AgreedRemember entering last season when I said Purdue would have about the same record as the year before, even though I expected them to play much better? That’s because the previous year they were really overrated, their performance was no where near their win total. So when they improved their performance, the expected win total didn’t change much because it just kinda corrected for the flukiness of the year before.
Nebraska was the opposite last year, the performance was better than the win total. So it’s nowhere near the jump it seems just looking at the record. A 4-6 win improvement on paper looks huge, but it wouldn’t take a lot of improvement to get there because last year’s record is so deceiving. That’s exactly why so many outlets are putting Nebraska on Top 25 lists.
I don’t think anyone disagrees that the defense has to make that leap, but defenses in college football make huge swings in either direction all of the time. Defenses are very swingy both because turnovers themselves are swingy but also because small mistakes get hugely amplified. How many times do you see a guy run for 40 when he should have been tackled for 3? Little things on that side have big implications.
in 2018 we were better than our record indicated- we will net up several wins just because of that in 2019
in 2017 our record reflected who we were
the following year we had the same record but much better point differential
in 2016 our record overstated how good we were- the following year we netted down 5 games
in 2015 our record understated how good we were the next year we netted up 3 more wins
over time the “ luck” factor evens out
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