

I think it's hard to match Demon Days or the debut album, but I'd put it right up there with Plastic Beach.

I like it more than The Fall, that's for sure.

I'd be interested to see how we stack up with other P5 programs when it comes to players leaving/transferring.

And yeah, Bo's last couple classes have shown to be a major part of the 4+ L /year problem. This draft confirmed it. A lot of good, not great players.

I need new shoes.

The only player I cared about committing. Not to lower the value of any others but I believe this kid is going to impact Husker history in a big way.

I'm in the same boat. You really can't hype this kid up enough. He's just such a well-rounded player, in terms of talent and personality.

POB is in trouble. That's all I know. Lee looks like he has NFL potential and Gebbia just put on a show.

Yes, it was against a vanilla scheme without the possibility of contact, so it's not the same thing, but anyone with eyes can see he has the skills to play immediately at this level.

Lee, Gebbia, Spielman, Gifford, Bryant were the ones who stood out after my initial viewing.

POB seems like the odd man out at QB for now. Gebbia looked awfully impressive at times against the 1st string.

Spielman is going to be a good one. He looks like he's going to get quite a few YAC during his time here.

I like our options at RB too. All 3 looked good. And no surprise, but Mazour is going to get some meaningful touches this year. He's too tough and shifty not to.

Got a bitchin sunburn one year.

Wow. I was expecting maybe a few weeks into Fall camp, but I suppose the sooner, the better in terms of leadership.

In all seriousness, is his physical frame the only thing that's legitimately keeping him from competing with Lee and POB for the starting job in 2017?

I'm sort of getting the impression that Gebbia is the best overall, but just needs a year to get bigger and 'look the part', no?

Lee has the experience over both POB and Gebbia, but as far as talent goes at the position, weight and muscle aside, who is the best of the three?