Dylan Raiola

[admo]

From a ref standpoint, shoulda been holding on USC or illegal contact. Due has his hands on Hunter way past five yards and impedes his progress at 10 yards.

Do we know what route break he was running (post, dig, etc). Cause a try post pattern would have been fine to throw given the safety wasn’t over the top. Did route a different story and would be throwing into coverage.

I agree. I bet if DR throws it to our WR (shown at the bottom of the screen) the refs throw a flag. Either holding right away or DPI. But since he did not attempt to pass the ball, no penalty called.

 

[krc1995]

My suspiscion, based on many indirect comments by coaches, is that there were many things done to benefit the DR at the expense of the N.

This is the most succinct way to put my thoughts on why ej didn’t truly emerge until after Dylan left.

 

[admo]

When?! Screenshots without showing the receivers are meaningless.

Watch this view, Hunter is not open until the pressure is already there. It's a pick six if he throws it right as Hunter comes out of his break. I think Key is the receiver you're talking about running right to left across the field, and he hasn't even broken across the field when your exhibit says Raiola should have thrown it. If he doesn't get knocked down maybe you can just loft this up to the goal line, but he does get knocked down.


Hunter is just out of his break here, and there is no window to throw:
View attachment 23258

Hunter does a good job of working inside to uncover himself, but at that point Raiola has already been hit. And with guys unblocked from each edge and Corcoran losing ground up the middle, I don't think "just buy more time!" is valid here.

The screenshot clearly shows the receiver at the bottom of the screen and the direction of the route with no safety help over the top. That's one on one coverage and you throw to the spot or ahead of the spot. Which allows the WR to make the play. I am sorry I cannot tell who that player is. But the guy at the bottom of the screen is the target.

He should have thrown it. He should have thrown it right away. You don't hesitate and wait for him to get open or wait for him to look back. Only high schoolers and backyard QBs do that. The NFL QBs do not wait and most college QBs throw with anticipation too. It's day 1 stuff.

I don't know what you are seeing but there was a target, covered or not, it does not matter. There is no help over the top. It's our WR vs USC corner. And you take that matchup every time. Or you hold the ball and get sacked.

 

[lo country]

I don't think they are rumors. I think he had the liberty to check based on defensive look.

Against MN we had 3 pass plays on our first drive and then punted. I recall Rhule stating after the game that DR checked into at least 1 pass and the WR didn't get the call because the WRs were blocking when DR dropped back (and ended up taking a sack).

Here's an early article after the Cincy game. Rhule talks about Dylan giving the freedom to make checks:

Rhule said Raiola showed maturity to begin his second season as the starting quarterback, but still just a sophomore. He also liked that his QB was just playing the position and not "trying to make cowboy plays." With that maturity and trust, Raiola has earned the right to make checks as he sees them in games.

"We give him a ton of freedom," Rhule said. "He he has more freedom than most quarterbacks in the country probably have. And he's right most of the time. He's right more than I would be so I'll take it."

Matt Rhule Breaks Down Nebraska Quarterback Dylan Raiola's Season-Opening Performance

LINCOLN—Usually, when you throw the ball more than 40 times, you're either trailing or have an air raid coach. While Dana Holgorsen is the Nebraska offensive co

www.si.com

 

[Husker_In_WI]

The screenshot clearly shows the receiver at the bottom of the screen and the direction of the route with no safety help over the top. That's one on one coverage and you throw to the spot or ahead of the spot. Which allows the WR to make the play. I am sorry I cannot tell who that player is. But the guy at the bottom of the screen is the target.

He should have thrown it. He should have thrown it right away. You don't hesitate and wait for him to get open or wait for him to look back. Only high schoolers and backyard QBs do that. The NFL QBs do not wait and most college QBs throw with anticipation too. It's day 1 stuff.

I don't know what you are seeing but there was a target, covered or not, it does not matter. There is no help over the top. It's our WR vs USC corner. And you take that matchup every time. Or you hold the ball and get sacked.

The guy at the bottom of the screen is running a curl, so not really sure why no safety help matters. I don't know what to tell you, I guess we just disagree.

This is the play, Key is up top and Hunter is down below. I don't think Hunter is the primary read, I don't think throwing over the top to him because of the safeties coming down makes sense when he runs a curl, I don't think throwing the curl makes sense because it is undercut as he makes his break. The play set up well for Key to just run away from his guy over the top of Hunter (and I assume that was the primary read), but he fell down.



