revisiting

[kramer]

Revisiting the recruiting rankings

 

John Biever/SI

 

 

A year ago next week, Tennessee fans basked in the glory (albeit temporarily) of landing the nation's No. 1 recruiting class. This year, that honor is expected to be bestowed on Florida.

 

Question: Do such rankings necessarily equate to similar success on the field?

 

Answer: Sometimes yes, sometimes, not at all.

 

The best time to truly measure the strength of a recruiting class is several years later. Signing-day rankings are entirely theoretical, based on the assumption that all those "five-star" prospects will turn into college All-Americas -- and all those two-star guys the other schools signed will barely be able to put on their pads properly. Revisiting a class years later, however, often reveals that some of those five-stars never even became starters. Some flunked out, suffered too many injuries or transferred. Meanwhile, some other school's lesser-heralded recruits were busy playing their way to national championships and high NFL draft selections.

 

SI.com reevaluated the consensus No. 1 classes over the most recent measurable five-year period (1999-2003). Some proved to be right on the money. Others went terribly awry. In each case, we also scoured other prominent classes that year and, where applicable, crowned a "revised" No. 1 based on how it turned out.

 

Note: the consensus No. 1 class used for each year was the one tabbed No. 1 at the time by the majority of the following recruiting services: SuperPrep (Allen Wallace), Prep Football Report (Tom Lemming), The National Recruiting Advisor (Bobby Burton), National Blue Chips (Max Emfinger) and Scout.com (2002-03 only).

 

1999 No. 1: Texas

Standouts: OL Derrick Dockery, DE Cory Redding, TE Bo Scaife, QB Chris Simms, DT Marcus Tubbs

 

Starters: DB Rod Babers, OL Robbie Doane

 

Busts: DB Monti Collie, WR Artie Ellis, WR O.J. McClintock, OL Alfio Randall, RB Ivan Williams

 

Assessment: The presence of Simms and Redding, USA Today's offensive and defensive players of the year that season, created enormous expectations of Mack Brown's first full class, which, despite a five-year record of 50-15, was largely regarded as a disappointment. The class certainly produced some stars -- including five current NFL players -- but, in retrospect, wasn't all that deep.

 

Who should've been: Miami

Standouts: DB Julian Battle (All-SEC at Tennessee), DB Philip Buchanon, OL Vernon Carey, QB Ken Dorsey, WR Andre Johnson, OL Bryant McKinnie, RB Clinton Portis

 

Starters: DB Maurice Sikes

 

Busts: RB Jason Geathers, DL Marquis Johnson

 

Assessment: Fresh off probation, the Hurricanes were still flying somewhat under the radar at the time, and the class failed to crack most top-10 lists. Dorsey, Johnson, Portis and McKinnie became the offensive stars of Miami's 2001 national championship team. McKinnie, Buchanon, Johnson and Carey were first-round NFL draft picks, and Portis the 2002 Offensive Rookie of the Year.

 

2000 No. 1: Florida

Standouts: DB Guss Scott, TE Ben Troupe

 

Starters: WR Kelvin Kight, WR Carlos Perez, DL Ian Scott, OL Shannon Snell, OL Max Starks

 

Busts: QB Brock Berlin (transferred to Miami), DB DeShawn Carter, RB Willie Green, DL Darrell Lee, DB Tre Orr

 

Assessment: Berlin was one of the most hyped recruits in years, so his failure to win the starting job at UF and subsequent transfer to Miami forever put a damper on this class, particularly when the Gators' slide to mediocrity began shortly thereafter under coach Ron Zook. In truth, the class wasn't a complete disaster like some Florida fans remember it, but it certainly didn't live up to its billing.

 

Who should've been: Auburn

Standouts: RB Ronnie Brown, QB Jason Campbell, LB Karlos Dansby, RB Rudi Johnson, DB Carlos Rogers, DB Junior Rosegreen

 

Starters: LB Bret Eddins, FB Brandon Johnson, DL Jay Ratliff

 

Busts: WR Silas Daniels, DL Marcus White (transferred to Murray State)

 

Assessment: Campbell was the only nationally-prominent name in a class that cracked just one major top-10 list, but he, Brown, Rogers and Rosegreen were all cornerstones of the Tigers' 13-0 season in 2004, while Dansby was an All-SEC performer and Rudi Johnson, a junior college transfer, was SEC Offensive Player of the Year in his one season with the Tigers.

