Interesting post. I think our position now in 2021 is much different than in 2014 when Bo was fired. Back in 2014 we had a good coach that could win 9 games consistently, but the desire was to find an elite coach that could get us winning conference titles. A huge mistake was made in selecting Riley.
The program got worse with 3 years of Riley where he finished 19-19 (.500), well below the mark Pelini had set. Thus Riley was fired, and I supported that decision to let him go after 3 years as I do not believe he would have suddenly gotten better if we kept him a couple of additional years.
We then hire Frost thinking he would be an elite coach given his magical 2017 season. Frost was brought in to win division titles at a minimum, but as we all know, we are heading toward a 4th straight season with a losing record. I am curious what coaches out there had 4 straight losing season and then suddenly hit their stride and went on to become an elite coach. With the sample size we have for Frost (6 seasons), we have to predict his likely future success based upon the data we have to date. Unless a miracle happens and we finish 4-0, we will not have a winning season yet again this season, so I do not believe retaining Frost will get us back to being an elite program, and I am not even confident Frost could get us back to 9 or 10 wins every year like we had with Pelini.
So in terms of where to go from here, we should always strive for an experienced elite coach, but if that is not feasible, we should at least pursue a coach that will yield consistent 9/10 win seasons which would be a building block. It's not an easy situation at all, but I feel hanging onto Frost is simply delaying the inevitable as he likely would get to a winning season next year because we have the easiest schedule in a decade, but then 2023 the schedule gets a bit tougher and in 2024 its absolutely brutal (Michigan, OSU and Penn State are the crossover games). I would not keep Frost 3 more seasons to be mired in mediocrity simply because we are afraid to fire a former player or we are afraid of his buyout.