Saunders

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Big Ten football betting preview: The Athletic’s insiders pick conference and division winners, over/unders and more

Editor’s note: The Athletic asked 20 of its college football writers and editors to make their picks for the upcoming season. The results of those surveys will be published via six conference betting previews: ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC and Group of 5.

Ohio State (-225) enters the season as the overwhelming favorite to win the Big Ten championship, something the Buckeyes have done in each of the previous four seasons. Wisconsin (+650) has the second-best odds to claim the league title. No team from the Big Ten West has won the conference since the league adopted its East-West format in 2014. Penn State (+800), the last school not named Ohio State to win the Big Ten back in 2016, has the third-best odds followed by Iowa (+900). The Hawkeyes finished last season riding a six-game win streak, the longest active streak in the Big Ten. Indiana, who surprised many with a 6-2 record last season, was the feel-good story of the Big Ten in 2020. The Hoosiers (+2000) enter this season tied with Michigan for the fifth-best odds to win the league title. Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh and his revamped coaching staff are seeking the program’s first outright conference championship since 2003. Indiana hasn’t won the Big Ten outright since 1945.

https://theathletic.com/2767263/2021/08/17/big-ten-football-betting-preview-the-athletics-insiders-pick-conference-and-division-winners-over-unders-and-more/?source=twittered

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Odds to win the Big Ten West Division

Wisconsin (-115)

Iowa (+185)

Minnesota (10-1)

Nebraska (11-1)

Northwestern (16-1)

Purdue (30-1)

Illinois (50-1)

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Team over/unders

Nebraska under 6 wins (+110), Maryland under 5.5 wins (+120) and Purdue under 5 wins (+110) emerged as the best value plays among the Big Ten team win totals.

(Note: The number of votes are listed next to each result. Click on a team name for our “State of the Program” season previews.)

 

Wisconsin over/under 9.5 wins

Over (-125):  13
Under (+105):  7

 

Iowa over/under 8.5 wins

Over (-105):  11
Under (-115):  9

 

Nebraska over/under 6 wins

Over (-130):  6
Under (+110):  14

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The process for my annual preview series is pretty straightforward: set some early projections in February (check), embark on a conference-by-conference preview series (check), then update the projections in August to account for roster movement. With the preview series officially in the books, it's time for step three.

SP+ is my opponent- and tempo-adjusted look at the most sustainable and predictive aspects of college football. It is intended to be predictive and forward-facing; it is a power ranking, not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or brave scheduling.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/32000492/college-football-2021-updated-preseason-sp+-rankings

 

Some rankings of note:

#3 Oklahoma

#4 Ohio State

#6 Wisconsin

#16 Iowa

#17 Michigan

#24 Minnesota

#32 Nebraska

#51 Michigan State

#52 Purdue

#76 Northwestern

#81 Illinois

#88 Buffalo

17 minutes ago, floridacorn said:

 

True, but Gainsville & the surrounding area is definitely deep south

Florida is the only state that the further north you travel, the further south you get.

15 hours ago, J-MAGIC said:

Maybe I'm in the minority here but I think we would have handily beat Illinois last year if AM is starting. Receivers were running wide open downfield all day and McCaffrey was incapable of getting them the ball. Eventually Illinois figured that out and sat on everything short. AM came in and we went right down the field and scored. Defense didn't look good either but it was on the field a ton because of the turnovers. If we show up I'm not super worried about that game (though they are certainly capable of beating us if we play poorly as last year showed).

That's probably one of the worst performances at QB I can remember for Nebraska. 

1 hour ago, Fru said:

 

It's funny to me how NW is picked to finish 3rd in the West in the Unofficial B1G Media Days poll, which would probably need to be in the neighborhood of an 8-4 season. And in this preview, they're picked to win 5 games. NW loses a ton on defense, has to replace a D Coordinator, has to replace a QB, and his 126th out of 127 in returning production. Not sure how the B1G Media rationalizes that into a 3rd place West finish. 

I think it's just the reverse of underrating them. They wont because of a team full of old guys, and a great defense. They don't have that this year. And I think it's going to show.

7 minutes ago, captain_sasquatch said:

The Illinois game will be super telling. We desperately need to win it. 

Yup. I was shocked to see the Win Expectancy so high for that, and the Northwestern games.

By far one of my favorite previews out there, but it's locked behind ESPN+. It's very in depth, so I grabbed the high level info for this thread.

