JTrain
-
Posts
3,814 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
13
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Articles
Media Demo
Posts posted by JTrain
-
-
No one knows for sure, of course, but based on the schedules of the current top 10 teams, the chances of a one loss Big 10 team landing in the fourth spot are very slim-- probably less than 5%.
-
So how could this NOT be affected by bias? I'm kinda having this discussion in two threads right now but computer ranking systems are programmed by people based on what THEY think is relevant. Not trying to be argumentative here I just disagree that computer rankings are unbiased when they are made by biased individuals....
By unbiased, they mean that the computer does not know which team is which. Nebraska might as well be "Team 74" and Indiana "Team 91". No one's opinion on any team, conference, coach, player, tradition, etc. nor any outside info such as other polls play any part. The formula is set in stone prior to the season and the results are simply input and the ratings output. Of course what each system values (margin of victory, offense, defense, strength of schedule, etc) differs from system to system.
Here is some good further info from one major system: http://www.masseyratings.com/faq.php
To answer your question about the early rankings: Many computer rankings do not publish until late September or early October when they have sufficiently connected data. For those that have earlier releases, they may use data from the previous season at first, but gradually filter it out until they are based purely on this year's results (usually by mid-October).
-
Okay, so we are already ranked #19 and need to beat a Top 10 team and have multiple other teams need to lose for us to sniff the Top 15.
No, that's not what I said. With a win we are in the top 15-- not sniffing. With a little help we are at 11. That's comparable to where MSU landed after their big win.
-
Here's the problem, guys -- IF we go to East Lansing and beat MSU on Saturday, we just killed the only piece of glimmer the B1G has. MSU falls to 3-2, beat by inferior Nebraska. MSU's early close game with Oregon gets dismissed as a sluggish start by Oregon, and the B1G has no legitimacy left at all. (Even with a hypothetical then 6-0 Nebraska) They'll just drop Michigan State all the way down to #20+ or out of the polls completely and move us up the 1 spot vacated by them, #18. If anyone above us loses we could slide up those as well, but I just don't see ESPN saying, "Oh, Nebraska is the new Michigan State. They're now the ones on the outside of the playoffs looking in."
That all said - this is 100% on us. It's not the pollsters fault we've lost 4 games every year in recent history. As it's been said over and over again - JUST WIN. Historically speaking, even if 2014 Nebraska beats both Michigan State and Wisconsin, it will piss itself against Iowa or Rutgers.
1) If the Big 10 is hanging its hat on an "early close game with Oregon", i.e. a 19-point loss, then they're in bad shape to begin with.
2) I will gladly bet my life saving's on Nebraska moving up higher than #18 in the AP with a win. As I said above, a win should put us at 15 and an impressive win gets us as high as 11.
3) ESPN does not decide the AP poll or the Selection Committee poll.
-
Kind of a crime, really. A 6-0 Nebraska team that just beat Michigan State ought to be in the Top 10. Heck, we should be in the Top 15 currently. Miami's not the greatest, but they're not chopped liver either, and we completely demolished them -- the way a *good* Top 15 team does to Top 40 teams.
Completely demolished? I don't think many people would stretch the verb that far.
-
With a win against MSU, we would pass:
MSU
USC
Wisconsin
Stanford/ND loser
Miss St. with loss
Ole Miss with loss
LSU with loss
With an impressive win (>14 points or so), we would also pass:
TAMU with loss
Auburn with loss
Georgia
That's at least four spots and up to eight spots (or more if UCLA and/or BYU get upset). So we should be in the 11-15 range with a win.
-
Human polls are fraught with bias and fuzzy logic-- no denying that. Bias is what human beings do best. But I don't see any particular SEC bias being manifested in the current AP poll to any large degree. If you look at the unbiased systems (systems that do not give any input/weight to conference, "prestige", tradition, etc., only results: http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm), there are five SEC teams in the top 10. Georgia is the only SEC team that is, in comparison, notably overrated in the AP (13th vs. 18th). Most of the top 25 SEC teams are actually lower in the AP than in the computers.
The most overrated teams in the AP (vs. unbiased) are Wisconsin (Big 10, 17th vs. 24th), Ohio St. (Big 10, 20th vs. 27th) and East Carolina (American, 22nd vs. 29th), all seven spots higher in the AP poll.
FWIW - TCU and Nebraska are currently the most underrated. Nebraska is 12th in the computers.
Where do the computer rankings come from? How do they figure so many SEC teams are top 10 when nobody's really played much of anybody yet?
