brophog

41 minutes ago, hskrpwr13 said:

I forgot the name of the person I was listening to on radio this morning, but she was explaining how sports (again mainly football) money/exposure has driven enrollment at Bama resulting in increased academic prestige, and a boon for Tuscaloosa in general (going from sleepy college town to legitimate city). For me, this sounds very plausible to why universities, ones not traditionally compared to an Ivy League school, are driven to increase their sports profiles. 

That's absolutely true. Football is the gateway to your University.

That's why you can't take a deal on a subscription based service like Apple even if it were the same money you'd get from a national broadcast network.

51 minutes ago, Hilltop said:

One pretty good example in another B1G team- Quite a few people thought Michigan's offense was inept due to the style being run a few years ago.  They hardly ever passed the ball.

Statistically, everything is considered a run until it is not in college football. QB scrambles, sacks, occasionally screens are all counted as runs even though the intent was to pass. Teams also often run the ball more late in the game to kill clock. For these reasons when a data modeler or analyst wants to profile a team they'll throw out that sort of thing to get a better idea of the true intent of the offense.

When you look at just the raw stats, a huge swath of teams sit at that 50%-55% rush area for these reasons. Michigan under Harbaugh generally sits in that 55%-60% rush area. Where Ohio St has been getting into trouble the past few years is instead of realizing Michigan skews run, they act like they're playing Navy. Michigan still plays a lot of 3WR and even 4WR (on 3rd down) and Ohio St has been putting 8 and 9 guys in the box, playing a ton of Cover 1 and getting smoked because of it.

Michigan runs a lot of 3WR Shotgun like everyone else is, the difference is they have a better offensive line than just about anyone else.

4 minutes ago, Undone said:

Now I'm not so naive that I'd actually think that just because he said that in his first presser that it means we'd never see four receivers wide. But I'll still be pretty surprised if we see that frequently.

Between Temple and Baylor Rhule's general philosophy didn't change, but the method in which he employed it shifted. At Temple it was more two back, at Baylor it was more one back. Recruiting the respective areas has a lot to do with that. At Nebraska so far he hasn't shown through essentially 2 full classes that he'll be limited in the type of offense he can run. 

Rhule likes to talk about 'earning the right to play Minnesota'. In football, you often earn the right to run the ball, and that's what we've seen at Temple and Baylor. Even though personnel at those schools leaned differently, the trajectory of how much he ran the ball was the same....the better they got the more opportunity they had to run the ball.

As the years go on at Nebraska and he can refine how he does things it'll come down to what's working. What player types can they best recruit, what characteristics do conference defenses lean towards, etc. Some coaches are pretty set in terms of personnel groupings and pace and those sorts of things and they try to make that work for all situations and Rhule isn't really like that. If in two years all of this receiver speed he's bringing in pans out, he's not going to sit his best players because he thinks fullbacks are cute. On the other hand, if the conference shifts to more one back where defenses adjust to stop that and he thinks he can find success going counter to that trend, the way we've seen some Big12 teams win in recent years, he may do that. He's a flexible, adaptable guy and he's willing to change to best fit the situation.

4 minutes ago, runningblind said:

You misspelled 4RB

You misspelled 4TE.

And I wish I was joking.

1 hour ago, knapplc said:

RTDB Guy is going to be chuffed.

He'll put it back in his pants when he sees how much 4WR is used.

3 hours ago, 84HuskerLaw said:

Of course, Frost thought Adrian was the best QB prospect in the country too.  Lol. But these coaches are different.  Simms offers legit running and scrambling ability that we haven’t seen since Taylor M.  Imo.  Defenses will have to defend this all the time.

I really wish reporters would stop focusing on Sims running so much. They paint a false picture of both Sims as a player and Rhule's tendencies.

Expect to see upwards of 8-10 QB runs per game between scrambles and designed runs, with that number decreasing with better offensive line play. Designed QB runs are part of Rhule's offenses, but they are no where near the focus of the offense the way we often saw with Adrian and Taylor. When you combine Satterfield's offensive tendencies to Rhule's, do not be surprised if we see some runs from the QB position that are not from Jeff Sims.

26 minutes ago, BoNeyard said:

The networks are calling the shots and it is very concerning for the future of college football.

I wouldn't argue that at all. What makes this round of realignment unique is it was not initiated by a conference attempting to become stronger. This round was initiated because the networks are mostly tapped out of funds and the PAC was therefore struggling to put together a competitive media deal. Ultimately that led to member institutions leaving for better situations.