On 7/20/2021 at 8:11 AM, seaofred92 said:

 

Thread on this preview is here: 

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Big Ten West college football offseason preview: A nod to Wisconsin
Wisconsin plays Wisconsin football. Iowa is Iowa. Northwestern does Northwestern things. Minnesota is increasingly Minnesota. The Big Ten West might have more proven entities than any other division in college football. But for such a reliable division, the West has been pretty difficult to forecast of late.

In 2018, defending champion Wisconsin was voted a runaway favorite to repeat, with only Iowa likely to offer major resistance. Northwestern won the division by three games. In 2019, turnover prompted a shakeup, and with Scott Frost seemingly ready for a UCF-like second-year leap, Nebraska was voted a slight favorite over Iowa. Wisconsin and Minnesota tied for the title. In 2020, Wisconsin and Minnesota were picked to once again lead the way. Instead, Northwestern beat out Iowa by a half-game.

We'll see who ends up the media favorite soon enough. My guess is that, with most of last year's starters returning -- and with both Iowa and especially Northwestern losing quite a few key contributors -- Wisconsin will again get the nod. SP+ projects the Badgers and Iowa as the most likely teams to make a run.

Congrats in advance, then, to Purdue for winning the division. Let's preview the Big Ten West!

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/31828178/big-ten-west-college-football-offseason-preview-nod-wisconsin

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Nebraska

In 2020, Nebraska looked good for a while against Ohio State, beat Penn State ... and got blown out by Illinois. It's been "two steps forward, two back" for Scott Frost's entire tenure.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 30th

Average projected wins: 7.0 (4.9 in the Big Ten)

Likely wins: Fordham (99%), Buffalo (86%), Northwestern (85%), at Illinois (79%), Purdue (67%)

Relative toss-ups: at Michigan State (65%), Michigan (53%), at Minnesota (45%), Iowa (43%)

Likely losses: Ohio State (31%), at Wisconsin (26%), at Oklahoma (17%)

The Huskers are projected favorites in six of their first seven games ... and one of their last five. Recommendation: Start quickly.

 

What we learned about Nebraska in 2020

There might be hope for the defense. NU jumped from 63rd to 38th in defensive SP+ thanks to the combination of disruptive run defense and strong red zone execution. There were still weaknesses -- a nonexistent pass rush and the resulting inefficient pass defense -- but it was a start.

Nine starters return, but linebacker Will Honas, NU's best pass-rusher, is potentially lost for the season (knee). End Ben Stille and LB JoJo Domann are solid run defenders, while safeties Marquel Dismuke and Deontai Williams and corner Cam Taylor-Britt give the secondary potential. But until the pass rush improves, cracking the top 30 will be difficult.

 

What we didn't learn about Nebraska in 2020

Will it ever click for Adrian Martinez? In two years under Frost at UCF, McKenzie Milton went from solid true freshman starter to one of the best players in the country. That set an unfair bar for Martinez, who became the day-one starter when Frost arrived in Lincoln. He hasn't cleared it.

Martinez has battled injuries and inconsistency -- in 20 games in 2019-20, his passer rating was above 140 10 times and below 105 seven times -- and with the departure of leading rusher Dedrick Mills and leading receiver Wan'Dale Robinson, he'll again deal with uncertainty in the skill corps. There's efficiency potential with receivers Zavier Betts and Levi Falck, tight ends Austin Allen and Travis Vokolek and USC RB transfer Markese Stepp, but big plays were minimal last year. A few chunk plays and easy scores would work wonders for a team that has lost six of its past eight one-score games.

Will it ever click for Frost?After what he had done at UCF, Frost, the former NU quarterback, coming home to turn the program around felt like one of the most no-brainer hires of the past decade. Three years in, he's got a 0.375 win percentage. As long as you're still employed, you can still turn things around, but Frost probably shouldn't wait much longer.

Nebraska's history in one chart

 

1. When Bob Devaney arrived in 1962, NU had enjoyed one winning season in its past nine years. In 11 seasons he would win two national titles with seven top-10 finishes.

2. After going 12-8 in 1967-68, Devaney promoted Tom Osborne to offensive coordinator to spruce things up. They went 42-4-2 with two national titles over the next four years.

3. Osborne was the obvious choice when Devaney retired in 1972. He would engineer 14 top-10 finishes in his first 21 seasons but constantly fell short of a national title ...

4. ... until 1994. His Huskers broke through to win the title that year, won a second with one of the best teams ever in 1995, then won a third in 1997, his final season.

