beorach
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Posts posted by beorach
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I'm updating these lists again to include the six teams in the mix from P5 conferences and ND. In the interest of defending my SOS rankings, please also consider the following...
Alabama has played no great teams (average category percentile rating of at least 68), three above-average teams (average category percentile rating between 50 and 68), two below-average teams (average category percentile rating between 32 and 50), and four bad teams (average category percentile rating no greater than 32).
Clemson has played no great teams, three above-average teams, five below-average teams, and two bad teams.
Georgia has played no great teams, five above-average teams, three below-average teams, and one bad team.
Notre Dame has played one great team, four above-average teams, four below-average teams, and one bad team.
Ohio State has played one great team, four above-average teams, three below-average teams, and three bad teams.
Oklahoma has played no great teams, three above-average teams, seven below-average teams, and no bad team.
No SOS considered
SOS considered
SOS Rankings
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I wasn't considering just the games against other P5 teams last year at this time so the 2017 percentiles below are calculated with respect to bowl and playoff games as well (because that snapshot in time wasn't available via cfbstats.com). That's not the most disappointing thing I discovered for that site, though. I was hoping to do a comparison of NU stats for November only but you can't use two filters (so those stats would include the SEC cupcake games played the weekend before last). Why should anything having to do with college football be perfect, though, aside from the 1995 squad's championship run?
PASSING DEFENSE
completions per game: 24th in 2018 versus 65th in 2017
percentage: 76th versus 14th
yards per attempt: 68th versus 24th
touchdowns per game: 61st versus 47th
rating: 72nd versus 18th
yards per game: 31st versus 66th
Avg. percentile ratings for this category: 55 (2018) to 39 (2017)
PASSING OFFENSE
completions per game: 73rd versus 76th
percentage: 79th versus 54th
yards per attempt: 53rd versus 58th
touchdowns per game: 40th versus 82nd
rating: 56th versus 55th
yards per game: 64th versus 81st
Avg. percentile rating for this category: 61 to 68
RUSHING DEFENSE
yards per game: 21st versus 7th
touchdowns per game: 10th versus 3rd
yards per carry: 18th versus 4th
Avg. percentile rating for this category: 16 to 5
RUSHING OFFENSE
yards per game: 81st versus 10th
touchdowns per game: 80th versus 14th
yards per carry: 90th versus 14th
Avg. percentile rating for this category: 84 to 13
SCORING DEFENSE
touchdowns per game: 24th versus 6th
points per game: 22nd versus 10th
Avg. percentile rating for this category: 23 to 8
SCORING OFFENSE
touchdowns per game: 57th versus 41st
points per game: 57th versus 35th
Avg. percentile rating for this category: 57 to 38
TOTAL DEFENSE
yards per play: 37th versus 8th
yards per game: 18th versus 18th
plays per game: 8th versus 63rd
Avg. percentile rating for this category: 21 to 30
TOTAL OFFENSE
yards per play: 80th versus 50th
yards per game: 84th versus 41st
plays per game: 70th versus 34th
Avg. percentile rating for this category: 78 to 42
TURNOVER MARGIN
fumbles gained per game: 58th versus 6th
interceptions gained per game: 47th versus 31st
turnovers gained per game: 52nd versus 9th
fumbles lost per game: 7th versus 95th
interceptions lost per game: 65th versus 7th
turnovers lost per game: 29th versus 41st
turnover margin per game: 38th versus 15th
Avg. percentile rating for this category: 42 to 29
Lastly, I calculated the average percentile rating for all the stats in all nine categories above. The 2018 result was 50 to 2017's 34. Average stats means the team has shown progress even if the record doesn't show it. GBR!
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On 11/19/2018 at 12:10 PM, jaws said:
I understand this is stats based but I think the selection committee should take the SEC to task for cupcake Saturday. Even if it is for one week, penalize them for that schedule. Everyone else is battling conference opponents and the SEC pulls this crap every year. I love to see Alabama play a conference game the week before they play Auburn.
I agree. What's worse is that we've made calculating strength of schedule too complicated. One of the first sites that comes up, when I search for SOS rankings for college football, has Alabama at #5!
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other
I haven't crunched the numbers yet this week but would be surprised to find that Auburn has better stats than LSU and Mississippi State (to list the top two wins Alabama had before last week's games). Michigan played one really good team all year, before last weekend, and they (Notre Dame) ran them off the field in the first half before going conservative in the second. Not every P5 conference has even two really good teams annually but we act like we can tell which P5 champ is better than another despite having virtually no games between P5 conference teams?
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16 minutes ago, knapplc said:
Hehe, there's some similarity to the IA-NE one in that I'd guess at least one of us doesn't think it exists. I'm cool with people having their own definitions for what a rivalry is but I'll argue with them or explain my side if they ask for it, directly or indirectly.
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24 minutes ago, Fru said:
I just wanted an excuse to post a Departed gif.
I can understand. I watched the Korean movie it's based on forever ago, too. That's some good stuff. Have you seen the Raid movies? The plots aren't as good but the action... Those guys clearly weren't insured.
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12 hours ago, Fru said:
I don't understand how "everyone" thinks they're making the joke I was making. BRB didn't put a period after his "No" response to me so I insinuated he was on it. It's one thing to not get a joke but getting it just enough to think you were set up for a zinger...is funny in and of itself, I guess?
