Is it just me or is Michigan State not THAT good...

knapplc said:
I love all the confidence Husker fans are putting into this thread. But the base of the pyramid is defense, and Sparty has that in spades. Their offense has proven they can score points in bunches against bad defenses. Against the best offense they've faced, healthy and with all their main guns firing, Sparty's D gave up 28 points - half of which came when the game was already a blowout.

Nebraska is bringing a very injured, inconsistent and turnover-prone offense into this game. Our O Line is a patchwork and without three starters. Two thirds of our starting WR corps is hobbled, if not out entirely. We have a fantastic running back, but he's got a banged-up line blocking for him against a very stout run D.

We start a QB making his sixth career start, whose TD/INT ratio is abysmal. Whose knee is three months off being scoped. His backup is a game QB with two bad knees, who has also been known to throw ill-advised passes. The QB who torched this defense for 200+ yards last year may never take another snap for this team again.

Our defense has played great football - for the last six quarters. The six quarters before that, they gave up 55 points and over 100 yards of offense per quarter. When Sparty has faced spotty defenses they have scored around 30 points a game. If the Blackshirts who faced Michigan show up, Sparty may score no more than 10-17 points.

But against that defense, with our offense, that may be more than enough.

I'll be shouting myself hoarse for four quarters this Saturday. But I don't think a victory will be easy, and I for certain don't expect a victory.

Give Sparty props. Offensive inconsistency aside, they have a stellar defense. And that scares the crap outta me.
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Knapp, all those are tremendous points, but isn't it times like this when teams really step up? When their backs are against the walls, facing overwhelming odds? Games like this are won because they know they have nothing to lose...

 
Notre Dame Joe said:
Has NU ever won a game 3-2?
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Closest ones I could find:

1895: Lost to Kansas 4-8

1896: Beat Missouri 8-4, Beat KC Medics 6-4

1898: Lost to Drake 5-6, Lost to Iowa 5-6

1899: Lost to South Dakota 5-6

1907: Lost to Minnesota 5-8

1909: Beat Denver 6-5

So I guess we haven't fared so well in those close, low-scoring games.
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walksalone said:
Knapp, all those are tremendous points, but isn't it times like this when teams really step up? When their backs are against the walls, facing overwhelming odds? Games like this are won because they know they have nothing to lose...
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Absolutely.

Despite the odds against us, I won't be surprised if we win. We have playmakers - actual factual healthy ones - who can win this game for us.

I just think our margin of error is much smaller than Sparty's. And I don't think it's likely that we'll be on the right side of that margin.

Notably, however, I felt the same way about Northwestern, and even more so about Michigan.

So I'm not necessarily a great judge of these things.
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knapplc said:
walksalone said:
Knapp, all those are tremendous points, but isn't it times like this when teams really step up? When their backs are against the walls, facing overwhelming odds? Games like this are won because they know they have nothing to lose...
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Absolutely.

Despite the odds against us, I won't be surprised if we win. We have playmakers - actual factual healthy ones - who can win this game for us.

I just think our margin of error is much smaller than Sparty's. And I don't think it's likely that we'll be on the right side of that margin.

Notably, however, I felt the same way about Northwestern, and even more so about Michigan.

So I'm not necessarily a great judge of these things.
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Our margin of error is pretty f*cking thin, relative to Sparty, but I think that we've got a better shot than the pundants give us...

If they can find a way to run the ball against Sparty, then we'll win...

 
walksalone said:
Knapp, all those are tremendous points, but isn't it times like this when teams really step up? When their backs are against the walls, facing overwhelming odds? Games like this are won because they know they have nothing to lose...
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Times like what?

Maybe times like when they've been injury plagued for a few seasons, so close to greatness but being dealt a bad hand. When they've had their chances against a team for two years now and come up short. When they're healthy at just the right time, focused and ready to get that monkey off their back. When they're finally ready, after two seasons of near misses, to get to their highest ceiling with the perfect storm of circumstances finally going their way.

You can make just as good and just as sentimental narratives for Michigan State. It's anybody's ball game.

 
Landlord of Memorial Stadium said:
walksalone said:
Knapp, all those are tremendous points, but isn't it times like this when teams really step up? When their backs are against the walls, facing overwhelming odds? Games like this are won because they know they have nothing to lose...
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Times like what?

Maybe times like when they've been injury plagued for a few seasons, so close to greatness but being dealt a bad hand. When they've had their chances against a team for two years now and come up short. When they're healthy at just the right time, focused and ready to get that monkey off their back. When they're finally ready, after two seasons of near misses, to get to their highest ceiling with the perfect storm of circumstances finally going their way.

