The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election

Who will you vote for in November - new ballot:

  • Harris

    Votes: 28 71.8%

  • Trump

    Votes: 3 7.7%

  • Kennedy

    Votes: 5 12.8%

  • Other

    Votes: 3 7.7%
  • Total voters
    39
Moiraine said:
This is going to be a blowout. 

Miami-Dade shifted 19 points to the right. 

Harris is behind in PA now. 

I think the herding was toward the middle away from Trump. 
Click to expand...
This probably correct, the polls will have undercounted Trump support by ~2.5% or so. A polling miss within the margin of error, but in Trump's favor for the third straight time.

I've been saying this was going to happen to everybody who would listen, I just don't think campaigns or candidates really matter that much. I genuinely don't think there's anything Trump could've said or done that would've caused him to lose the election. And I genuinely mean that. Outside of literally a video tape of him doing absolutely heinous things, nothing mattered. 

 
Not sure if the NYT forecast truly has WI, PA, and MI as tossups right now or they’re forcing them to stay as tossups because they want more views for more hours, or are scared for them to move. 

I do know PA still does not start counting mail in ballots until the day of the election so it’s actually possible Harris still has a chance there. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I heard one commentator say that if Harris loses this is squarely on Biden because of his ego he prevented a full primary that would have passed the torch to the next generation. 

 
TGHusker said:
Or maybe Biden should not have run at all and allowed a full blown primary of next generation candidates 
Click to expand...
On one hand yes, on the other... this election is so decisive that I don't think it mattered. 

Inflation made voters really mad, and Democrats were in charge when it happened. They were destined to lose simply because the circumstances favored Republicans. 

Perhaps a better candidate would've kept the margins closer, but ultimately it wouldn't have mattered. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Black men are surprisingly conservative. Ultimately, the Democrat coalition collapsed tonight.

You can't try to have a party simultaneously trying to appeal to college educated white women in California AND non-college black men in the rust belt. 

Democrats are going to have to regroup. I don't think these issues ultimately mattered, but I found Democrat stances on culture war topics like trans issues to be way out of line. They also failed to recognize their weakness on immigration way to late.

When the Democratic Party makes voters like me scoff at their position on an issue, it means they have lost the plot. 

 
Dr. Strangelove said:
Black men are surprisingly conservative. Ultimately, the Democrat coalition collapsed tonight.

You can't try to have a party simultaneously trying to appeal to college educated white women in California AND non-college black men in the rust belt. 

Democrats are going to have to regroup. I don't think these issues ultimately mattered, but I found Democrat stances on culture war topics like trans issues to be way out of line. They also failed to recognize their weakness on immigration way to late.

When the Democratic Party makes voters like me scoff at their position on an issue, it means they have lost the plot. 
Click to expand...






Even ignoring trans issues which are a tiny subset, they probably also spend way too much time talking about the issues of 7% of the population (LGBTQ in general). It's good to stand up for the underrepresented, and I think that helps them even with people not in those groups, but you may lose elections if you spend way too much of your time focused on it.

But I will also say that the Republicans blow it up to be a bigger thing that it actually is. They've perfected making the Democrats look like they're making a bigger deal of something than they actually are. E.g. they started the trans bathroom thing years ago in NC and made it look like a thing the Democrats were trying to do and really cared about. Not really sure what the answer is though. Try to play the same game? I wish the general population wasn't so stupid. If they weren't, this stuff wouldn't work.

 
Moiraine said:
Even ignoring trans issues which are a tiny subset, they probably also spend way too much time talking about the issues of 7% of the population (LGBTQ in general). It's good to stand up for the underrepresented, and I think that helps them even with people not in those groups, but you may lose elections if you spend way too much of your time focused on it.

But I will also say that the Republicans blow it up to be a bigger thing that it actually is. They've perfected making the Democrats look like they're making a bigger deal of something than they actually are. E.g. they started the trans bathroom thing years ago in NC and made it look like a thing the Democrats were trying to do and really cared about. Not really sure what the answer is though. Try to play the same game? I wish the general population wasn't so stupid. If they weren't, this stuff wouldn't work.
Click to expand...
You are correct, Republicans made it a bigger deal than it is in practice, which is why I don't care about that issue - and to the credit of voters, it doesn't rank that high. 

But as a Midwest, moderate Democrat, when they lose me on those issues, they have a problem. It's how an election goes from a typical partsian loss to a blowout.

Ultimately, 90% of this is driven by inflation. But the margins matter when analyzing how they lost votes among nearly every demographic possible. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top