5. Osborne successor Frank Solich enjoyed three top-10 finishes in six years, but he was fired. NU has zero top-10s since and hasn't finished ranked at all since 2012.

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Illinois
In 2016, Lovie Smith's first year in charge, Illinois ranked 94th in SP+. In 2020, his last, the Fighting Illini ranked 89th. They were starting over then, and they're starting over now.

Projected SP+ rank: 83rd

Average projected wins: 3.9 (2.2 in the Big Ten)

Likely wins*: Charlotte (81% win probability)

Relative toss-ups: Rutgers (65%), UTSA (60%), Northwestern (53%)

Likely losses: at Virginia (28%), Maryland (24%), at Purdue (21%), Nebraska (21%), at Minnesota (14%), Wisconsin (10%), at Iowa (8%), at Penn State (7%)

 

Northwestern
Much of FBS returns record levels of production; Northwestern does not. If Pat Fitzgerald's Wildcats challenge for another West title, it'll be his most impressive coaching performance yet.

Projected SP+ rank: 75th

Average projected wins: 4.9 (2.7 in the Big Ten)

Likely wins: Indiana State (94% win probability), Rutgers (68%)

Relative toss-ups: Ohio (65%), at Duke (63%), at Illinois (48%), Michigan State (43%)

Likely losses: Purdue (33%), Minnesota (24%), at Nebraska (16%), Iowa (15%), at Michigan (14%), at Wisconsin (7%)

 

Purdue

Since famously destroying Ohio State in 2018, Jeff Brohm's Boilermakers are just 8-16. They are constantly competitive but are no closer to turning a corner than they were three years ago.

Projected SP+ rank: 40th

Average projected wins: 5.8 (3.9 in the Big Ten)

Likely wins: at UConn (95% win probability), Illinois (79%), at Northwestern (67%), Oregon State (66%)

Relative toss-ups: Michigan State (65%), Minnesota (45%), Indiana (43%)

Likely losses: at Nebraska (33%), at Notre Dame (31%), at Iowa (22%), at Wisconsin (18%), at Ohio State (14%)

Minnesota

PJ Fleck's Golden Gophers were two scores from 5-2 and two from 1-6 last season. They aren't far from West contention, but only if the defense rediscovers consistency.

Projected SP+ rank: 31st

Average projected wins: 7.3 (4.7 in the Big Ten)

Likely wins: BGSU (98% win probability), Miami (Ohio) (96%), Illinois (86%), at Northwestern (76%)

Relative toss-ups: at Colorado (62%), Maryland (59%), at Purdue (55%), Nebraska (55%), at Indiana (42%), Wisconsin (36%)

Likely losses: at Iowa (31%), Ohio State (30%)
 

Iowa

After an 0-2 start, Iowa won its last six games and jumped to 10th in SP+, its best ranking since 2008. Should we be talking more about the Hawkeyes as legit Big Ten contenders?

Projected SP+ rank: 16th

Average projected wins: 8.3 (6.0 in the Big Ten)

Likely wins: Kent State (98%), Colorado State (96%), Illinois (92%), at Northwestern (86%), Purdue (78%), Minnesota (69%), Indiana (67%)

Relative toss-ups: at Maryland (61%), at Nebraska (57%), Penn State (54%), at Wisconsin (38%), at Iowa State (37%)

Likely losses: none

Wisconsin

New quarterback ... injuries ... more COVID problems than most ... we might have learned less about Wisconsin than any other FBS team in 2020. At least, the Badgers hope so.

Projected SP+ rank: 9th

Average projected wins: 9.4 (6.8 in the Big Ten)

Likely wins: Eastern Michigan (98% win probability), at Rutgers (94%), Northwestern (93%), Army (93%), at Illinois (90%), at Purdue (74%), Michigan (71%), vs. Notre Dame (67%)

Relative toss-ups: at Minnesota (64%), Iowa (62%), Penn State (60%)

Likely losses: none

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Ohio State football voted unanimous 2021 Big Ten favorite in cleveland.com preseason poll
Ohio State football begins the season with a first-time quarterback, an unsettled running back situation, and new starters at over half of its defensive positions. Those unknowns do not lower the Buckeyes’ expectations within the Big Ten Conference. Ohio State is the unanimous preseason favorite in the 2021 cleveland.com Preseason Big Ten Poll. All 34 members of our voting panel picked the Buckeyes — the four-time defending champions — to win the Big Ten East and the championship game. The voters picked Wisconsin as the West favorite with 29 first-place votes. Second-place Iowa received the other five first-place votes. Cleveland.com picked up the responsibility for organizing the poll for posterity when the Big Ten dropped it 11 years ago. The panel included at least one beat writer from all 14 Big Ten teams and a few who cover the entire league or have a national perspective.