I'm not sure specifically what you're asking. They use the scores of the 300 or so FBS games played so far. Some computer rankings don't publish until October when they have a more sufficient set of data to connect all teams. There are a solid 50 or so publishing now. Obviously the more games we get, the better connected teams become and the better these systems can assess where they stand in relation.
-
Ameer #3 by writer Barrett Sallee:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2213057-heisman-watch-2014-top-5-rankings-for-week-5
#4 in ESPN Experts Poll:
http://espn.go.com/college-football/heisman14/
#2 by Bruce Feldman:
-
Human polls are fraught with bias and fuzzy logic-- no denying that. Bias is what human beings do best. But I don't see any particular SEC bias being manifested in the current AP poll to any large degree. If you look at the unbiased systems (systems that do not give any input/weight to conference, "prestige", tradition, etc., only results: http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm), there are five SEC teams in the top 10. Georgia is the only SEC team that is, in comparison, notably overrated in the AP (13th vs. 18th). Most of the top 25 SEC teams are actually lower in the AP than in the computers.
The most overrated teams in the AP (vs. unbiased) are Wisconsin (Big 10, 17th vs. 24th), Ohio St. (Big 10, 20th vs. 27th) and East Carolina (American, 22nd vs. 29th), all seven spots higher in the AP poll.
FWIW - TCU and Nebraska are currently the most underrated. Nebraska is 12th in the computers.
-
1
-
-
The SEC is the #1 ranked conference by every major objective rating system:
http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm (bottom)
SEC West went 25-0 in non-conference.
-
Wearing pink to support breast cancer = slacktivism.
You want to help? go mow a lawn for someone with cancer, take an afternoon off to run someone to a doctor's appointment, watch the kids, buy a tank of gas, whatever.
Wearing a ribbon or "Liking" something on Facebook doesn't really help anybody, and "raising awareness" isn't doing anything concrete, it's just an attempt to pass the buck on to someone who will actually do something.
Is this post raising awareness about the inefficiency/pointlessness of raising awareness?
-
1
-
-
Hmm.
Red looks scarlet-y and pops well on the right. Not so much on the left. Looked even darker on TV. Numbers look black on the right, gray/silver on the left.
Not that the design was great to begin with, but at least the colors looked nice in the promo pics.
-
Head over to a rerun of COPS to see Miami do their version of the tunnel walk. Most folks call it the Perp Walk.
-
Bo was heard on the ref's live mic arguing that the roughing the passer was after the interception, not that the roughing penalty was a bad call (most of us agree it was a bad call). One of Pereira's main points was that Bo's argument about the timing of the roughing didn't make any sense. Roughing the passer is considered part of the offense's possession and negates any interceptions regardless of the timing. Bo did not understand the rule and apparently (via zoogies) Bo said he "saw a game recently where a similar thing happened". I think all head coaches and coordinators should read and have a good understanding of the rules rather than basing their understanding on live TV examples.
I have no problem with Bo getting heated at the refs for poor calls, but it's not a good look when he is raging over a misunderstanding of the rules. I believe a similar situation occurred earlier this season when he was angry about the refs running out the clock when we spiked it with 0:02 remaining in the half, despite the fact that the new rule clearly states there must be three seconds at the end of the previous play in order to spike the ball and stop the clock.
-
1
-
-
I think it would be cool if it showed the Blackshirts parachuting in from a plane.
-
-
-
Will Martinez run it at Nebraska?
-
-
Will Martinez run it at Nebraska?
-
60 points?
-
When you request away game tickets at this point, what are the odds of actually getting them?
-
Will the Wifi be naturally strong?
-
They're all great guys and HUSKERS and trying they're best. Support them all or GTFO! All 150 guys on the Rushmore! It will span to Kearney. (Or down to Kansas City and use it as a recruiting tool.) Love it.
#19 in AP poll
in Husker Football
Posted
People only seem to realize the many problems with the human poll system when their team is being hurt/underrated by it. Nebraska benefited from the system for 30 years, being perennial preseason top ten members.
Now, Texas A&M (before today
) still had a good case to be ahead of us, which they are in the unbiased systems (http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm). Especially the systems that consider MOV. Nebraska's best win was over #40 (using the rankings listed) by 10 points, while TAMU beat #27 South Carolina by 24 points and also beat #25 Arkansas. Nebraska's next best win was over #72 Illinois.
So yes, the human systems are crap, but in this particular instance I don't have much of an issue (even if they only happen to be right like the broken clock analogy).
The important part is, with a win tonight Nebraska will be ahead of Texas A&M in every system. And more importantly, if Nebraska somehow manages to go 13-0, they'll finish in the top four, regardless of the stupidity of the polls (which of course will carry over to the almighty "Selection Committee" to some degree).