The really worrying thing here is what the financial landscape looks going forward as media distribution networks change. Nobody is really sure at the moment what the future holds as cable declines and streaming attempts to fill the gap. Financially, everyone is getting tapped out as they all spend money they don't really have to secure anchors that they think will make theconsumer choose them over their competitors.

This is very different from any previous era. In the broadcast era, the consumer had access to any of the 3 broadcast networks they were capable of receiving. In the cable era, the consumer paid one cost to the cable company and didn't really care if the networks carried by that provider were competing with one another. In the streaming era, everything is ala carte and the consumer must choose which services they will subscribe.

6 hours ago, ColoradoHusk said:

That position is the most-hybrid DL role of the 3 LB positions in the 3-3-5, as it's required to rush the passer, play coverage, and be stout against the run.

To clarify this a bit:

The Jack is your EDGE backer and the other two serve as your off ball backers.

Depending on the exact front and coverage used, all three can have a myriad of roles. Some of the most common fronts we will see:

Pinch the DL over the guards and center and roll down a backer off each end.

Spread the DL to cover both tackles and have 2 backers against the guards.

Slide the DL and have a 4 man line with the JACK

Use the previous front but roll down a Safety to act as the other edge.

The biggest advantage of this defense is in its versatility without needing to substitute with a bunch of sub packages. The three backers ability to blitz, cover, and play the run goes a long way into determining how versatile you can be.

7 hours ago, M.A. said:

Lateral movement along the line on both sides of the ball to open up spaces and close them is improving! It doesn't take just force, it takes mobility. 

Everyone has strength and nutrition programs now. The game isn't about fighting in a phone booth anymore, it's about angles and spacing.

On 8/3/2023 at 6:52 PM, admo said:

Six to Eight football games out of 12 will have windy days (passing with the wind at your back, then throwing into the wind) cold days (under 50 degrees at kickoff) really cold days with heavy wind (under 40 degrees) and possibly a wintry-mix... or a game below freezing.

 

Seems like there are always weather elements during the year that we tend to forget about in June/July/August....

I feel like some context is needed when discussing run vs pass in inclement weather. After all, you'll see half of the city of Green Bay shovel snow for Rodgers and Favre and the Siberian wilderness known as Buffalo, NY has had guys like Josh Allen and Jim Kelly.

The thing that is easily forgotten is passing is already inherently more efficient than running. That's why passing numbers across all levels are up over the decades and scoring has followed suit. The question isn't that passing is less efficient in inclement weather than it normally is, it's a question of how much and is that still relatively better than running is.

One way we can look at this question is as follows, and these are pretty typical numbers. If you average 7.0 yards per pass attempt in good weather and that gets reduced to 6.0-6.5 yards per pass attempt in inclement weather are you still better off passing if you average 4.5 yards per rush attempt.

One of the biggest mistakes you can make is giving the weather too much credit and becoming so risk averse that it begins to impact your running game, too. You can become so risk averse that you find yourself running into heavy boxes or find the other team 7 yards from the line of scrimmage.

These segments are like a monster truck dealership telling you they get great gas mileage.

They exist purely to make the league’s teams seem interesting enough to watch. 

8 hours ago, Mavric said:

Tough when we really need someone to step up there and that's the position hit hardest by injuries.

I really wish we could just move Corcoran inside and be done with it. Can't seem to get any luck on injuries or transfers or seemingly anything that would allow that to happen.

I like the guy, but I have zero confidence he's anything at that position except an emergency option.

1 hour ago, ColoradoHusk said:

After showing next to nothing last year, it would be a great if Hill was a solid contributor this year. 

I feel like that when Rhule was talking about the guys increased mobility over the summer. Nash is suddenly a ballerina and Satterfield can call a play without five TEs. I don't believe either of those things, but I've been wrong before.

58 minutes ago, Husker03 said:

There isn't enough money to focus on trying to get 50-80k people to a location 3 hours 8 times a year.

Nebraska brings in something like 6-7 mil a home game and adds about that much to the local economy per home game. Those aren't exact figures, but it's in that ballpark.

That's very substantial. Football is 4-5 times more profitable than men's basketball in part because of those large stadiums. 8 of the 11 stadiums in the world that are 100k capacity or larger are college football stadiums.

