Saunders

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Side note: This is the first preview from a guy/group I've followed on twitter for a while (@nocontextcfb) and for their first attempt, it's pretty damn good. It's only $10 for the digital version, so if you want the rest of the conference/teams, check it out. https://transferportalcfb.gumroad.com/l/collegefootballpreviewguide

And no, I'm not getting paid for this.

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College Football Win Totals 2023 Big Ten Predictions Odds Consensus Picks

What are the college football win totals and odds for the 2023 season from CFN, BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel for every Big Ten team?

Below are the win totals and the line set for every Big Ten team going into the 2023 season. First, we take the win totals from each team's preview - where the bar should be set - and then list the Big Ten win totals from BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel - click on them for the best deals and values. After that is last year's win total, then our 2023 win total prediction - click on the Schedule, Game Predictions for the breakdown for each team - and then, finally, the 2023 Consensus Win Total taking our projection and the currently listed total from the three betting houses.

https://collegefootballnews.com/cfn/college-football-win-totals-2023-big-ten-predictions-odds-consensus-picks

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Nebraska
2023 Team Preview 
Schedule, Game Predictions
CFN (Set Win Total At): 6.5
BetMGM: 6.5
DraftKings: 6
FanDuel: 6.5
2022 Regular Season Win Total: 4
2023 CFN Win Total Prediction: 7
2023 Consensus Win Total: 6.38

I'll take it.

I know this is gonna get lost in the mess, but I'll take the under.

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2023 Big Ten West college football preview: Projections, burning questions for each team

Next year, everything changes. College football begins the era of a 12-team playoff and 16-team megaconferences. The Big Ten will be responsible for the most jarring of all changes, the additions of USC and UCLA. Soon we will live in a universe in which UCLA and Rutgers are conference mates. It's going to take a while for that universe to feel like home.

It's almost comforting, then, to take some time to say hello to an old, reliable (and soon outdated) friend: the Big Ten West.

I've been as loud as anyone in advocating for the ditching of divisions in favor of a scheduling structure with permanent rivals and rotated opponents. It will make sure everyone in these huge conferences plays each other more often and will assure that a given conference title game is between its two best teams. But I have to admit, I'm going to miss the Big Ten West. As a competitive entity, it certainly wasn't great. Sometimes it wasn't even good. Its champions have gone 0-9 in the Big Ten championship game, losing by an average score of 37-16. But no division has had such a reliable identity. The rest of the world could try to keep up with the offense-friendly times; the Big Ten West, however, has continued to live the defense-and-power-football life.

Last year alone, West teams ranked first (Iowa), second (Illinois), fifth (Minnesota) and 14th (Wisconsin) in defensive SP+, while Purdue's No. 50 offense was by far the best of the bunch. In this year's SP+ projections, four of the nation's top defenses live in the West. No top 40 offenses do.

You be you, West. Let's preview you one last time.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/37970401/2023-college-football-big-ten-west-wisconsin-iowa-nebraska

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How long will it take Matt Rhule at Nebraska?

We're many thousands of words into this preview, and Nebraska has barely come up. Considering how much this sport adheres to its historic balance of power -- most of the same blue bloods have run the sport for 100 years, and the club of dominant programs almost never welcomes new members -- it's jarring that the Huskers, just about the nation's best program for 30 years, have become such an afterthought. But that's what happens when a team suffers six losing seasons in seven years and hasn't won a conference title in nearly 25.

Five years ago, Nebraska made the most no-brainer hire imaginable, bringing in Scott Frost, a former national-title winning quarterback for the Huskers who played for legends like Tom Osborne, Bill Walsh, Bill Belichick and Bill Parcells, coached for Chip Kelly and led UCF to an unbeaten season in 2017. You couldn't possibly ask for a better pedigree than that; he went 16-31.

 

Now comes another nearly perfect pedigree. After a three-year sojourn in the NFL, Matt Rhule came back to the college level to take over the Huskers program. In two college head coaching stints, Rhule did exactly what will be required in Lincoln: strip the house down to the studs and build a winner with culture and player development. His first Temple team lost 10 games; his third and fourth each won 10. His first Baylor team lost 11 games; his third won 11.

