Dr. Strangelove

1 hour ago, Born N Bled Red said:

 

This only further proves that the right is willing to do or say anything to remain in power. Any other issue, the conservatives scream "States Rights!!! States should decide!!!" Even on something so federal as to the BORDER of the United States and how it is policed. Yet, when it comes to TRUMP, suddenly the states have NO power. Cohesiveness of thought, fairness in decision making, and consistency are all lacking so called justices, who will do anything to placate Trump and the right....

 

And Archy, before you come back with the derp "left wing justices ruled this way too." They rule that way on every federal/state matter, and argue that the states do not have the right to supersede federal law. They are at least consistent in their reasoning. 

Honestly, Liberal States were ridiculously stupid to attempt to kick him off the ballot. 

Democrats need a national strategy to counter the Trump horde. Doing dumb things like this only helps Trump. Now he can claim he's exonerated and the moronic voters that make up the American electorate will believe him. It had a 0% chance of success and was not legal from the start. 

6 hours ago, Scarlet said:

 

Quinnippiac's poll just a month ago had it Biden 58% Trump 36%.  Yeah, so weird numbers. That's what I'm saying.

 

Do you really think that after all the special elections after Roe where the Republicans got trounced, after the IVF debacle in Alabama, after Trump consistently underperforms the polls in the primaries, and after the Republicans are signaling they are going to try to restrict birth control that the data showing gaining women voters is accurate?  When was the last time you answered a random robo call? 

 

Biden may wind up losing in November but to say it's over now after a New York Times poll in March is silly.  I mean isn't Biden outpacing Trump with small donation donors?  Isn't his warchest far larger than Trump's? That might be a more accurate data point than polling whatever lunatics answer random calls then trying to weight the results from that.  

At a certain point though, what you're saying needs to be reflected in polling or in favorability ratings.

The problem is that you assume that voters properly blame the responsible political party for negative events. But the reality is that voters who are concerned about IVF procedures, the Dobbs decision, or that Donald Trump is a rapist, are already tuned into politics and already support Democrats. The other voters are pretty stupid, don't pay attention to politics, and think that because Biden is President, he's responsible for these things. 

These voters are hard to reach, don't often vote, and actively dislike politics. They dislike Joe Biden at the moment and Democrats need to win over huge chunks of these voters over 8 months to still lose. Democrats are running out of time. 

20 minutes ago, teachercd said:

Betting line is still pretty much 50/50

 

 

Which is approximately where it should be. The real odds are 55% Trump/45% Biden, assuming Biden gains ground over the summer. 

Most people terrified of Trump and who are watching the sheer stupidity of the American voter are huffing a lot of hopium trying to rationalize these numbers. 

5 hours ago, Gage County said:

You can't make this stuff up!

 

Democrat stupidity at its finest. They are so preoccupied with performative politics that it's going to lead to a Republican tri-fecta next January. It's hard for Biden favorable to improve when Democrats attack themselves. 

Joe Biden needs to gain 8% to lose like Hillary Clinton did in 2016. He needs to gain 10% to have a shot at winning. Some people would say this election is Joever.

1 hour ago, commando said:

 

The vibes based impeachment is sort of imploding.

It is only March, so I am curious about what else they do to anger farm their voters until November. Or, they just quadruple down on xenophobia from now until election day.

My God this is hilarious. It's so blatantly obvious that Republicans aren't serious about Hunter Biden but their voters eat this alive to reconcile their own support for corruption. 

1 hour ago, Archy1221 said:

Ah yes.   If you or the person you bought said weapon from owned it 38 yrs ago and the sale was approved by ATF this would be true I guess. 

I forget that their brains are being blown out by non-automatic weapons that are easily modified or just fire really fast after being legally purchased, my apologies. 

42 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Which you forgot to mention is good for the country until that point! 

Yes, their steadfast dedication to originalitist jurisprudence allowing Americans to own automatic weapons - just like the Founding Fathers intended - has notoriously been good for the country. Particularly school children who's brains get patriotically plastered onto classroom walls.

15 hours ago, Danny Bateman said:

SCOTUS so high on their own supply as high-minded apolitical neutral arbiters of the law (lol) that they just took up Trump’s ridiculous immunity argument that’s been destroyed at every lower level so they can in effect gift him another delay trying to run out the clock on justice.

 

SCOTUS is a bad joke. There’s a reason their reputation is in the toilet.

 

With lots of evidence they themselves are openly corrupt and able to be bought for the highest bidder, it’s no mistake they want to let the slimiest, most corrupt scumbag in our political hellscape slide by on his rather obvious crimes.

