Help Me Understand why NU is a 7 point favorite

DefenderAO said:
There’s a video in another thread with Illinois players having fun and acting loosely. Scott looked tense in the presser yesterday. Coupled with Scott’s track record as a favorite, I don’t see how we’re not a 3-5 point dog. 
 

No hate, I’m hopeful, but we need to see a good product Saturday. 
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Tik Tok videos, press conference attitude, and track record against the spread are famously important in setting a betting line.

I'm sure I'm reading way too much into it, but the video and a couple comments from Bielema would have me more worried as an Illinois fan that they're not ready to go. Riley's teams were always loose and fun off the field, it's not correlated with success. It's one of those things that gets touted as a factor whether you win or lose - if Illinois wins, it's because look how much fun they were having! If they lose, look how poorly focused they were!

 
Lines aside, I think there is a realization with this coaching staff that this game is a must win.  Without a win this week, the probability of a bowl this year is unlikely.

Make no mistake, there is pressure to win this week.

 
teachercd said:
Do yourself a solid

Tease NU to -1 (or even if you can) and Ohio State to -6.5 at Minny
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I wish MGM allowed teasers.

Sometimes they will allow you to go about +/- 3 points from the actual line but not all games. So far they only have one spread, a money line and one total. Maybe closer to Saturday there will be more options?

I’m already knee deep at -7 though  :lol:  I figure if it’s the same old sh#t I won’t feel like betting the remainder of the season anyway. So, going big or going home.

 
DefenderAO said:
There’s a video in another thread with Illinois players having fun and acting loosely. Scott looked tense in the presser yesterday. Coupled with Scott’s track record as a favorite, I don’t see how we’re not a 3-5 point dog. 
 

No hate, I’m hopeful, but we need to see a good product Saturday. 
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Not sure why comparing video of their players to NU's HC makes sense, the better comparison would be to the recent interviews the NU players gave this week. IMO the NU players looked relaxed and ready, I didn't get a sense that they were tense at all. 

 
IMHO, there is a ton of pressure on NU.  Run the ball, eat the clock, win the TO battle and walk way with a much needed 1 of 6 to go bowling.  TBH, I about threw up hoping we can win 6.  As if that's really a good season.  

I think Frost is sick of hearing this crap.. I think the team is sick of hearing this crap.  I think we will see the most physical and headhunting NU team we have seen since Bo got fired.  Again IMHO, we have 15 starters on D,  The back up DB's will get as much playing time as the starters. Those boys are not playing this year.  They'll get some suspensions, but teams will learn to keep their heads in a swivel.  

 
3 Reasons from both sides why we win by 14+ 

Us

  • I have confidence our O line is going to take a pretty massive step forward this year.. continuity, natural progression of a young unit maturing compared to years past and probably most importantly- actual semblance of some depth from this unit
  • I have confidence we actually have some skill guys to get the ball to, while unproven, I feel like as a whole we have some running back options and they should be fresh and some added receiving options that simply were not there last year
  • The need to set the tone- This progrum has been guilty of letdowns in year past- its been made pretty damn clear the importance of getting off to a fast start this season knowing a pretty tough Big10 slate is waiting in addition to playing potentially the #1 and #2 team when this year is done in Ohio State and Oklahoma. 

Illinois

  • Coaching staff changes and transitions are a cluster F of a situation the first year, particularly in game 1.  I'll honestly be disappointed if we dont hang 40+ on these guys knowing both teams are fresh and there's bound to be some communication/scheme mess ups on their side getting used to a new staff 
  • Talent disadvantage- Its not really close.  Lovie Smith didn't recruit at a level needed to succeed in college
  • They have our attention- It took a lifeless performance coupled with a QB performance that closer resembled the skill set of a JV high school in luke mccaffrey last year that resulted in probably the worst loss of frostys tenure (might be behind minnesota game last year, what a strech 2020 was :(  )....... This is highly connected to my setting the tone part but if we come out flat against this sorry a$$ squad despite the embarrassment last year then frosty is done end of season...



I want the guy to succeed but this game absolutely needs to be done in the 3rd quarter to the point where Logan S gets some run and experience in game time situations.  If we come out flat and have a stinker to open the year, even in a close win, it would be a major disappointment and a harbinger of bad things to come throughout the season

 
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internetman said:
isn't it about getting equal money on both sides??? not about respect or whatever 
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This. The line opened at Neb -7.5 and moved to -7. The reason it has stayed at -7 is because people are betting relatively equally on both sides. The line has to do with how much money and on whom it is being bet. Really has very little to do with either football team. It’s just the general consensus of gamblers.

 
I’m heavy on Illinois. NU doesn’t have an identity under Frost and I have zero faith in Chin. 
Hope this is the year Huskers go bowling but I bet against that too. Whoever gets NU in their next bowl might have 70,000 Huskers in the stadium regardless of the opponent. 

 
JJ Husker said:
The thing to do, for those of you who just can’t see it, is to bet big on Illinois at +7. Hopefully there are enough of you to move the line down to 6.5 so I can put even more on Nebraska.

IMO it takes some pretty serious PTSD (which is understandable for any Husker fan) to not think Nebraska is 7 points better at this point. Illinois has a new coaching staff and relatively little proof of an offense. On D their linebackers are about the only redeeming factor. By all accounts Nebraska’s defense is supposed to be better and the offense greatly improved. But none of that matters until we prove it on the field Saturday.
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We are practicing well

 
It might be based on the value the oddsmakers have on Illinois more than anything. Some teams that are valued really low are an automatic 7-10 point underdog no matter the opponent 

 
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