The transfer portal has sped up rebuilding projects -- you don't necessarily have to strip things down to the foundation anymore -- and Rhule seems to be embracing it. He brought in veterans like Georgia Tech quarterback Jeff Sims, Virginia slot receiver Billy Kemp IV, Georgia tight end Arik Gilbert (who needs a waiver to play in 2023) and Arizona State center Ben Scott, plus a number of young former blue-chippers such as Texas A&M defensive tackle Elijah Jeudy and Florida safety Corey Collier Jr.

Rhule's coordinator hires were not the most exciting in the world. Marcus Satterfield's FBS offenses (including two with Rhule at Temple) have averaged offensive SP+ rankings of 83.0, and Tony White's defenses have averaged rankings of 53.5. While Sims is a fun dual-threat player, and the starting lineup should have more proven talent than it did a year ago, I don't really see the level of talent required to make a surprise challenge for the West or anything. But (a) you have to get back to .500 before you can worry about titles, and (b) while the nonconference slate is soft enough that a fast start could get the Huskers to 6-6, Nebraska hired Rhule for what he does in his third or fourth season, not what he does out of the gate. This marriage seems to have plenty of potential, and I assume it will succeed.

You know, just like I assumed Scott Frost would succeed.

 

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2023 projections

TEAM	SP+ RK	OFF.	DEF.	AVG. W	CONF. W
Wisconsin	15.8 (19)	31.4 (41)	15.6 (7)	8.8	6.1
Iowa	13.2 (29)	23.2 (81)	10.1 (1)	8.1	5.6
Minnesota	12.0 (31)	27.7 (63)	15.7 (9)	6.8	4.6
Illinois	7.0 (44)	22.7 (86)	15.7 (8)	6.5	4.3
Purdue	5.7 (48)	30.6 (45)	24.9 (52)	5.6	3.6
Nebraska	5.3 (49)	27.3 (65)	22.0 (35)	6.2	3.6
Northwestern	-6.7 (83)	14.6 (126)	21.3 (28)	3.7	1.7

Just now, RedDenver said:

I think it's really just that we're bad. We've had some bad luck to lose some of those games, but we've also had good luck to keep it within one score.

I think the athletes/talent keep us in the games (which matches the recruiting rankings) but the coaching/development is the reason for the close losses that could/should be wins 50% of the time.

45 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

I don't think we actually had bad luck - just regular luck. There's always going to be things that don't go our way, and we do not yet have a team capable of overcoming things going wrong.

It's definitely more than regular bad luck. It's horrible luck and just doing everything possible to lose.

On 6/30/2023 at 8:07 PM, CyHawk said:

"Being Iowa fan is just sad.  We are in the midst of the worst stretch of Husker football in a long, long time, yet more people care about the Huskers.  Oh, and we beat Iowa this year."

 

Yes, the huskers beat the team with one of the worst offenses in D1. Iowa has been horrible the past 2 years on offense. I will give you that.

The irony is Iowa fans gloating about "the streak" during arguably their best stretch ever during our worst stretch ever, and yet still barely beating us during that streak. Iowa fans were quick to trot out "huck the fuskers" shirts back in 2002 and enjoyed NU's downturn more than your own teams success. It's weird, and kind of sad to be honest.

On 6/30/2023 at 8:07 PM, CyHawk said:

The reasoning behind folks like us caring about the Huskers is how your team went about winning, and how your fans were demeaning to other teams and fans way back in the last century when they were good. Remember when you all would applaud for the losing team as they came off the field after a 40, 50, 60 point drubbing? The reason you applauded the other team is that you were the self anointed "best fans in college football". Fast forward several years, several coaches, and a TON of horrible seasons and no longer do the greatest fans applaud the losing team (btw, far fewer teams lose in Lincoln). When that swagger was shoved down our throats for years, it is easy to laugh about your team now, along with the fans that have abandoned the team at many games right there in Lincoln. 

That's just objectively false. Nebraska fans do that even in losses.

Here's a look at the 3-3-5 against Minnesota.

