N is for nowledge

26 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

Really?

Fox News graphic shows 4376 ICU beds used.

 

Other graph shows the range of beds needed to be 3777 - 9277.  So, it's in range.

 

Fox News - beds needed 16,479

 

Other graph - beds needed range 14,947 - 37,756. So, it's in range.

 

What am I missing?

 

I think whomever created the first graph that you posted (the IMHE one) has an ulterior motive.

 

 

Systems are prepping for peak so yes 37k vs 16K is off substantially.  This is why governors are saying don’t have enough “x”.  Reserving beds, furloughing healthcare workers because they are looking at this model.  They have to prep for the peak, a peak that will never come

32 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

I'm not sure this graph shows anything to what you are trying to convince me of.

It does when you look at it in view Of the other picture from cuomo presser from the same day

again, the numbers projected vs actual are wildly different and well documented.  Graph or not.

13 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

So, the graph that you are basing your opinion on doesn't even know who exactly they are basing their data from?  FYI...It's IHME....not IMHE like is put several times on the graph.

So...again...who put the graph together and is publishing it?

So I’ll agree.  The graph seems put together by someone outside IHME.  However it does cite them as a reference as it does the covid research project.  Here are a couple others from the April 6th update or 3.0.  Was off the day they released it.  I get wanting to know where stuff comes from but the numbers are the numbers regardless of who put the graph together, yes or no.

1 minute ago, BigRedBuster said:

@N is for nowledge who is IMHE?

Institute for health metrics and evaluation, as part of University of Washington.  They are the major model the federal, and local governments have been using to prepare.  These are the referenced 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0 models I’ve referenced.

2 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

No, literally who put the graph together and published it?  Who tweeted it?

Why does that matter, the citation is in the friggin graph.  Again numbers are numbers.  I’m sorry they don’t say what you want them to say.

Just now, knapplc said:

 

Where should we have gotten better information from?

I’m saying is it rational to use Italy, and NYC as the starting data set to rollout as a model across the entire USA.  Is NYC kind of unique in someways.  Is NYC anything like Omaha, Lincoln, or Valantine NE for that matter.  
 

im saying it could have been used but was the main trigger presented to potus to close US through April.  It’s now been proven pretty overstated, through 2.0 and into 3.0.  Yet we are still using it to gauge or response on a federal and local level.  Should there not be a better way, a better analysis.

1 minute ago, BigRedBuster said:

So....you know more than just about every infectious disease expert in the world just be looking at a graph.

One numbers are numbers, you don’t need or have an md to review these and engage in critical thinking.  I’m sorry you feel that way but I don’t by into the god complex of someone we call dr.  
 

btw,  it every infectious disease doctor feels this way, but I like the groupthink idea.

2 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

What is the source of this graph?

Literally sourced at the bottom.  

4 minutes ago, knapplc said:

I'm late to this conversation. @N is for nowledge what is your basic premise here? That we've been doing the right things or the wrong things in response to this disease?

 

Essentially the model we have been using to model public policy is hot garbage.  Based on bad data set from the beginning, 1.0, 2.0, and yes 3.0 are not anywhere close to accurate.  The fear of this thing is worse than the reality, again, fatality rate of .4-.7%, and those are with several ore existing conditions.   Early on I think we made the right decision to social distance but the end of april signifies a time to ease restrictions.  Some have been arguing the model is accurate, I don’t know how, maybe 2+2=5.  And that outside of a vaccine stuck in our houses is where you will find us.  This started about football in august, some people said we’d still be in our houses sans a vaccine.  After April the cure is worse than the virus.

1 minute ago, BigRedBuster said:

Literally everyone is questioning this.  I'm not sure what you think you are arguing against.

 

 

The idea that a model that has been proven to be anything but accurate is leading our public policy response to this.  Ppl may be questioning it but the government continues to push out restrictions and institute health institutions to reduce outpatient and elective surgeries to prep for something that is obvupious won’t be coming.

3 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Ummmm....that's because more limitations have been put in place?  It's not a difficult concept here.

See my above point.  What changed from 2.0 to 3.0, nothing.  Why was 3.0 with nothing changed off substantially on the day it was released.  It continues to be incorrect as in not even close., and the variance is growing by the day.

21 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

You use the information you have and adjust as you go.

 

So...according to you, we shouldn't have had any social limitations put on us at all.

 

BTW...1,600+ dead today and we have 4 more hours to go.  By far the deadliest day yet.

 

So...since you're the infectious disease expert, how high are these going to go?  We already had one supposedly expert tell us that we only have 15 cases in the country and it's going to go to zero soon.  That was oh....about 12,400+ deaths ago....over 3-4 weeks.