 

But HEY! Look over HERE! It’s Hunter’s schlong!

Honestly this is pretty hilarious. You have to admit, Republicans going from "Lock her up!" to "it's absolutely essential that the President be allowed to commit crimes" is quite amazing. Of course, Republican voters are immune from irony so this - like many things - is lost on them. 

Regarding SCOTUS, it's unfortunate that two of their members are openly compromised and obviously corrupt. Without a miracle, the court will be a Heritage Foundation/Federalist Society outpost for a generation. I'm not sure if or when liberal Justices will control the court again, but it's likely going to be decades.

16 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

I remember way way way back when Romney was “gonna put you all back in chains” and mocked for wanting to hire women in his administration if elected (binders full of women).  That he was gonna gut SS and throw grandma off a cliff.  That he was a Private Equity robber Barron that didn’t care about Black people.   Ahhhhh, but now people long for the sensible Romney
 

Remember way back in the Time Machine when McCain was just a war monger and racist for wanting to “finish the dang fence”.  When he was too old to elect.  Ohhh, but now we would all vote for them.  Gotcha. 
 

Cheney….well I mean do we really need to go down that road and see what the Left thought of her pre-Trump??  I didn’t think so.   

You're describing politics as normal. It's stupid, but part of the game. 

What's not normal creating a fake elector scheme to undermine a fair election, inciting an insurrection, and using the propaganda straight from the Kremlin on your own constituency. 

The contempt Republican elected officials have for their own voters is funny. They repeatedly use and abuse them - literally to pay for the many criminal trials and judgements of their party leader. Such is the case when you create a horde of voters disconnected from reality. You people need to respect yourselves and vote better. 

7 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

Yep, my world view is considered warped, yet you vote with these types of people.  Democrat media thought leaders in action.   Keep voting, just change the way you vote, please for humanities sake. 
 

 

What does this mean? Is this guy an elected official or a candidate for office or something? 

Truthfully, Democrats and people on the left who do hold dumb views on Gaza - including any moron who claims its a 'genocide' - needs to be put on a rocket ship and launched into the nearest super massive black hole, never to be seen or heard from again. 

Don't make the mistake of thinking I agree with every online lefty nutjob just because I mock and deride Trump voters. I vote for Democrats because it's the only (often stupid, often with bad ideas) option to choose from. 

9 hours ago, commando said:

i bet i could win if i ran for president if i promised to use atomic land mines on the border.

You are dangerously close to being a write in candidate to certain members of this board of you keep it up. 

If you rack up a few dozen felonies, look out. 

9 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

Noted bad border bill that legalized the current inflow of illegal aliens that The Big Guy caused is shut down.   Sad trombone plays for those affected.  

How can a border bill that hasn't passed legalize anything? I'm genuinely unsure of what this even means.

Also, I hope you understand that your use of "The Big Guy" screens "I fall for Kremlin propaganda easily", my advice is to recognize this and to support political causes that aren't so easily influenced by foreign adversaries. 

5 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

And you’ve fallen for the Mueller report exonerated him.  Even though Mueller said it didn’t.  

Yup.

17 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

Projection to go with the copium.

It's astonishing.

I mean, the idea of Putin preferring Biden - who is currently trying to give Ukraine billions of dollars worth of military equipment - in lieu of Trump who's party doesn't want to give Ukraine military equipment... is just insane. 

12 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

Trump won because of two things.  The "lock her up" crowd swarmed behind him and every time he was on stage he threatened her.  He didn't talk about issues. He just ranted and called people names.  MAGA loved it.  THEN, Comey announces the investigation into Hillary a month before.  That's why he won.  He was the same piece of s#!t he is now.

This is a pretty good summary. Trump won because he tapped into white conspiratorial anger.

Nobody wants to admit this because it's a confession that these people are dangerous. So we tip toe around it by coming up with alternatives to rationalize why Trump won, whether it was a savvy campaign (it wasnt) that Trump was a good candidate (he isn't) or that Hillary was a worse candidate (partially true). 

The reality is more banal. Trump simply harnessed the anger that has been boiling under white grievance. Now, Republicans throw gasoline and fuel this anger to serve their political goals. It's really that simple. A voter base that is now completely disconnected from reality, ready to be angry at whatever is thrown at them. 

9 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

Trump won because of the following:

 

He was willing to talk about the border issues and make it a central theme.

 

He campaigned in the upper Midwest and HRC didn’t. 
 

HRC was un-likable and people rightfully believed HRC thought she was above the law with her deleted emails and illegal server.   People didn’t like that.   

This is a funny way of saying "tapped into rural white voter xenophobia, stupidity, and anger" by saying and doing things Republicans were worried about doing for decades. Trump just had the shameless ability to tap into it. 