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Herbies Hangout: 3-3-5 vs Minnesota Q1

You have all heard me for years sit and tell people that the 3-4 was fine if we wanted to run it in the B1G since Wisconsin did, tough for me to say it won’t work when the Badgers who got lesser rated recruits than us were a top 10 defense nationally with it. But I do have some concerns about the 3-3-5 holding up against teams like the Gophers, Hawkeyes, and Illinois. While offensively the Badgers and other teams are more spread you out and throw now, Tony White and the 3-3-5 did have success against the Gophers in the 2022 Pinstripe Bowl. 

https://herbieshangout.com/2023/06/26/3-3-5-vs-minnesota-q1/

 

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Herbies Hangout: 3-3-5 vs Minnesota Part 2

As we did yesterday, we will start where this post is coming from, feel free to post this link to your message boards.

You have all heard me for years sit and tell people that the 3-4 was fine if we wanted to run it in the B1G since Wisconsin did, tough for me to say it won’t work when the Badgers who got lesser rated recruits than us were a top 10 defense nationally with it. But I do have some concerns about the 3-3-5 holding up against teams like the Gophers, Hawkeyes, and Illinois. While offensively the Badgers and other teams are more spread you out and throw now, Tony White and the 3-3-5 did have success against the Gophers in the 2022 Pinstripe Bowl.

https://herbieshangout.com/2023/06/27/3-3-5-vs-minnesota-part-2/

Athlon preview us up.

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2023 Big Ten win totals, odds, picks: Predictions for every team as Ohio State, Michigan eye large numbers

First-year coaches like Matt Rhule (Nebraska) and Luke Fickell (Wisconsin) could also hit the over

The 2023 Big Ten season will be the final one in which the league features only 14 teams and two divisions. Next year, the league will expand to 16 teams with the additions of USC and UCLA and do away with divisions altogether. That means life will be more difficult for everybody in the league, and perhaps it will lead to a change in pattern between Michigan and Ohio State ruling the league with an iron fist.

Michigan and Ohio State entered their rivalry game last year at 11-0. The Wolverines had already surpassed their preseason win total of 9.5, while Ohio State had matched it at 11. The Wolverines would push past that total even further and then win the league for the second consecutive season, while the Buckeyes merely pushed.

Things were truly chaotic in the Big Ten West, however, where Purdue won the division at 8-4 overall (6-3 in Big Ten) and went over its preseason win total of 7. The Boilermakers' win total is five this year; suffice it to say the oddsmakers aren't expecting a repeat.

What am I expecting? I went through every game on the Big Ten schedule to determine how teams will finish. Last year, I went 6-5-3 in my projections, and if you had bet $1 million on all 14, you'd have made a $1.05 million profit. 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2023-big-ten-win-totals-odds-picks-predictions-for-every-team-as-ohio-state-michigan-eye-large-numbers/

 

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Nebraska

Over/under 6 wins

Wins: at Colorado, Northern Illinois, Louisiana Tech, Iowa, Maryland, Northwestern, Purdue
Losses: at Illinois, Michigan, at Michigan State, at Minnesota, at Wisconsin

Analysis: Call your friends! Call your neighbors! I've got Nebraska going bowling for the first time since 2016! History suggests that the first year of a Matt Rhule tenure can be rough, but the situation Rhule's inheriting at Nebraska is better than the spots he inherited before. Plus, the transfer portal speeds things up. We saw what an upgrade in coaching could do for a team like Illinois, and I see Nebraska in a similar situation. Plus, the schedule isn't incredibly challenging. The only home game I have the Huskers losing is Michigan, and there are possible wins on that road slate. Pick: Over 6 (-130)

 

Athlon preview is up.

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Athlon Sports: #55 Nebraska Preview

A new era at Nebraska is underway with Matt Rhule taking over following a disappointing stint (and later firing) from Scott Frost. Rhule's first seasons at two previous stops (Temple and Baylor) hint at a complete reset, but the Cornhuskers return enough talent to push for a bowl in '23. A couple of transfers - including former Georgia Tech quarterback Jeff Sims - should bolster the offense. And on defense, the linebacker unit and secondary should be groups of strength for new coordinator Tony White.

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/nebraska-football-cornhuskers-prediction-preview-2023

Link to larger pic.