2001 No. 1: Florida State

 

Standouts: RB Eric Shelton (transferred to Louisville), WR Craphonso Thorpe

 

Starters: OL Milford Brown, DB Jerome Carter, DB Kyler Hall, WR P.K. Sam

 

Busts: LB Chauncey Davis, LB Willie Jones, OL Ron Lunford, QB Adrian McPherson, DB Dominic Robinson

 

Assessment: Of all the great classes FSU has assembled over the years, this one may go down as its most disappointing. Very few consistent starters emerged from the group. Robinson, considered one of the top skill players in the country that year, made very little impact, and McPherson's career was derailed by his legal troubles.

 

Who should've been: LSU

Standouts: WR Michael Clayton, DL Marquise Hill, DL Marcus Spears, OL Andrew Whitworth, OL Ben Wilkerson

 

Starters: RB Joseph Addai, QB Rick Clausen (transferred to Tennessee), DB Travis Daniels, OL Nate Livings, OL Rudy Niswanger, DE Melvin Oliver, CB Ronnie Prude

 

Busts: DL Brandon Washington

 

Assessment: The experts weren't far off on coach Nick Saban's first full class, with one No. 1 vote and No. 2 or 3 from the rest. You can't ask for much more from a class that produced nearly all the star players from LSU's 2003 national title season and several starters from last year's SEC West champs. Clayton, Spears and Wilkerson were all Parade All-Americas who lived up to the hype.

 

2002 No. 1: Texas

Standouts: OL Justin Blalock, LB Aaron Harris, TE David Thomas, DT Rod Wright, QB Vince Young

 

Starters: DL Larry Dibbles, DL Chase Pittman (transferred to LSU), DE Brian Robinson, CB Aaron Ross, OL Lyle Sendlein, OL Kasey Studdard, RB Selvin Young

 

Busts: WR Marquis Johnson, CB Edorian McCullough, DL Brian Pickryl

 

Assessment: If you watched the Rose Bowl, you know this class -- led by top-rated quarterback Young -- certainly fulfilled its prophecy, though not without some hitches. Besides Young, Wright and Blalock, the most heralded prospects in the class were Dibbles, McCullough and Pickryl, none of whom became stars. After the Longhorns won the national championship with this class in 2005, it would be hard to argue Texas didn't deserve No. 1.

 

Who should've been: Texas

Texas may have held the top spot, but the Longhorns weren't a runaway winner.

 

Close second: Ohio State

Standouts: LB Bobby Carpenter, RB Maurice Clarett, LB A.J. Hawk, WR Santonio Holmes, OL Nick Mangold, QB Troy Smith

 

Starters: OL Doug Datish, OL T.J. Downing, DB Tyler Everett, DB Nate Salley, DE Mike Kudla, DT Quinn Pitock, OL Rob Sims

 

Busts: LB Mike D'Andrea, CB E.J. Underwood, QB Justin Zwick

 

Assessment: No need for revision here, either; OSU was a consensus No. 2. Clarett had the biggest immediate impact, playing a huge role in the Buckeyes' 2002 title season, while Hawk, Holmes and Smith were the stars of the '05 team that beat Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. Interestingly, Zwick was far more touted than Smith, and D'Andrea was rated much higher than Hawk and Carpenter.

 

2003 No. 1: LSU

Standouts: RB Alley Broussard, QB JaMarcus Russell, S LaRon Landry

 

Starters: OL Will Arnold, WR Dwayne Bowe, DB Jessie Daniels, QB Matt Flynn, WR Craig Davis

 

Busts: RB Barrington Edwards (transferred to North Carolina), WR Amp Hill (transferred to South Florida), S Daryl Johnson

 

Assessment: This class's ultimate legacy is yet to be determined, with headliner Russell among those with two seasons of eligibility remaining, but so far there haven't been quite as many breakout stars as expected. Bowe and Davis, arguably the biggest gets behind Russell, have been inconsistent. On the plus side, Daniels and Landry were freshman contributors to the '03 title team.

 

Who should've been: USC

Standouts: OL Sam Baker, RB Reggie Bush, OL Ryan Kalil, CB Will Poole, WR Steve Smith, RB LenDale White

 

Starters: OL John Drake, QB John David Booty (projected), DT Sedrick Ellis, DE Lawrence Jackson

 

Busts: RB Chauncey Washington, WR Whitney Lewis

 

Assessment: At least one service did have the Trojans No. 1 on signing day, and others moved them up after Booty signed in the spring. Amazingly, in a class with a Heisman winner (Bush), a soon-to-be first-round draft pick at tailback (White) and numerous other stars of the past two BCS title games, the most heralded prospect in the entire class was Lewis, who has yet to pan out.