Furthermore, the extreme irony of you saying Trump supporters don't like it when elites like Hillary Clinton think they're above the law is... beyond parody. You, a two time Trump voter, grifted into supporting a rapist-career-criminal-and-con-artist, are actually saying it's because Trump supporters care about politicians following the law?

Please Archy1221, I beg you, stop being involved in politics. It's not for you. And understand that there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. Stop watching Newsmax, end your Brietbart subscription, and spend your emotional energy on your family or something. Whatever it is, stop voting. Disengage from politics all together. 

3 hours ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

How far down the rabbit hole do you have to go to actually believe this is what liberals want?

He's pretty far gone. But that's sort of par for the course for two time Trump voters.

 Noted arm of liberal propaganda Fox News with this gem. 

1 minute ago, Archy1221 said:

Somebody’s testy.  Must have hit a truth nerve.  

I don't know what this means. 

6 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Colorados senior citizen population has increased 4.7% as a share of the populace just in the past 12 years 

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here. The share of college educated voters in Colorado has increased dramatically since 2010. The share of college educated voters moving to Phoneix and Atlanta are increasing dramatically as well. The reason Biden won Arizona and Georgia isn't because he changed the hearts and minds of the voters in those states, opinions cultivated over decades, it's because people from liberal states moved there.

22 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Since Nixon re-election, Oklahoma R presidential voting has stayed between 60-66% support in every election but 1 I believe.  The last few elections have been consistent in the 65% range.  

The population has increased by 1.2 million people in that timeframe and gotten less white by 10% 82% down to 72%.  

@Dr. Strangelove

As the population has become less white, the voting patterns have become more Republican.  

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Oklahoma

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_Oklahoma

Race baiting voters is a thing Republicans do well. These voters aren't historic democrats, they are low propensity voters who don't care about or follow politics until they get angry at something - in this case immigrants - and they vote accordingly.

37 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

My previous voting for Trump had no bearing on what The Big Guy is/has gone through.   It wasn’t an issue in 2020 because people like you proclaimed the laptop to be Russian Disinformation despite the IC agencies telling you differently.   Your extreme partisanship prevents you from acknowledging basic facts.  
 

Your poor political choices also made you believe and probably currently still do that Russia was the cause of the 2016 Trump win and that he collided with Russia.  Your extreme political partisanship keeps you voting for the old man who can’t remember anything.   Unlike you, I will be writing in a candidates name (Ron DeSantis).   You will be voting for a mush brain with a 38% approval rating who gave us an extremely awful border situation and foreign policy disasters.  Congrats!!!!!   

This, my friends, is what we call projection.

I do not believe that Trump won in 2016 because of collusion with Russia - they helped his campaign by targeting his gullible voters just like they're doing now. You voted for a rapist and a career conman, and everybody with a half dozen functioning neurons told you it was a bad idea to vote for him and you did it anyway. 

Please, for the good of America, stop voting. You've done enough damage to our institutions as it is.

22 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

UHM, IT IS ON A TABLE SAW, IT IS ALL OVER THE FLOOR - if it looks like, tastes likes, act like saw dust it is saw dust.   But wait - there are 3 lines.  I guess he was snorting saw dust.  All of my younger years in home building, if I only knew I could get high on saw dust.. oh what a shame for such wasted years!!!

 

And to tell you how much of a creep Hannity is - he brags about being the poor construction worker who worked so hard that he is where he is today - starting from his days in construction.  He knows better and his lies and gaslighting only proves him to be a lying cult member all the more. 

The funny thing is, let's hypothetically assume that this is primo-grade-A-Columbian cocaine.

In what world does this matter to the current President? 

1 hour ago, Archy1221 said:

And I’ve told you many times that voters change their minds enough to switch states from red to blue and blue to red.   It’s why we have swing states and some of those swing states have changed in and out over time too.  

This is fundamentally untrue.

Colorado, for example, didn't switch from swing state to becoming solidly blue because of Democrats changing the minds of Reagan voters from the 1980s. Colorado is blue because young, college educated people have moved into the state from other states essentially out numbering them. Texas is turning blue not because Democrats are mass changing the minds of Republican voters who've lived in the state for decades, it's because people are moving there and are beginning to outnumber them. The same thing is true for other swing states that are now Red, such as Iowa or Ohio. College educated voters are leaving those states, making them redder and redder over time. States change largely because of demographic shifts over time, not because huge swaths of the electorate suddenly change their political views.

