Cincinnati: What Did We Learn?
- Thread starter Mavric
- Start date
SuperBigFan69
Head Coach
When mathletes get into football!
Crusader Husker
All-Conference
To go with the math theme, guessing teach doesn't educate students in that area? 
We do really need to improve our yards per rush and yards per pass play.
We do really need to improve our yards per rush and yards per pass play.
The_Fan_Man
Four-Star Recruit
Net Success Rate is a pretty simple; do they get 50% of the yards to a first down on 1st (generally 5 yards), 70% of the yards on 2nd down, and 100% of the yards to gain for 3rd and 4th down. It does not punish turnovers and does not reward big plays or touchdowns. It's really a measure of what percent of plays are you "on schedule." There might be a small bit about EPA (estimated points added per play) that the play must also be greater than 0 (increases expectation of win per play) on Parker Fleming's model but that is just a small change to the overall number.
So, for example, throwing 10 straight plays of 6 yards to get a touchdown and a single 60 yard touchdown would both give you a value of 1.0. But then on the next drive if you go three and out with no yards gained then punt. The longer drive would give you a value of 0.77 while the one big play gives you 0.25. Even if you went 9 straight plays of 6 yards and then had a turnover, the overall Net Success Rate would be higher with the 13 plays (0.69) than the 4 plays (0.25).
The model is generally successful in reflecting how the game went but you look at USF's 34-7 victory over Boise State as the least impressive win on a per play basis and you can see where this model has its flaws. USF had a bunch of nothing drives and then big touchdown plays where Boise State had consistent drives that ended in eight drives ending in USF territory (4 on downs, 3 on fumbles, and 1 to end the game).
So, for example, throwing 10 straight plays of 6 yards to get a touchdown and a single 60 yard touchdown would both give you a value of 1.0. But then on the next drive if you go three and out with no yards gained then punt. The longer drive would give you a value of 0.77 while the one big play gives you 0.25. Even if you went 9 straight plays of 6 yards and then had a turnover, the overall Net Success Rate would be higher with the 13 plays (0.69) than the 4 plays (0.25).
The model is generally successful in reflecting how the game went but you look at USF's 34-7 victory over Boise State as the least impressive win on a per play basis and you can see where this model has its flaws. USF had a bunch of nothing drives and then big touchdown plays where Boise State had consistent drives that ended in eight drives ending in USF territory (4 on downs, 3 on fumbles, and 1 to end the game).
BIG ERN
All-American
I was pretty disappointed in our LBs overall. Watson-Trent just didn't look to have much, Wright in run fits was hit or miss. Shavers for the most part played pretty well. RVP and Jeudy weren't effective on the DL, especially Jeudy. George wasn't getting any push. Davis and Lenhardt made some good plays. WN made a few alright moves. Overall the pressure from our defense was awful. Butler will need to figure something out there and we are small for a 3 man front which we knew coming into the season. Will need to have more 4 man fronts imo. Pass defense looked fine but were rarely tested.
I felt like Turner was clearly #3 at LT. Teddy was pretty solid at RT and was good to see him back. Pass blocking was pretty solid the whole game. I thought Raiola and EJ played fine. Hunter and Key are positives and def more along than the two transfer WRs from last year.
Game 1s are always goofy, especially for the offense, so I still feel pretty good about the offense. It is evident as of now that losing Dowdell was big, and also missing out on Brown from NDSU. Hopefully M. Nelson can show something going fwd.
But hey, we lose those games all the time so it was nice to see a W.
I felt like Turner was clearly #3 at LT. Teddy was pretty solid at RT and was good to see him back. Pass blocking was pretty solid the whole game. I thought Raiola and EJ played fine. Hunter and Key are positives and def more along than the two transfer WRs from last year.
Game 1s are always goofy, especially for the offense, so I still feel pretty good about the offense. It is evident as of now that losing Dowdell was big, and also missing out on Brown from NDSU. Hopefully M. Nelson can show something going fwd.
But hey, we lose those games all the time so it was nice to see a W.
