A Different Look at Our Defense - Yards Per Play by Opponent

[JJ Husker]

Interesting, thanks for posting. Looking at yards per helps put some things in context but I still think total yards and points allowed are what is of paramount importance. But those things are not necessarily strictly related to defensive performance. If your offense can't sustain drives and stay on the field, the other team will have more offensive opportunities. If you have more giveaways than takeaways, same thing, the other team will have more opportunities to gain yards. Kicking game, field position, etc. There's lots of things that could contribute to lower yards per play averages while also contributing to more yards and more points allowed. Like most things, the whole picture has to be taken into account.

 

[Enhance]

Interesting, thanks for posting. Looking at yards per helps put some things in context but I still think total yards and points allowed are what is of paramount importance. But those things are not necessarily strictly related to defensive performance. If your offense can't sustain drives and stay on the field, the other team will have more offensive opportunities. If you have more giveaways than takeaways, same thing, the other team will have more opportunities to gain yards. Kicking game, field position, etc. There's lots of things that could contribute to lower yards per play averages while also contributing to more yards and more points allowed. Like most things, the whole picture has to be taken into account.

Well said. To go off of what you're saying, I'll add that I don't personally put much weight into the sheer volume of passes we've faced compared to the lower amount of run plays we've faced. Yeah, we're facing more passes, but this to me is a direct result of teams game planning against us. We've proven that yards on the ground aren't going to be easy to come by, so teams are having to air it out more. So, while we have faced an onslaught of passes, part of it is because our pass defense has been so poor.

I would also say we've been in the precarious position this season most games where we have a lead in the fourth with only a little time left meaning opponents all but have to abandon the run game.

 

[BigRedBuster]

I'm curious as to what would constitute a "significant difference." Just practically speaking, +0.3 and +0.2 don't really mean much (they have to run the ball 5 times just to pick up an extra 1.5 yards) and probably shouldn't be treated much differently than 0, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

I agree. Probably anything below 0.5 yards per rush is basically nothing. Not sure about passing. Probably a couple clicks more than that.

I was mainly curious about whether we were really stopping the run or just not facing running teams. Since we generally haven't "stopped" the run any better than the other teams that these teams have played, I'm not sure we've been as good as it seems like. And, by the same token, a lot of the passing yards have been because teams are throwing a lot.

The average passing attempts faced by a FBS team to date, only in games against other FBS teams, is 183.24...and one standard deviation is 37.28. Nebraska has faced 310 passing attempts.

The average rushing attempts is 222 and one standard deviation is 40. Nebraska has faced 198.

Teams are passing a lot more on Nebraska than average but they're not running less to a comparable extent. The average number of plays a defense has faced is 405 with a standard deviation equal to 59.9. Nebraska has had 508 plays run against them...so that helps explain that.

Interesting. Does this take into account that many teams may have had a bye week? If you did this actually for plays per game, it may help.

Thanks,

The total defense category doesn't have a plays per game category...but there are always total yardage and total yardage per game figures in the other categories (such that I just consider those to account for the disparity in the number of games played). The average number of games played (by FBS teams against FBS teams) is six with a standard deviation of 1. Considering we have 128 teams, though, I figure there shouldn't be any huge miss because of the matter of both bye weeks and weeks teams played FCS (?) teams. It's a fair point, of course.

Understand. I just think that we are in the very small minority of programs that have not had a bye week yet. So, when I was looking at the average number of plays faced was 405 and we have faced 508 but the average games played is 6 and we have played 7, the actual number of plays per game might not be that far off from the average.

 

[beorach]

I'm curious as to what would constitute a "significant difference." Just practically speaking, +0.3 and +0.2 don't really mean much (they have to run the ball 5 times just to pick up an extra 1.5 yards) and probably shouldn't be treated much differently than 0, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

I agree. Probably anything below 0.5 yards per rush is basically nothing. Not sure about passing. Probably a couple clicks more than that.

I was mainly curious about whether we were really stopping the run or just not facing running teams. Since we generally haven't "stopped" the run any better than the other teams that these teams have played, I'm not sure we've been as good as it seems like. And, by the same token, a lot of the passing yards have been because teams are throwing a lot.

The average passing attempts faced by a FBS team to date, only in games against other FBS teams, is 183.24...and one standard deviation is 37.28. Nebraska has faced 310 passing attempts.

The average rushing attempts is 222 and one standard deviation is 40. Nebraska has faced 198.

Teams are passing a lot more on Nebraska than average but they're not running less to a comparable extent. The average number of plays a defense has faced is 405 with a standard deviation equal to 59.9. Nebraska has had 508 plays run against them...so that helps explain that.

Interesting. Does this take into account that many teams may have had a bye week? If you did this actually for plays per game, it may help.

Thanks,

The total defense category doesn't have a plays per game category...but there are always total yardage and total yardage per game figures in the other categories (such that I just consider those to account for the disparity in the number of games played). The average number of games played (by FBS teams against FBS teams) is six with a standard deviation of 1. Considering we have 128 teams, though, I figure there shouldn't be any huge miss because of the matter of both bye weeks and weeks teams played FCS (?) teams. It's a fair point, of course.

Understand. I just think that we are in the very small minority of programs that have not had a bye week yet. So, when I was looking at the average number of plays faced was 405 and we have faced 508 but the average games played is 6 and we have played 7, the actual number of plays per game might not be that far off from the average.

You are correct. The number of teams that have played seven games against FBS teams is just 16. There are four teams that have only played four...and only one of those is a P5 one (North Carolina). I appreciate that thought because it makes things seem better than they did at first blush (or however you say that).

 

[BigRedBuster]

BTW...I appreciate your input. I am one who loves statistics. There are a gazillion ways to look at something using statistics and every time you do it differently you have the potential to learn something. Then, when you take that and step back and say...hmmmm....."how is that affecting the big picture?" it can be very interesting.

And.....many times you realize what you think you are seeing with the all famous "eye test" isn't really what you are seeing.

 

[beorach]

Thanks for the discussion and appreciation. I'm glad there's a place for it here. Like a lot of you, I expect, I've been to a few Husker boards since this whole internet thing caught on...and it's always a mixed bag. As for the stats, I just wish it was easier to find what you're looking for sometimes. Strength of schedule is probably the biggest hurdle to trying to figure things out but then, for example, I was hearing some discussion on the radio of how much better the Husker offense performs relative to how snaps are handled...and I've got no idea where to go find out the number under center versus shotgun. Back to SOS, I thought this was about as interesting as any of the links I've checked out in relation to it:

http://www.footballperspective.com/week-seven-2015-college-football-srs-ratings-baylor-takes-top-spot/