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Do We Have the Talent We Need?


Mavric

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1 minute ago, YetiJR said:

Sorry, but it does correlate when depth is a massive issue on the football team, especially when you look at a 3 year recruiting process equals 53%

Nebraska fans, "We have no depth at receiver!!!!," 6 Mike Riley WR recruits transfer, 50% of which before frost gets to campus. "We  have no OLB's or no ILB's!!," 7 of which didn't finish their career at UNL. 

Wouldn’t one assume 3 cycles is enough time to fix depth issues? Year 1 is the year to complain about depth issues. Year 2 maybe. Year 3 and it’s self inflicted. 

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43 minutes ago, Husker in WI said:

 

I know the angry fans hate this argument, but Frost is 11-20 and could very easily be something like 17-14. Riley was 19-19 and very easily could've been 10-28. I really do understand the wins are what counts. But for the long term prognosis it does matter how close/far we are, and Frost has been close to 7-8 wins the past couple years. I get the W/L argument, but I firmly stand by the view that Riley's teams were worse than their record and Frost's have been better.

 

I'm much more confident moving forward with a 2-5 team that advanced stats say is in the 30-40 range than 2016's 9-4 team that was ranked in the 60s. In everything except record we trended down consistently under Riley - the 4-8 team in 2017 was below 100th. I'm not happy about consistent losing seasons under Frost, but the underlying numbers look good and I'm willing to see if that comes to fruition. In any case, do you feel better about being able to solve penalty/turnover mistakes, or figuring out a way to not let a D2 LB run for 200 yards as a QB? We have come a long way, and it sucks that the record doesn't show it. I'm betting it will before long.

 

I wouldn't classify myself as an angry fan, but I do think it's dangerous to evaluate the situation based upon "what could have been." Yes, we have lost many close games, but many of the few games we have won have also been close. Frost's 11-20 could also easily be 7-24. To me, the eye test is important. You can look at historical stats and recruiting rankings 'til you're blue in the face, but if the product you see on the field every week looks the same, it becomes pretty clear that "progress" is just a mirage created by those who want to see Coach succeed. That is human nature. Anyone but Scott Frost would be justifiably on a very hot seat right now. On the other hand, it would not be smart to gamble on catching lightning in a bottle with a new coach without giving it another year or two to see if things get turned around.

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2 minutes ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

Wouldn’t one assume 3 cycles is enough time to fix depth issues? Year 1 is the year to complain about depth issues. Year 2 maybe. Year 3 and it’s self inflicted. 

Typically, I would agree, but his first year wasn't a full cycle and half the players weren't recruited by him and his 3rd year dealt with the covid restrictions, which I'm sure hurt a lot of teams recruiting. Frost also cannot force out non-contributors that were Riley recruits, and I also think he was relying heavily on JUCO's, a lot of which didn't work out.

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Just now, luvthecorn said:

I wouldn't classify myself as an angry fan, but I do think it's dangerous to evaluate the situation based upon "what could have been." Yes, we have lost many close games, but many of the few games we have won have also been close. Frost's 11-20 could also easily be 7-24. To me, the eye test is important. You can look at historical stats and recruiting rankings 'til you're blue in the face, but if the product you see on the field every week looks the same, it becomes pretty clear that "progress" is just a mirage created by those who want to see Coach succeed. That is human nature. Anyone but Scott Frost would be justifiably on a very hot seat right now. On the other hand, it would not be smart to gamble on catching lightning in a bottle with a new coach without giving it another year or two to see if things get turned around.

 

True, and I'm trying to frame it more as a reason for hope moving forward. We have not been good enough, but there are signs that could change. Unlike Riley's good year, when all signs pointed to it being a bit of a fluke. And I do think it is a stretch to say the product on the field has looked the same. There are still frustrating self-inflicted wounds for sure, but I wouldn't say the progress is a mirage. I understand why others would feel differently there though.

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1 hour ago, YetiJR said:

Nebraska fans, "We have no depth at receiver!!!!," 6 Mike Riley WR recruits transfer, 50% of which before frost gets to campus.

 

Frost's WR Recruits

2018:

  • Jaron Woodyard commits after Frost's hire. Transfers to Marshall. 
  • Andre Hunt commits after Frost's hire. Never played, expelled.
  • Justin McGriff commits after Frost's hire. Transfers to Utah State.
  • Mike Williams commits after Frost's hire. 17 catches in 2 years.
  • Dominick Watts commits after Frost's hire. Never makes it to campus. 

2019:

  • Demariyon Houston. Hasn't played?
  • Kanawoi Noa. 17 receptions in 1 year here.

2020:

  • Zavier Betts. 12 receptions, 131 yards, 1 TD. 
  • Marcus Fleming. Transferring. 
  • Omar Manning...
  • Alante Brown. 1 reception. 
  • William Nixon. Knee injury, has not played.

Maybe, just maybe, Mike Riley isn't our problem with WR retention and production over 3 years after his departure. Or we can keep rationalizing for Frost.

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1 hour ago, luvthecorn said:

I wouldn't classify myself as an angry fan, but I do think it's dangerous to evaluate the situation based upon "what could have been." Yes, we have lost many close games, but many of the few games we have won have also been close. Frost's 11-20 could also easily be 7-24. To me, the eye test is important. You can look at historical stats and recruiting rankings 'til you're blue in the face, but if the product you see on the field every week looks the same, it becomes pretty clear that "progress" is just a mirage created by those who want to see Coach succeed. That is human nature. Anyone but Scott Frost would be justifiably on a very hot seat right now. On the other hand, it would not be smart to gamble on catching lightning in a bottle with a new coach without giving it another year or two to see if things get turned around.