 

I didn’t say any social limitations, in fact I’ve said the exact opposite citing my own families behavior.  I’ve questioned for how long this is necessary.  Recall the initial goal.  To flatten the curve, don’t overburden the health care system.  Well we are furloughing health care staff across the country, hospitals are empty based on a model that continues to dissolve in accuracy if it ever had any.  This SD was never to eradicate the virus or stop all new cases.  People will get this virus for quite some time be treated and hopefully recover.  The idea that you are going to shut down/SD with each and every new case was....1) not initial goal. 2) completely unrealistic for a virus with a fatality rate of .4-.7%.
 

death always lags based on Fauci and birx.  Any death is horrible.  This is not an either or.  
 

I don’t need an MD to look at numbers and see any model that has accuracy of 30-40% shouldn’t be followed like the Bible to make large public policy decisions.

Yes dr fauci was on tv many times saying covid wasn’t going to be an issue here.  Saying it wasn’t widespread.  As late as late January.  That’s the expert you were talking about right.

1 hour ago, BigRedBuster said:

Yep, it was.  That doesn't change anything as to the validity of the projection.  Nothing was known as to how extensive the social distancing would be and how well the American public would adhere to it.

 

Still, nothing you have posted proves what you are trying to state.

Just what I thought it wasn’t that the elite “experts” could have possibly been wrong, it’s because social distancing had such a dramatic affect.  Let’s say I agree with that, which I don’t, why the significant discrepancy from 2.0 to 3.0.  Why is 3.0 also off significantly just 2 days into the 3.0 model.  2.0 to 3.0 social distancing didn’t change at all....and absolutely zero has changed to skew the “model”  over the last 

on another note, is using model that even an “accurate” one based on your observations, is only 30-40% accurate projected vs actual.   Should we really be leaning on it to make major decisions or policy.  Like um closing the country. 

1 minute ago, junior4949 said:

 

What does the bolded even mean?  We're talking about workers deemed essential.  They aren't under restrictions.  Even if all restrictions are lifted on everyone else, the truckers want masks and gear.  The beef and pork sectors are in the tank because of lack of processing ability.  Packing plant workers aren't under stay at home restrictions.  As long as the virus is around and people are getting sick, none of this is going to change regardless of whether we open everything back up or not.  Without a vaccine, it matters little if everything opens up.  People will still be scared of catching the virus, thus staying closer to home and avoiding crowds. 

If people are scared of this disease than they’ve literally talked themselves into a hysteria that shouldn’t exist and should start looking at additional sources for information.  It is still believed that the fatality is somewhere between .4-.7% with the majority of those being in people with advanced age or several comorbidities.  
 

ppe is coming and people should get.  My point is it’s all a ripple affect.  People don’t work in a bubble and more pay might be available if demand was larger.  It’s not just about truck drivers or health care workers, that contrary to the narrative, are being layed off and furloughed in waves.

6 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

Again.  2.0 isn’t valid anymore we are on 3.0 which cdc director already said is inflated.  No, 2.0 and 3.0 nothing has changed except for actual data being used instead of using NYC and Italy across the entire nation.  Social distancing was already accounted for in 2.0 and same measures in 3.0.  Only change is actuals from domestic results.  3.0 just updated on Sunday is already off significantly, see attached chart I posted just before this.  This is GOOD news and don’t understand the dunking saying otherwise.  I’m still not sure how anyone defends the models as “accurate” when they’re anything but.  Even Fauci and birx have backed away saying they’re only as good as the “assumptions” made.  Is this kind of like a magic 8 ball?

Yep totally legit.  Nothing to see here, just accurate “models” proven inaccurate by the day and by the hour.  Btw, all the models built in social distancing measures taken since early to mid March.

29 minutes ago, junior4949 said:

 

I have a feeling as time goes by that we're going to find out just how essential the bolded really is.  I'm sure not everyone is familiar with what is going on, but we may very well be on the brink of breaking the chain.  There is a proposed trucker strike on May 1 if long haul truckers are not equipped with medical gear and masks.  Considering those in the medical field are facing shortages, there's little reason to think truckers will be getting them by May 1.  JBS which is a Brazilian company has made coming into work at their Greeley, CO and Grand Island, NE packing plants optional after a few workers tested positive.  The beef market has tanked.  One local 100+ thousand head feedlot has suspended purchasing replacement cattle after shipping fat cattle.  They are now less than half capacity.  They are not the only feedlots to do so.  Currently, feeder pigs are worth less than the cost of shipping them from the farrowing barns to the finishing barns.  It has now become more economical to euthanize them and abort pregnant sows than to place them in finishing barns.  The dairy industry is dumping large quantities of milk on the ground due to lack of storage and transport. 