https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2021/07/ohio-state-football-voted-unanimous-2021-big-ten-favorite-in-clevelandcom-preseason-poll.html

 

BIG TEN WEST

1. Wisconsin (29 first-place votes) 233 points

2. Iowa (5) 202

3. Northwestern 160

4. Minnesota 146

5. Nebraska 91.5

6. Purdue 72.5

7. Illinois 47

BIG TEN EAST

1. Ohio State (34 first-place votes) 238

2. Penn State 192

3. Indiana 169

4. Michigan 144

5. Maryland 79

6. Rutgers 77.5

7. Michigan State 52.5

BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Ohio State over Wisconsin (29)

Ohio State over Iowa (5)

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247Sports projects Big Ten order of finish, champion, player of year
Storylines are aplenty across the conference, especially as we test whether the pandemic-shortened 2020 season was just a fluke for several teams.

Is Penn State in position for a huge rebound this fall?

Was Minnesota's subpar showing in 2020 a sign of things to come?

Has Indiana done enough on the recruiting trail to become a legitimate threat after nearly knocking off Ohio State last season?

Will Nebraska get off the mat?

We try to answers those questions (and more) in 247Sports' preseason projections. Below you will see how our 18 reporters voted for conference champion and other superlatives such as player, coach and game of the year.

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/Big-Ten-2021-football-projected-order-of-finish-championship-prediction-player-of-the-year-game-of-the-year-167765934/#167765934_1

 

BIG TEN PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

East Division

1. Ohio State, 126 (18)
2. Penn State, 102
3. Indiana, 92
4. Michigan, 73
5. Rutgers, 41
6. Maryland, 37
7. Michigan State, 33

West Division

1. Wisconsin, 126 (18)
2. Iowa, 101
3. Minnesota, 74
4. Northwestern, 76
5. Nebraska, 61
6. Purdue, 37
7. Illinois, 23

Teams with a first-place vote earn seven points, second-place votes earn six points, etc.

Big Ten champion

Ohio State (18)

21 hours ago, Jpetermbb said:

My buddy gets the Phil Steele magazine every year and while I don't remember everything he said, i believe Phil said all nine of his models have Nebraska in a bowl (or maybe winning record) and that this was Nebraska's most talented team under Frost

I need to pick up a Steele, it's just harder now that only Barnes and Noble carries it.

CFN game by game predictions are up.

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Big Ten East Predicted Finish

1. Ohio State
T2. Michigan
T2. Penn State
4. Indiana
5. Michigan State
6. Rutgers
7. Maryland

 

Big Ten West Predicted Finish

1. Wisconsin
2. Iowa
T3. Northwestern
T3. Purdue
T5. Minnesota
T5. Nebraska
7. Illinois

 

Game By Game Predictions - Big Ten East

Game By Game Predictions - Big Ten West

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Nebraska Cornhuskers - Game By Game Prediction

2021 Preseason Prediction: 5-7
2021 Big Ten Prediction: 3-6
2020: 3-5, Prediction: 6-6
2019: 5-7, Prediction: 6-6

Aug. 28 at Illinois  L
Sept. 4 OPEN DATE
Sept. 11 Buffalo W
Sept. 18 at Oklahoma  L
Sept. 25 at Michigan State  L
Oct. 2 Northwestern W
Oct. 9 Michigan  L
Oct. 16 at Minnesota  L
Oct. 23 OPEN DATE
Oct. 30 Purdue W
Nov. 6 Ohio State  L
Nov. 13 SE Louisiana W
Nov. 20 at Wisconsin L
Nov. 26 Iowa W

Athletic preview is up.

Athletic preview is up.

It speaks more about the fanbase, and less about the football program.

We'll all stick together,
In all kinds of weather,
For dear old Nebraska U.

Just now, JJ Husker said:

 

No. They haven’t shaken me lose in the last 20 years so obviously that is not an option. My point was that Pederson caused incalculable damage to this program. We do not need another deal like that.

 

Moos was an outsider and I kind of liked him. But his bosses apparently made it clear what he could and could not do as regards the football team and coach. As long as somebody is making sure we don’t go down the Pederson/Callahan road again, Im good.

Pederson was an insider though...