Any throw just to try and draw a flag risks 1) being intercepted and a flag not thrown, they were letting the DBs play for the most part, or 2) being called intentional grounding because no receiver was close. The ball does not need to be thrown for the refs to call defensive holding or illegal contact (only PI), so if they didn't throw the flag as the play happened it's unlikely they would have if he did get a pass off. In hindsight outcome #2 would be better than what did happen, but I do not know what to tell you if you look at this and say "just throw it!"


This isn't Madden or NCAA 25 where if you throw the ball early enough before their break the receiver magically changes their route - Hunter is not running a go, he's getting deep enough to make sure the DB sticks with him and then sitting down for Key to run by.

EDIT: I will admit the route is drawn poorly and in the second screenshot here it looks like Key breaks way in front of where Hunter will end up. But if you watch the play he's just trying to out leverage the DBs, he works back upfield before getting knocked down.

 

[admo]

The guy at the bottom of the screen is running a curl, so not really sure why no safety help matters. I don't know what to tell you, I guess we just disagree.

This is the play, Key is up top and Hunter is down below. I don't think Hunter is the primary read, I don't think throwing over the top to him because of the safeties coming down makes sense when he runs a curl, I don't think throwing the curl makes sense because it is undercut as he makes his break. The play set up well for Key to just run away from his guy over the top of Hunter (and I assume that was the primary read), but he fell down.

View attachment 23259

Any throw just to try and draw a flag risks 1) being intercepted and a flag not thrown, they were letting the DBs play for the most part, or 2) being called intentional grounding because no receiver was close. The ball does not need to be thrown for the refs to call defensive holding or illegal contact (only PI), so if they didn't throw the flag as the play happened it's unlikely they would have if he did get a pass off. In hindsight outcome #2 would be better than what did happen, but I do not know what to tell you if you look at this and say "just throw it!"
View attachment 23260

This isn't Madden or NCAA 25 where if you throw the ball early enough before their break the receiver magically changes their route - Hunter is not running a go, he's getting deep enough to make sure the DB sticks with him and then sitting down for Key to run by.

EDIT: I will admit the route is drawn poorly and in the second screenshot here it looks like Key breaks way in front of where Hunter will end up. But if you watch the play he's just trying to out leverage the DBs, he works back upfield before getting knocked down.

Yeah we have different takes. We disagree. No big deal.

He's not running a curl. DR had time with protection. Exhibit C, D, E proved it. Key is running underneath and around the safeties.

And I haven't played Madden since 98 on Sega Genesis.

 

[caveman99]

He absolutely should have gotten out of the pocket and thrown it away, but that whole play was a mess. It was a two man route, and one of the receivers got knocked down by a backpedaling defender. The other route was just a curl, nothing doing. There are many examples of him needing to make faster decisions and just throw the ball away (many of Minnesota's 9 sacks were directly on him), but he really wasn't the problem on that specific play. To the best of my timing ability, this is what it looked like 3 seconds after the snap, which is a reasonable time to wait for a play-action shot. Neither of the outlet TEs have even leaked out yet.
View attachment 23247

View attachment 23248

You've got a free rusher on the right, your LT and RB on the ground watching their guy run by on the left, your RT getting bullrushed in front of you, one receiver double covered and the other double covered and falling down. Tackle box is also just outside the hash, so a ways to go before he can just launch it into the stands. This play is up there on the list of worst overall plays by the entire team (including the playcaller), but Raiola's fault in it is pretty minimal IMO.

Again, he absolutely does hold the ball way too long and takes unnecessary sacks. Not sure what he was supposed to do on this specifc play though, he chooses to try and step up to buy space to get a throw off - that had a chance if Corcoran wasn't getting steamrolled. I don't think he makes it around the blitzer to get out of the pocket. Probably should have curled up in the fetal position here.

Well the first thing Dylan should have done is NOT check into the PA pass they ran. The original play call was a run, Dylan checked it into a pass.

 

[Husker_In_WI]

Well the first thing Dylan should have done is NOT check into the PA pass they ran. The original play call was a run, Dylan checked it into a pass.

I think that's revisionist history. Yeah, with the benefit of hindsight running 3 times and kicking the field goal if USC stopped it would've been better. But it's also hard not to look at this and think we can get a guy open overtop for a kill shot.


And even if that doesn't work, you figure the worst reasonably likely scenario is a sack for 2nd and 17 or so still within field goal range - not sack/fumble/broken leg. Again I expect the run and the PA pass are called in tandem, the default is run but the intent is for him to check to the pass if it's a good look. It was a good look until the play happened.

 

[Undone]

But it's also hard not to look at this and think we can get a guy open overtop for a kill shot.

