A lot of it has to do with their recruiting rankings each year. If you look back over the last 10-15 years, they've had mostly Top 20, a few Top 10, and even one #1 recruiting class. I think it's really easy (and safe) for the media and pollsters to predict good things for programs like that even if the play on the field doesn't necessarily warrant it. And that's because it's a prediction win-win; if the team sucks, they can just blame the coach aka "look at all the wasted talent." If the team does well, "look, we told you so."