TV right now is very risky because no one knows what the future holds. Cable numbers continue to plummet and even ESPN isn't immune to that. They had a massive on air talent purge just a few weeks ago in an effort to cut expenses. Rumors have been swirling for some time that Disney may be looking to sell.

Nearly every streaming platform is losing money at the moment in a rampant surge to create/acquire as much content as possible in hopes that it allows them to break away from the pack. Peacock, who has been as aggressive as anyone in growing live sports via a streaming platform, is expected to lose 3 billion this year. There's a good reason Apple's offer was not only fairly low, but incentive based.....no one really knows yet if any streaming partner is strong enough at the moment to carry live sports in the way we're accustomed to with cable. The BIG was smart, imo, not only in diversifying their media portfolio, but in continuing to partner with broadcast television. It's the safest avenue right now and the BIG are as strong as they are in this current round because they prioritized those broadcast time slots.

26 minutes ago, nic said:

followed by getting beat by the BiG12 for the last real piece of leftover pie.

I do agree with this.

26 minutes ago, nic said:

Equal distribution

I don't agree with his take here, and I'll give you a few examples.

In international soccer, Spain's league worked like this where Barcelona and Real Madrid got a much bigger piece of the pie. The problem is when they tried to sell their international television rights they didn't get a lot because the only two teams anyone internationally cared about was those two, so that was at most two games a week anyone cared about. Meanwhile, by far the richest league in the world is the English league because they have many more teams of interest.

That was the case when Nebraska joined the Big10. One of the reasons you want a brand like that is it makes a bunch of games more interesting. Now Nebraska-Purdue is more interesting, Nebraska-Indiana is more interesting, etc. That's why adding big national brands helps a conference because it effectively multiples the number of games that have a chance of having higher ratings.

When USC and UCLA leave it creates this situation they're in because you hadn't really built up any other programs of interest to make someone like Cal or Wash St  interesting. Of the remaining schools, almost all of the higher rated games involved Oregon because that was the only real brand left in the conference.

He does make a very good point about the PAC Network distribution and why it going alone was a terrible idea. It's very common for deals for these sports networks to happen right before the season starts because angry fans calling into a cable provider provide a lot of leverage. Well, if the PAC Network was part of ESPN or FOX then when their carriage fees are negotiated, they come along for the ride as part of the family of networks. As he points out, by going alone they had no such leverage and therefore no distribution avenue.

There has been a lot of good interviews this camp, but Ben Scott's is one I'd definitely recommend. Talk about leadership and experience. Of all the things he said though, the one that really caught my attention is when he's talking about pass protection calls. He talks about how we (the offensive line) need to put our heads together and figure out how we want to call this. It wasn't in reference to how the coaches tell them to do something, it was ownership, as a unit, on how they were going to do things. Everything he said was that way. Not mean, not arrogant, but very matter of fact and with a plan of action.

Great listen, highly recommend.

If things play out tonight the way it sounds, gotta tip your hat to the Big 12. They went from perceived dead to 16 members and despite no major brand value in football they'll have a very healthy TV contract.

23 minutes ago, runningblind said:

I'm no math major, but 40 million is larger than 20....

An issue along with the money was the loss of exposure tying yourself to a subscription based streaming service. Exposure was already a problem for the conference considering the time zone issues with the majority of people living in the eastern half of the US.

10 minutes ago, Loebarth said:

Honestly, I think what this will cause/create/evolve into is fewer 1 loss teams. Schedules just got a whole lot tougher. TV venues should be packed with high level games every weekend. What will be the SEC's response. Maybe FSU, Clemson, N. Carolina and Miami?

The SEC's business model as such is selling themselves as the best conference meanwhile none of them play anyone. They don't give up their pansies, they don't commit to more conference games. Florida is just now getting to the point they play someone outside the state of Florida, and the rest of them rarely travel west of Baton Rouge.

1 minute ago, runningblind said:

I agree with you, but less than 10 AD's in D1 operate in the black every year.  Nebraska being one of them. Eveyone else is majorly in debt also, for those facilities etc.

For most schools, if you have 27 athletic programs then 25 of them are losing money. Those expenses add up quick going coast to coast.

The one thing no one is tweeting is where the PAC is getting mo money from. Until that happens, people are gonna keep flirting with other dance partners.

This is more entertaining than an actual PAC football game.

They were pretty similar in terms of limiting explosive plays in 2021 until late where some injuries got to them. They've done very good there the last two years.