Play calling/audibling still has to have context around odds, though. And our percentages on making those post routes/deep routes connect on early downs really wasn't that good throughout the season, IMO.

It's frustrating to not just see a handoff to your superstar RB on 1st & 10 on the opponent's 23 yard line for me. I know it's easy to call this out as hindsight analysis but I think it's also a really good point.

Regardless of the broken leg & fumble, the odds that Raiola actually connects on that play is very low, IMO. It's the same conversation as with the Minnesota game. Lots of decision making failures - regardless of whether the look from the defense was good or not - based on odds.

Your analysis is some of the best on this board (definitely better than mine in terms of X's & O's for sure), but I think factoring in odds of success on some of these calls & decisions is missing from the larger conversation.

 

[Husker_In_WI]

Play calling/audibling still has to have context around odds, though. And our percentages on making those post routes/deep routes connect on early downs really wasn't that good throughout the season, IMO.

It's frustrating to not just see a handoff to your superstar RB on 1st & 10 on the opponent's 23 yard line for me.

Regardless of the broken leg & fumble, the odds that Raiola actually connects on that play is very low, IMO. It's the same conversation as with the Minnesota game. Lots of decision making failures - regardless of whether the look from the defense was good or not - based on odds.

Your analysis is some of the best on this board (definitely better than mine in terms of X's & O's for sure), but I think factoring in odds of success on some of these calls & decisions is missing from the larger conversation.

That's fair. I do think some of it is the best teams do this so we need to and/or we want to run the play that should work the best. But I'm probably not factoring in the issues we had throwing the ball downfield and how good EJ was heavily enough.

It wasn't exactly the same situation, but I think about Indiana in the Big Ten championship taking a shot on 3rd and 2 from their own 20. That was gutsy, and sparked their go ahead TD. That's who we were trying to be on offense, and Raiola or Holgorsen or Rhule apparently never came to the conclusion that we just weren't built like that. It's a balance between limiting ourselves (you miss 100% of the shots you don't take and all that) and beating our head against a wall trying the same things that we can't execute. We definitely erred to far to the latter in general last year, I will admit that.

 

[Undone]

It wasn't exactly the same situation, but I think about Indiana in the Big Ten championship taking a shot on 3rd and 2 from their own 20. That was gutsy, and sparked their go ahead TD. That's who we were trying to be on offense, and Raiola or Holgorsen or Rhule apparently never came to the conclusion that we just weren't built like that. It's a balance between limiting ourselves (you miss 100% of the shots you don't take and all that) and beating our head against a wall trying the same things that we can't execute. We definitely erred to far to the latter in general last year, I will admit that.

Yep; Fernando Mendoza is just a different guy than Raiola is.

And also, we were up 14-6. For me that’s “grind out two running plays even though they know it’s coming and lean on Johnson,” and then if you’re in 3rd & long because your two consecutive run plays didn’t work, you throw at that point.

Just absolutely painful looking at that play unfold so needlessly like it did. Almost kind of a microcosm of Rhule’s offenses here so far.

Hopefully, rolling with a QB next season that isn’t a primadonna helps there in some respects, but I still feel leery of Rhule’s & Holgorsen’s abilities to put a competent offense together for us after watching some of this stuff play out.

 

[Toe]

But does Rhule and Co take him back....

 

[BaytownHusker]

Yep; Fernando Mendoza is just a different guy than Raiola is.

And also, we were up 14-6. For me that’s “grind out two running plays even though they know it’s coming and lean on Johnson,” and then if you’re in 3rd & long because your two consecutive run plays didn’t work, you throw at that point.

Just absolutely painful looking at that play unfold so needlessly like it did. Almost kind of a microcosm of Rhule’s offenses here so far.

Hopefully, rolling with a QB next season that isn’t a primadonna helps there in some respects, but I still feel leery of Rhule’s & Holgorsen’s abilities to put a competent offense together for us after watching some of this stuff play out.

Well this is our offense in a nutshell and 90% of Big red hated it.

 

[Undone]

Well this is our offense in a nutshell and 90% of Big red hated it.

Once Holgorsen took over, I'd say this scheme & design has been pretty good at moving the ball between the 20's.

But it's been lacking effectiveness at punching the ball into the end zone.

Maybe adding a QB with good running ability helps this for next season? I'm not sure. My worry is that it sacrifices the ability to move the ball in between the 20's if the guy can't pass well enough.

 

[Toe]

Once Holgorsen took over, I'd say this scheme & design has been pretty good at moving the ball between the 20's.

But it's been lacking effectiveness at punching the ball into the end zone.

No worries, our new OL coach's old team was #86 in the country at red zone TD conversions!