 

Long story short, the people making food are shutting down.  The trucking industry is threatening to shut down.  Yet, here we are discussing whether we'll get to watch Husker football this fall.   

Even more reason to put a stop to this sooner rather than later.  While this is a football thread my point is it’s more than football.  If you’d cant/won’t have football, you can say goodbye to many other things that are way more important if not essential.

5 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

This is a new virus nobody had ever seen before.  The original projections are based on what people know about viruses that seem to act the same as what the experts are seeing.  Interestingly, those original projections, aren't off that far assuming nothing had changed.  The fact that things HAVE changed that has affected the outcome, doesn't make the original projections garbage. 

Original projections...1.5-2.5 million deaths.  
projection 2.0...100k-240k deaths, off after first week in NYC by 50k hospitalizations.  Used NYC as major input for the whole model.

Projection 3.0.  ~ 80k deaths, cdc director admitted next day those were likely off significantly.  NYC, the major input for the model, on the day of the update was ~15-20k hospitalizations off.

projection 2.0 didn’t assume anything we haven’t been doing since mid March and should have been included.  Nothing has changed since 2.0 to 3.0 yet deaths have been adjusted from 240k to 80k with the admission those are also likely high.  This models are the exact opposite of “ACCURATE” or as you said...”not that far off”.

4 minutes ago, junior4949 said:

 

To me, the real question is will more people lose their life to the virus or to suicide?  There's already been a spike in suicides, domestic violence, and child abuse.  When this all shakes out, will more lives be lost to those three things or the virus?

Not to mention things that are being missed from “elective surgeries” and non emergent medical visits being put off.  How many cancers are we missing, cardiac issues.  The ripple effect of this shutdown will be interesting to review in hindsight.

3 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

OK...are you taking the original question to ask "SHOULD we have a season next year?"  That seems to be what you are indicating.  The original question was for the chances of us having one.  Those are two very different questions.

 

"SHOULD" we have a season will be determined as time goes on over the next 4-5 months.  I haven't seen anyone dispute that or indicate we should make that determination right now.

 

This is all a very bad situation financially for a lot of people.  Nobody is disputing that.  We need to be opened back up as soon as possible.  That "as soon as possible" will be determined by how serious people take this problem NOW so the virus gets controlled and we can move on with our lives.  If people don't take it seriously, it will drag on longer.

 

 

I’m saying it’s part of the same question.  Lives will continue to be lost to “rona” throughout the year at least.  Lives will continue to be lost for all different kinds of diseases, viruses, and infections.  That doesn’t mean everything stops.  It’s unfortunate yes but the question needing to be answered isn’t black and white and shouldn’t be.  Lots of variables need to be considered.  

2 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

The difference between you and me is that you seem to have the feeling that a projection that isn't almost dead nuts on the first time, must be garbage.  I tend to understand that projections are adjusted over time with what is happening on the ground.  When the original projections are made, nobody knew what measures would take place and how Americans would react to them or adhere to them.

 

It's like projecting now that the Huskers are going to win 8 games next year, then in fall camp, top two QBs, starting RB and two starting WRs go down with injury.  So, it's adjusted to project 5 wins next year.   That doesn't mean the original projection was garbage.

I understand that, projections can be off.  My point was it wouldn’t be some off if we knew a good amount about this virus when it was made.  The model even given the latest update with actual share still off significantly.  When you use models to make decisions and they’re this off you can see the problem with that.

look at it this way.  I expect experts to be just that.  If I wanted an estimate on a roof, the expert looked at it, and provided a detailed “projection”.  If the projection was 69k and they actually came in +/- 5-10k, OK.  If they come in +/- 50k is that not a problem.  Do you begin questioning the expert or at minimum the “modeling” they are using to provide projections.  They weren’t just off they were WAY off.

4 minutes ago, junior4949 said:

I've read and I'm of the opinion that several small businesses won't make it.  It doesn't matter if there is a season or not, quite a few of them aren't going to make it.  Nearly a quarter of the nation's ethanol plants have closed.  Some of them won't open even when this passes.  Nebraska is highly dependent upon agriculture.  There are several involved in agriculture that aren't going to make it. 

 

I don't necessarily disagree with what you're saying especially about the cure not being worse than the disease.  I'm simply stating that the direction we're going and the path we're taking leads us right smack into a depression and quite possibly a long and deep depression.  In the last month, I've been reading quite a bit more than normal.  At first, almost all experts agreed that this virus started from the "wet" market in Wuhan.  People claiming it came from their biolab were labelled tin foil hat conspiracy theorists.  Now, more and more experts are saying that it came from the biolab because the bats carrying this virus are not native to Wuhan and are found roughly 900 km away.  China has already sent test kits to Spain that only had a 30% accuracy.  Now, they are sending defunct medical supplies to England.  There are getting to be more and more articles by the day stating how China needs to answer for all of the lies and such.  Right now, I'm a lot more concerned about WW3 than I am about whether there's a college football season or not. 