 

I completely agree with your post luvthecorn.   The ultimate stat is the Win/Loss record, but beyond that, looking at teams stats and the trends for points scored and points allowed, Frost has the program trending in the wrong direction in Year 3.  I have a feeling if Mike Riley was our coach over these past 3 years (with the record and stats we are seeing) and did not have prior ties to Nebraska, there would be far more criticism of him and more calls for him to be fired.  

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3 minutes ago, QMany said:

 

Frost's WR Recruits

2018:

  • Jaron Woodyard commits after Frost's hire. Transfers to Marshall. 
  • Andre Hunt commits after Frost's hire. Never played, expelled.
  • Justin McGriff commits after Frost's hire. Transfers to Utah State.
  • Mike Williams commits after Frost's hire. 17 catches in 2 years.
  • Dominick Watts commits after Frost's hire. Never makes it to campus. 

2019:

  • Demariyon Houston. Hasn't played?
  • Kanawoi Noa. 17 receptions in 1 year here.

2020:

  • Zavier Betts. 12 receptions, 131 yards, 1 TD. 
  • Marcus Fleming. Transferring. 
  • Omar Manning...
  • Alante Brown. 1 reception. 
  • William Nixon. Knee injury, has not played.

Maybe, just maybe, Mike Riley isn't our problem with WR retention and production over 3 years after his departure. Or we can keep rationalizing for Frost.

 

Missing Wan'Dale... but maybe, just maybe that doesn't fit your agenda. 

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4 minutes ago, QMany said:

 

Frost's WR Recruits

2018:

  • Jaron Woodyard commits after Frost's hire. Transfers to Marshall. 
  • Andre Hunt commits after Frost's hire. Never played, gone.
  • Justin McGriff commits after Frost's hire. Transfers to Utah State.
  • Mike Williams commits after Frost's hire. 17 catches in 2 years.
  • Dominick Watts commits after Frost's hire. Never makes it to campus. 

2019:

  • Demariyon Houston. Hasn't played?
  • Kanawoi Noa. 17 receptions in 1 year here.

2020:

  • Zavier Betts. 12 receptions (5 Purdue), 131 yards, 1 TD. 
  • Marcus Fleming. Transferring. 
  • Omar Manning...
  • Alante Brown. 1 reception. 
  • William Nixon. Knee injury, has not played.

Maybe, just maybe, Mike Riley isn't our problem with WR retention and production over 3 years after his departure. Or we can keep rationalizing for Frost.

 

Great post and summary!

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Just now, QMany said:

 

Frost's WR Recruits

2018:

  • Jaron Woodyard commits after Frost's hire. Transfers to Marshall. Shot in the dark juco to try and fill a need
  • Andre Hunt commits after Frost's hire. Never played, gone. On track to contribute, absolute POS though apparently
  • Justin McGriff commits after Frost's hire. Transfers to Utah State. Recruited at TE I believe, he was at WR initially though
  • Mike Williams commits after Frost's hire. 17 catches in 2 years. Shot in the dark juco to try and fill a need
  • Dominick Watts commits after Frost's hire. Never makes it to campus. 

2019:

  • Demariyon Houston. Hasn't played?
  • Jamie Nance - hasn't played
  • Darien Chase - was playing, transferred to be closer to home
  • Kanawoi Noa. 17 receptions in 1 year here. 
  • Wan'Dale - best player on our offense

2020:

  • Zavier Betts. 12 receptions (5 Purdue), 131 yards, 1 TD. 
  • Marcus Fleming. Transferring. 
  • Omar Manning... Injured
  • Alante Brown. 1 reception. Playing
  • William Nixon. Knee injury, has not played.

Maybe, just maybe, Mike Riley isn't our problem with WR retention and production over 3 years after his departure. Or we can keep rationalizing for Frost.

 

This staff missed in 2018-19, but Woodyard, Williams, and Noa were only meant to be stop gaps. Hunt, Watt, and Chase actually look like they were going to be solid, but didn't work out for various reasons. And it's a little early for Houston/Nance, but the upperclassmen should be

  • Spielman
  • Lindsey
  • Keyshawn Jr.
  • McQuitty
  • Grim

Frost and co are not blameless, but a bigger factor in the lack of WRs is still the Riley guys. Stop gaps and replacements are always going to be higher risk than keeping kids. I've said it before - there's an alternate universe where Spielman, Lindsey, Wan'Dale, Chase, and Manning form one of the most exciting receiving corps in the conference. That didn't happen, but it's not like this staff just didn't recruit receivers. I don't think anyone saw the situations with Hunt or Chase coming, and unless we're blaming this staff for injuries you're being a little harsh on Omar and Nixon.

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6 minutes ago, QMany said:

Or just maybe he was listed as an All Purpose Back on 247, which is part of their Running Back group. 

 

He was recruited as Duck-R, which is primarily receiver. McCaffrey is listed as an athlete, would you exclude him from a summary of our QB recruiting?

 

Also forgot you left out Falck and Martin this year, and Warner/Liewer as walk-ons. People can hate on them all they want, they have not been our problem the latter part of this year.

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Agreed with @Husker in WI above, Riley's staff was to blame for the poor depth at the receiver spot initially. Striking out with all the big names they pursued set us back quite a bit. Same goes for offensive line and their big miss with Foster Sarell as they would go all in on top guys, miss and scramble to find replacements. This was how Chris Walker got a scholarship versus a greyshirt or walk-on.

 

Now, Frost & Co. tried finding some bandaids that ended up being less productive than hoped. I also think the Hunt/LeGrone situation severely hurt us as Hunt was expected to be a starter last season and LeGrone was in the rotation top 5-6. Those two being kicked out put the staff behind the 8-ball and pushed Noa out wide. Thankfully they are addressing the issue with the past couple classes that will hopefully translate to better success next year and beyond. 

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