You can make just as good and just as sentimental narratives for Michigan State. It's anybody's ball game.
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Yeah i'm not sure I buy the whole "backs against the wall" thing. I think Nebraska will (and should) have a chip on their shoulder because you're absolutely right, nobody is giving you any respect nationally. But this is the game that in all likelihood will decide who plays in Indianapolis. Neither team should have trouble getting motivated for it. If they do, then they probably don't deserve to be in Indy.

 
These are stats from the QBs, best two RBs, and best two WRs from each team. These are the playmakers, and a very good defense shuts down those playmakers. That being said, here is where all the teams and Nebraska that Michigan State (excluding Youngstown St) has played line up according to rushing, receiving, and passing.

Rushing

1) Nebraska--174.4 yards

2) Iowa--123.2 yards

3) Michigan--115.8 yards

4) Western Michigan--107.3 yards

5) Indiana--106.4 yards

6) Notre Dame--99.8 yards

7) South Florida--73.3 yards

8) Illinois--53.9 yards

9) Purdue--36.1 yards

Receiving

1) Michigan--174.4 yards

2) Indiana--154.9 yards

3) Notre Dame--142.5 yards

4) Western Michigan--108.7 yards

5) Nebraska--102.3 yards

6) Illinois--97.7 yards

7) Purdue--76.9 yards

8) South Florida--73.8 yards

9) Iowa--66.1 yards

Passing

1) Illinois--268.8 yards

2) Notre Dame--250.4 yards

3) Michigan--242.8 yards

4) Indiana--242.4 yards

5) Iowa--191.6 yards

6) Purdue--163.8 yards

7) Nebraska--131.8 yards

8) Western Michigan--131.6 yards

9) South Florida--75.8 yards

Here are the differences from actual production against MSU and average production. Teams are ranked from biggest different to smallest difference.

Rushing

1) Michigan: -141.8 yards

2) Iowa: -108.2 yards

3) Notre Dame: -79.5 yards

4) Western Michigan: -74.3 yards

5) Illinois: -27.9 yards

6) Indiana: -27.4 yards

7) Purdue: 6.9 yards

8) South Florida: 20.7 yards

Receiving

1) Notre Dame: -121.5 yards

2) Illinois: -60.7 yards

3) Michigan: -42.4 yards

4) Indiana: -29.9 yards

5) Iowa: -13.3 yards

6) South Florida: -10.4 yards

7) Purdue: -8.9 yards

8) Western Michigan: 42.3 yards

Passing

1) Illinois: -165.8 yards

2) Notre Dame: -108.4 yards

3) Indiana: -105.4 yards

4) Michigan: -32.8 yards

5) Western Michigan: -11.6 yards

6) South Florida: -7.8 yards

7) Purdue: -3.8 yards

8) Iowa: 52.4 yards

The Spartans have held 6 teams under their averages for rushing, receiving, and passing yards, including their last four opponents. But the Spartans need to be aware of something: they have not faced a rushing attack like what Nebraska brings. That doesn't guarantee success against the Spartans front four, it is just an observation. How Nebraska spreads the ball around to its wide receivers is similar to what Western Michigan does with their receivers. The Broncos managed to go above their average in receiving yards when they played Michigan State. The Spartans are going to have to be focused on each and every one of our receivers, while still trying to account for the ever likely chance that we will run the ball. If we are efficient and execute, we will stretch and stress their defense.

 
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Landlord of Memorial Stadium said:
BIGREDIOWAN said:
deedsker said:
The biggest problem Nebraska has this year is Sam Foltz. He hasn't been having a good year and I think everyone agrees that there will be a lot of punting on Saturday.
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Yes, some of his punts have been ridiculously short.............this game is going to come down to field position and field goals IMO.
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My question is when the heck are we going to finally use our punter that can run a 4.4 40-yard-dash on a fake. Seriously.
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3 times the day after Thanksgiving, 2 of which will go for a TD. We have several games to make up for not giving one up and are well below our season average right now.

Looking forward to this Nebraska/MSU game although I am not sure who I will be cheering for. I REALLY don't like MSU but it is in Iowa's best interest to have them win this game. Given that I will be at the game I will probably get swept up in the crowd and cheer for Nebraska (also don't want my brother in law to smack me for cheering for MSU). I think Nebraska might finally run out of late game heroics though.

 
worldsworstoutdoorsman said:
I've seen a lot of stats thrown around, but I'm wondering if anybody can tell me the type of offense that Michigan State runs?
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It's a pro style offense that has adopted a few minor spread tendencies this season. A lot of traditional sets, downhill running, and pocket passing but their new quarterback is a good bit more mobile than Cousins or Maxwell were.

A lot like Minnesota, if we were to compare them to something more familiar to what we've faced.

 
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