Thus, no matter how good the defense will be, given the predicted state of the offense, and the unknown nature of special teams, and then combine that with the schedule difficulty... well... prepare for a 5 loss season or so. It will still be fun and will still be interesting... but lets get real here folks... this upcoming season will be more rocky than smooth. Outside pundits are way over stating our case as national contenders.. it sells well. But insiders like us should know... NU is in for a rocky season.
This is presuming that none of our 2010 offensive struggles had anything to do with our #1 QB's debilitating injury(ies), our #2 QB going down at the same time, our #3 QB suffering a concussion in his first start, our OC and WR coaches having checked out mid-season since they knew this was their last season at Nebraska, our O-Line coach being incapable/overwhelmed, and sundry injuries to our linemen in general. That's a difficult presumption to make.
Granted, it is also difficult to presume that we've got all these problems fixed. We're breaking in a new OC and WR coach, a new offensive philosophy, we do not know yet how well mentally and physically our #1 QB will heal, and we do not know if our O Line will improve. So that's a bit of a toss-up, but I would not be concerned that we're going to score less than we scored last year. I would presume, worst case, that we'll score about the same.
Last year's opponents had an average Scoring Defense rank of 63.5 (26.6 PPG). In-conference their ranks averaged to 56.6 (25.5 PPG).
This year's opponents, using last year's numbers, have an average Scoring Defense rank of 59.8 (57.5 PPG). In-conference their ranks averaged to 51.1 (24.4 PPG).
Not a significantly more difficult schedule trying to score against these defenses - although it is important to note that such comparisons are difficult due to graduation, coaching changes, etc.
Your presumptions as to my presumptions are not accurate. Certainly our offensive struggles were, in part, due to the QB's injury last year and also to other injuries. I assume that this year too there will be injuries as well... no one can predict how so relative to last year... but most years there will be some injuries. Our struggles against good defenses, however, transcend those injuries from last year and are both systemic and talent based. Those systemic issues may, or may not, be as much of an issue this year... who knows... we have a partial new staff and a supposed new system (remains to be seen).
My actual presumptions that lead me to say that we will improve some (likely) but not enough to be above the category of "still struggling to score" is that the QB talent in what has been field tested (TMart) is not impressive (taken as a package --- running, throwing, turnovers, decision making, durability, leadership, etc.). A healthy and more experienced TMart will likely be better --- but if so, we have not seen that improvement (he had a month to heal and work out his issues of mechanics, decision making etc. after last regular season and prior to the bowl and, in the bowl game, showed regression rather than progression --- and he had from the time of the bowl game to the Spring game, that is, months... to improve... and showed, in the Spring game, again no progression). So, he'd almost have to improve some... but that is just because he aught to... but, we have no evidence that he has improved. Again, don't pull the turf toe/ankle issue and that he is not yet healed --- that may be --- but that does not explain why his decision making, his throwing mechanics, his turnovers have shown no improvement. It explains why his running ability is still compromised, sure... but.
I also mentioned that the defenses of the opponents next year will be better than those from last year... and your numbers bear that out... but do not capture what I surmise is the reality that the difference is greater than those numbers indicate.
An unstated presumption (not even implied in my earlier post) is that the number of penalties, the number of dropped passes, the number of fumbles that held back our past offensive productivity --- and the proclivity that this team has for showing up unfocused and ill prepared --- well, that will likely hold us back again.
The Spring game was way sloppy... watch the televised Spring games of other teams and you will see that NU had way more penalties, more drops and more fumbles than did those that were televised for other teams. I'd guess that lack of discipline will haunt our offense again.
Yep... we will likely have trouble scoring again. Might be modestly better. But we will still struggle.
