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Huge game in the B1G this weekend, even though the result will ultimately be meaningless in determining the division/conference championship. But perhaps the biggest talking point surrounding this game is the fact that Wisconsin is a 3-point favorite. That's right, I bet I surprised a few of you with that one if you hadn't heard it yet. Here's why: -Wisconsin doesn't have a single *bad* loss. Not even close. Their worst loss by far is vs. Michigan State - a team who is much better than their record indicates. They also have losses to Nebraska, by 3, on the road...and to Oregon State, by 3, on the road. They also have a big win vs. Utah State. Wait a minute, tschu, what did you just say? A big win against Utah State? Absolutely. They have Top-10 AYPP stats and are 21st in Sagarin's predictor. By comparison, Nebraska is ranked 23rd. This is also a team that was hampered by some injuries up-front early in the year; these are guys that are returning now and should be huge factors in the running game. Don't forget, this team still has Montee Ball. Now what about Ohio State? They're undefeated and ranked #5 in the nation! How could they not be favored over an unranked team??????? Well, because Ohio State isn't that good. They really aren't. Their best win, by far, is vs. Nebraska - a game where they should have won by, at most, a touchdown. They beat Indiana by 3, a team that Wisconsin just beat by 40. It took overtime and a lot of luck for them to beat Purdue, they played a tight game with Penn State, and looked thoroughly unimpressive against Illinois, although Illinois was clearly way outmatched. Finally - although a standard 3 points usually gets applied by folks to spreads as a home-field advantage, it's well-documented that all home-field advantages are not the same. Camp Randall is more in the 5-6 point HFA range. Look at what Sagarin predicts for the game's outcome (0.5-pt tOSU victory) and apply a 5-pt HFA and you get Wisconsin by 4.5. Look at the AYPP rankings as well: 18. Wisconsin, 20. Ohio State. Adjusted YPP also predicts exactly the same thing: a 4.5-pt Wisconsin victory. Football Outsiders FEI has Wisconsin at 16 in the nation in efficiency, while Ohio State is 12. Not exactly a blowout. In general, the stats + home field at Camp Randall suggest a Wisconsin victory. Once you start to look at the matchup beyond the casual-fan "zomg, but tOSU is undefeated #5 in the nation *cough, cough, Damon Benning* and take a closer look at both teams, the line makes total sense. It is almost exactly the same as West Virginia @ Texas Tech earlier this year, a game where people couldn't believe that WVU was only 3-point favorites on the road. Well, I parlayed the under with a TTU victory and won a lot of money. Something to think about if you want to bet this matchup is that there's bound to be a higher-than-average amount of money on Ohio State, pushing the line from maybe a true -4 down to -3. Which is fine by me. Take the odds and Wisconsin. At the end of the day, let's just hope that Wisconsin wins so that if we should beat Wisconsin for the conference title, we'll look a little bit better.