What Trump and the MAGA movement have successfully done is awaken huge swaths of voters who didn't care much or participate in politics prior to 2016. By mobilizing an easily manipulated cohort of voters, he has cultivated a powerful political movement that allows him to be competitive in elections. This has also contributed to the red shift in former swing states.

1 hour ago, Archy1221 said:

Well I would counter by saying I have voted for a Democrat governor and a Republican Governor (more of these) over the course my voting timeline.  I even voted once for a Blue Dog House candidate in 2006 I believe because the R candidate was terrible.  Would you be able to say the same?   Or have you voted party line throughout?  When have you crossed party lines in a national election?  
 

I would say I am not the poster child for your incorrect line of thinking.   You would need to find someone else.   

I've told you previously I voted for Ben Sasse in 2020 because his opponent was terrible.

Additionally, you currently believe that Biden is part of a large corruption scandal despite huge swaths of evidence - admitted to even by Republicans - that it is largely made up, without evidence, and includes no crimes. But you believe in this in order to reconcile your own support for corrupt candidates as a two time Trump voter. This makes you a poster child for extreme partisanship studied by academics who are amazed that voters can construct their own reality, devoid of facts or a basis in reason, in order to fit the world around their poor political preferences.

1 hour ago, Archy1221 said:

Looks like we have another person that proves voters do change their mind. 

I'm pretty sure I've said many times that in the aggregate, voter preferences do not change enough to win elections. Individual voters change their mind in small numbers, particularly those plugged into politics enough to post about it on the internet. 

2 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

Voters who reached 18 and voted Democrat are now 45-55 and vote Republican.  Hence they changed their mind.   Cross tab polling data has shown for decades that Democrats win the young vote and Republicans tend to win the older vote.   People aren’t just born older.   Over time they change their mind of how to vote. 

This is much less true today than it was 40 years ago. Partisanship has increases dramatically since the 1980s. You're kind of the poster child for believing in your political beliefs even when they're completely disconnected from reality. It's kind of funny you, of all people, are posting about voters changing their minds. 

Also, to be clear, voters vote preferences stick once they reach their mid 20s. Young people do change their minds but it's becoming less common, voting preferences are becoming more rigid.

On 2/19/2024 at 6:57 PM, nic said:

 

 

It's absolutely wild that the border was an orderly and non-chaotic place prior to 2021. I'm not an expert, but this is news to me. 

2 hours ago, Danny Bateman said:

Meh, maybe, maybe not. It’s a binary outcome. One of the two sides wins. So I don’t get too caught up in gaming out different variables or minor factors like third party. I’m sure as s#!t not losing any sleep over a Kennedy failson or some No Labels circlejerk that might impact things on the margins.

 

Since I’m 100% locked in with my vote with no reservations, there are a couple points I hang my hat on that keep me sane these days.

 

One is just that it’s not even March. The primary is still ongoing for both parties, nominally. There’s still so much that will happen yet that will affect public opinion and ultimately voting intention. The average American voter has the attention span of a goldfish. Thus I no more trust a poll for the November election in February than I do a primary poll in May of 2023.

 

The other piece is that Trump hemorrhages support among his soft supporters if he’s convicted of ANYTHING. This one is a bit more conditional, as it requires the very slow burn of our justice system to continue cranking along and ultimately bend toward actual accountability. But if it does his non MAGA supporters are going to head for the exits. Poor, he loses. He simply cannot win with the hardcores alone. Thus I also don’t give a single rip what the hardcore MAGA crowd thinks or does. Once most voters stop daydreaming that this rematch isn’t inevitable, as much as we all don’t want it to be, many of the will realize Trump is the same corrupt, self-serving obnoxious prick he’s always been and they still really dislike him. Coupled with an actual criminal record I think it’s enough to sink him.

 

I actually agree with most of your analysis and generally really enjoy your input anyway, this is merely playing devil’s advocate to find silver linings for anyone who’s too stressed out by all of this.

I think this is a fair take. 

We'll get an idea over the summer if Trump's legal woes actually start to erode his electoral support. Being liable for rape and defaming his victim seem to have little to no effect on his support thus far. He's also likely to get a bump when SCOTUS rules in his favor in the Colorado case.

One main point you make which is completely valid is that the average voter is still unaware that Trump has essentially clinched the nomination. Polling this far out isn't accurate, and the true gravity of a 2020 rematch may not be reflected in polling thus far. 

3 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

Talk about fact Checking. Whoa….

 

 

Just so I'm keeping score, the main witnesses to this entire charade was a Chinese spy and a Russian spy?

I had no idea the Democrat-cabal reached such depths. Joe "The Big Guy" Biden's corruption is so deep, it ties to both the Chinese and Russian espionage efforts.