That's the upside of those stats. The downside is they allowed the opposition to move the ball pretty consistently last year. Now, the opponents moved the ball slowly which aided in allowing Syracuse to grind out wins against lower ranked teams. Also note, they didn't have some massive talent that just wrecked shop, either. As talent rises, so should these numbers.

Coach Rhule might be taking Kemp into the dark alley, but I'm taking Gabe Ervin.

A couple of things I'd say in that.

First, Steele bases his models strongly on returning production, and for good reason. It tends to correlate year on year with wins at this level. So given the turnover Nebraska has had over the years, not to mention the poor record, those rankings should not come as any surprise nor do they really tell us anything we don't already know.

I want to address this passage from SSO, specifically.

Quote

The big knock on Sims is his arm, but more importantly his accuracy. People that aren’t sold on him will quote that he had 23 interceptions in 2.5 seasons while playing for Georgia Tech. But that’s a stat that our OC Satterfield quickly dismisses, stating that over half of those were when he was a true freshman thrown into the fire. And he believes that with the offense Nebraska is implementing for the QB run on top of additional development, he is poised for a breakout season throwing the ball.

Full disclosure, I can’t get a freaking read on this staff with what they believe is true, and what they are using to prop up the confidence of their players. So as of now, I don’t discredit what they say, but it is going to be taken with a grain of salt. I listen to my eyes nowadays, not my ears when it comes to Husker football predictions.

And with that said, what Sims does bring to the table is his legs.

Going in reverse order, I'll address Sims running ability. He is very much a pass first QB. This is not Lamar Jackson or Michael Vick here. His running ability is not where his bread is buttered. He's a better athlete than Charlie Brewer and PJ Walker, Rhule's first two QBs but he's similar in how you'd want to use him. Certainly call some designed QB runs, but do it smartly.

The big thing I want to address is to say completion percentage is not accuracy. Accuracy is the ability to place the ball where you want. It's a component of completion percentage, but things like play calling and decision making are as important as mechanics. With Sims, it's really important to highlight this because he's shown he's capable of games with a good completion percentage, even if his overall average isn't what you'd want.

Case in point, 2022: 7 games, overall 58.5%

23/36 63.9% vs Clemson

21/32 65.6% vs UCF

23/34 67.6% vs Duke

In 3 of his 7 games, these are the kinds of numbers we'd like to see. Where's the problem?

11/26 42.3% vs Pitt

This is typical of Jeff Sims the past 2 years. A few games he puts up a good percentage and a few are big stinkers.

Looking at his games at Georgia Tech, by and large his placement is pretty good. Satterfield has mentioned a few things he'd like to address that can help that, and that's something to watch for. What I see that causes problems is when Sims' process gets sped up. He can be woefully inaccurate when that happens. In the media days he talked about bulking up and the reporters all saw that from a running perspective, but it's my hope that it gives him the confidence to stand in the pocket and deliver the pass he wants to deliver. You don't want to have your QBs take anymore shots than necessary, but Tom Brady wouldn't have played 200 years if the rules weren't made to protect QBs in the pocket, either.

From a play calling perspective, what I've said about insulating the offensive line in the past goes here, too. Keep those chains moving. In that game against Pitt, as an example, GT was constantly in 2nd and 10, 3rd and Long. Pitt was throwing every garbage blitz they had at them and GT's receivers weren't getting open. Good recipe for a 42% completion day.

2 hours ago, gobiggergoredder said:

This is going to be the difference. Xs an Os are important, but what you talked about is what has been missing  a while.

Rhule brings up the Iowa game to the players a lot. Some of that is it was the last game. Some of it is because it was probably the most significant win in a long time. A lot of it is because of what you guys are talking about. (Notice how often he's pairing offense and defenses together in the dorms, probably not a coincidence.)

There are times in a game that if you make a play you greatly increase your chances of winning. Sometimes that's late in the game, sometimes it is early in the game. Against Iowa it was early.

Got that fumble in the 2nd Quarter already up 10-0. Punched it in to go up 17-0, which is a huge score against that particular opponent. But the next Iowa drive they went 3 and out and on that drive Nebraska played as fast and aggressive as they had in years.

That's what Rhule's teams at Baylor and Temple did well. They didn't often blow teams out and they didn't put up gaudy stats, but they more often than not won these little stretches that decide winning and losing.

4 hours ago, Hilltop said:

His post practice was impressive to me.  He seems like a very smart guy who is capable of leading

If we play as well as we talk to reporters, this will be a helluva football team.