See I see it a little differently.  The longer this self destruction of our economy lasts, yes the more likely it is we don’t come back from it (depression).  If we start to reduce/ease restrictions in early/mid may it may be a slow crawl back which sports seasons can certainly ease that stress come fall.  
 

as for China, very clear they need to be held somewhat accountable.  I see it more as us putting the screws to them for trade deal, bringing back manufacturing for all essential supplies (ppe, med equipment, drugs, etc...) with other countries doing the same.  The pressure just that mounts on China will be immense.

4 minutes ago, junior4949 said:

We're living history here.  I tell my kids almost daily that these are the days they will never forget for the rest of their lives.  It's telling when my 81 year old father-in-law calls asking what I think is about to happen.  99+ percent of the general population hasn't lived this before.  I have no idea whether the season will be played this year or not.  I voted no games played.  However, I don't think this is the most important question.  The most important question is what will be the new normal once this passes?  We have no idea what the paradigm shift will be if any.  Maybe, sports just won't be that important to people.  Economists are already talking about 30-50 million people being unemployed before we get through this.  I've read about how much cleaner the air is around cities around the World because people are staying home and are not driving.  Maybe, people just won't be that interested in going to games in the future?  Maybe, they simply won't have the money?  With the Spanish Flu, it came in waves.  It's already being speculated we'll see this again potentially this fall.   

 

It is quite possible I'm reading too much into this historic event.  It is also quite possible that I'm just pi$$ed about mankind right now because it is more than a little disturbing living out here near the Colorado border watching people who are under a state stay at home order flock our lakes and our stores potentially dragging the virus here with them.  One local grocery store had to close because the Denver residents came and wiped the store out of inventory.  I just think we are way too early into this to even begin to assume there will be a football season in 2020.    

Because it’s not just about sports.  Jobs and businesses are directly associated with sporting events, concerts, etc....many hotels and restaurants are small business owners.  A place like downtown Lincoln, among many others, simply won’t make it without a season.  That’s not just about downtown Lincoln but the people that have jobs down there, gone, all across the nation.  “Cure“ can’t be worse than the disease.

11 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

What's the point of posting that and how does that prove your point?

 

I laughed because the original models were without social distancing which indicated 1.5-2 million deaths.  You then basically point that out in your post and use it to try to argue against what I said.

FYI....there are some who now believe the death toll in Wuhan is 40,000+  If you extrapolate that out to the US population, that comes out to roughly 1.18 million.    That 40,000+ in Wuhan still was affectively lowered by social distancing that was eventually put in place.

 

Nothing you have posted indicates that the models are garbage like you seem to think.

Umm.  They’ve already adjusted anticipated deaths from 100k-250k down to roughly 80k and cdc director dr Hahn stated yesterday those are likely high.  
 

can we agree the model they used for nationwide modeling was the IHME.  Dr birx stated they used NYC and Italy as the data set assuming the current social distancing measures, which by that time was mostly well in place.  April 5th update on NYC....projected hospitalizations were off 54k, icu admits off 8k.  NYC was the major data input for the entire model and was off by 54k hospitalizations?  Do you not see the issue with this?  On April 6th they updated the model and were still off almost 15k hospitalizations and 3-4K icu admits, on the day they released it.  How are the models, if they lack any accuracy at all not garbage.

again, my point is this was more serious than I gave it credit for in the short term but to expect this disruption to be in place 4-5 months from now, based on what we know now, is irresponsible at a minimum.  At some point the “cure” becomes worse than the disease and we are quickly approaching that time.

3 minutes ago, Atbone95 said:

Woah much info very informed. What a great discussion on Nebraska football 

Well the overall point was this isn’t freaking Ebola or the plague as much as people have bought into the idea it is.  Making declarations that will ruin people’s livelihoods on events taking place 4-5 months from now.  The information is out there if ppl can read and think for themselves instead of being told what to think.

again, I think early mitigation was needed but ongoing will need to have a different plan.  Drs birx and Fauci have said this exact same thing.

14 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Interesting take on “facts”.  
 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=14&ved=2ahUKEwiah5eFyNboAhUIQ60KHTDyBHQQFjANegQIBRAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.statista.com%2Fchart%2F21305%2Fprojected-coronavirus-deaths-compared-to-historical-events%2F&usg=AOvVaw15Xri9XMgnB878pPttQcJW