Penn State Game Preview

The home team always gets 3.
They won pretty nice last week, recomposed themselves after nutting all for a loss against IU.

UCLA isn’t good and we hung on, barely.
We have a backup, starting his second game in a tough road place. I’d think the line would be like 7.5 but not surprised it’s higher.
Our defense has some great stats but we don’t pitch shutouts or even hold “crappy” teams to under 20.5…we rank high in some categories but our defense doesn’t win games by themselves like the Suh yrs.

This game will come down to a fast start for us, no turnovers and limited bad penalties. Maybe even a good ST return of some kind or block kick or field position switch.

I am I feeling good about our prospects in this matchup, but it’s gonna take all we got. I just hope we don’t get out coached by their interim staff. We have an established staff, they have overall better players. They are down for sure and we have some momentum…if we get out coached and out schemed by them, I’ll be really disappointed.
To me, the way these two teams seasons’ have played out, this game comes down to coaching. We CANNOT get out coached. If their players are better, okay.

Let’s not forget, PSU was ranked in the top 3 to start the year, possible Natty…they fired their coach and lost their starting QB several weeks ago during this season. They lost some bad ugly games they were def projected to win against inferior opponents.
We need to stomp their throats and out-coach them.
If we win it will be like 27-21.
If we lose, it will be like 31-14.
 
BigRedBuster said:
Agree. The line doesn’t make sense. It’s like they are only thinking about the preseason opinions of the teams and not considering exactly how the season has gone.
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FPI implies on a neutral field PSU -5.2
SP+ implies on a neutral field PSU -4.4

10 doesn't seem too far out of line when adding in home field (PSU at night might get an extra bump) and we have a green QB making his 2nd career start.
 
I'm not going to be upset about losing this one because we weren't supposed to win it either way. Especially with Raiola out.

PSU -10 seems like it's maybe a point or two too far in their direction but either way. there's no question that we're at least a one touchdown underdog in this game.
 
Red Five said:
FPI implies on a neutral field PSU -5.2
SP+ implies on a neutral field PSU -4.4

10 doesn't seem too far out of line when adding in home field (PSU at night might get an extra bump) and we have a green QB making his 2nd career start.
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And, correct me if I'm wrong. But, PSUs QB started the year as a backup and is only going to be in his 6th start with a record of 1-4 with 4 TDs, 4 INTs and a 64% completion rate.
 
Undone said:
I'm not going to be upset about losing this one because we weren't supposed to win it either way. Especially with Raiola out.

PSU -10 seems like it's maybe a point or two too far in their direction but either way. there's no question that we're at least a one touchdown underdog in this game.
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I agree that I'm not surprised that we are an underdog. I'm just surprised at by how far.
 
BigRedBuster said:
I agree that I'm not surprised that we are an underdog. I'm just surprised at by how far.
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I think it's mainly just because Raiola is out.

Penn State seems like they picked themselves up off the mat the last couple weeks (even though the Indian game was a loss). So there's that.

They rank 53rd in team defense according to sports-reference - but they played pretty good defense against Indiana and then well against Michigan State.

Then oddly enough they rank 52nd in total offense.

In terms of results this season, we're a better team. But on paper just looking at their roster and physicality, they're really not a bad team.
 
I am I said:
I think we need to hit them in the f’ing mouth early so they realize they have squat to play for and we have a lot to play for, all things considered.
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I don't think this is true. They are likely a pretty motivated team playing for bowl eligibility. They beat us and all they have left is Rutgers to become bowl eligible. Guessing most of their roster will play very hard.
 
BigRedBuster said:
And, correct me if I'm wrong. But, PSUs QB started the year as a backup and is only going to be in his 6th start with a record of 1-4 with 4 TDs, 4 INTs and a 64% completion rate.
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Good point.

But power ratings imply a 5 point spread. Give PSU 3 or 4 points for home field/night game, and you get to a 8 or 9 point spread.
 
Hilltop said:
I don't think this is true. They are likely a pretty motivated team playing for bowl eligibility. They beat us and all they have left is Rutgers to become bowl eligible. Guessing most of their roster will play very hard.
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Ehhh.

They were preseason #2. Their coach got fired a month ago. They are currently 4-6. Guessing going to a bowl game at Yankee Stadium isn't all that motivating after being in the Rose, Peach, Fiesta, and Orange bowls the last 4 years.
 
SouthLincoln Husker said:
Will they have a home field advantage or has the fans gave up for the year? This is a game decided by turnovers with 2 young QBs.
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The crowd looked good on TV for the Indiana game but it's really hard to say from that. Light winds and decent temps for an evening game might bring out quite a few fans for them.
 
Red Five said:
Ehhh.

They were preseason #2. Their coach got fired a month ago. They are currently 4-6. Guessing going to a bowl game at Yankee Stadium isn't all that motivating after being in the Rose, Peach, Fiesta, and Orange bowls the last 4 years.
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Valid points. I guess we will see what teams shows up.
 
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