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14 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:
That’s right. It’s not cut and dried and fit into a nice little definition like some want to make it out to be.
What color is the sky in your world? You're the one who was telling me I was wrong (highlighting what I posted and providing a negative, monosyllabic response). You're playing victim now? Please...
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1 hour ago, BigRedBuster said:
Statistically speaking, there is a significant amount of rivalries in sports where the two teams do not have the same amount of success.
Most people pronounce the word, forte, as "for-tay," despite the first pronunciation listed in the dictionary indicating it's like the word, "fort." The definition of a rivalry is obviously not so cut and dried.
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1 hour ago, 4skers89 said:
You think BRB is pregnant?
I’ll see myself out.
Actually, I was implying the opposite (that he was on it for being so cranky about someone not thinking the way he does). That's pretty close for me having someone get a joke I tried to make, though. It's not my strong suit.
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1 minute ago, BigRedBuster said:
No
The joke's on you. Had you answered with, "[n]ope," I'd have surely conceded. I'd say you were missing your period, maybe, but...
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25 minutes ago, Landlord said:
That doesn't answer the question. Unless you think that there is some rule where everyone is only allowed one rival.
I have no attachment to any of the programs you mentioned so I answered accordingly. Would it matter to you if some Northwestern fan thinks NU and Iowa are rivals? The answers I gave you also jived with what I had written about Nebraska and Oklahoma. Elite programs are just not going to have lots of rivals because a rival is going to be having comparable success and taking something meaningful from you on a regular basis to earn that level of recognition. p.s. - I don't think there are rules as to how many rivals a team has but I think a rivalry should be allowed to develop naturally and feel that calling any heated series a rivalry cheats the meaning of the term. Having one rival is pretty common besides. Look at Celtic and Rangers, Barcelona and Real Madrid, River Plate and Boca Juniors, Chivas and America, etc. To be fair, Chivas have a local rivalry/clasico with Atlas but the super clasico is with America. Liverpool might call Manchester United their rival but that doesn't mean the derby with Everton isn't special. I don't know that American football has the same kind of history, though, partly because there's not enough play outside the conferences.
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28 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:
Teams have multiple rivals.
I can accept that. I don't accept that all teams do.
29 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:This myth that a team only has one rival is just.......plain.......not so.
So, a myth...is....a....myth?
7 minutes ago, JJ Husker said:Funny thing is, typical Nebraska fan only wants to claim OU as a meaningful rival. But OU fan will tell you their biggest rival is Texas and it's been that way for a long time.
It doesn't change the fit for this "typical" Nebraska fan. The fact we don't play anymore is another story, of course. I brought them up to explain my concept of rivalry as it applies to the Nebraska football program.
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On 11/17/2018 at 10:09 PM, teachercd said:
Iowa is Nebraska's rival because Nebraska has sucked as of late.
That's what I was getting at too verbosely. It's settling to call them a rival. I'm stuck on teams having one rival, though. If we're going to say a team can have multiple rivals, well, that's just cheating the meaning of the word when you really have one... In my Husker-watching lifetime, there has really only been Oklahoma. Texas was "getting there" but that path ended abruptly.
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4 minutes ago, Landlord said:
Do you consider Michigan and Michigan State rivals? Oklahoma and Oklahoma State? Clemson and South Carolina?
It's my understanding that Michigan claims Ohio State and Oklahoma claims Texas. I don't know much about Clemson nor South Carolina.
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If it's a rivalry now, it's because we're not where we belong / have traditionally been. Oklahoma was our rival before as we had comparable achievements and kept finishing 1 and 2 in our conference...which allowed us to contend for an even greater prize fairly regularly. We had big stakes on the line with an equal and that made it more of a rivalry. I'd call Iowa an enemy at best (like Colorado used to be only without so much history, in terms of winning the conference).
Let's take Notre Dame as an example. USC is their rival but Michigan is their enemy.
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Here's the updated post after last week (which saw West Virginia drop out):
No SOS adjustment
With SOS adjustment
SOS Calc's/Rankings
p.s. - I accidentally left WV in there up above.
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To generate the percentile rankings, I'm considering only games played against P5 opponents now. That means the Colorado game counts toward NU's rankings but not Troy. I had been sharing stats from games between conference mates only in the recent past.
Pass D
completions per game: 20 (NU) to 79 (Iowa)
completion percentage: 77 to 68
yards per attempt: 63 to 83
touchdowns per game: 61 to 61
passer rating: 71 to 82
yards per game: 23 to 90
Pass O
completions per game: 69 to 44
completion percentage: 76 to 32
yards per attempt: 54 to 47
touchdowns per game: 39 to 75
passer rating: 57 to 52
yards per game: 63 to 50
Rush D
yards per game: 25 to 88
touchdowns per game: 8 to 88
yards per carry: 21 to 88
Rush O
yards per game: 84 to 28
touchdowns per game: 85 to 26
yards per carry: 91 to 29
Scoring D
touchdowns per game: 23 to 85
points per game: 20 to 89
Scoring O
touchdowns per game: 62 to 62
points per game: 60 to 64
Total D
yards per play: 37 to 91
yards per game: 18 to 95
plays per game: 8 to 90
Total O
yards per play: 83 to 35
yards per game: 87 to 32
plays per game: 72 to 39
Turnover Margin
fumbles gained per game: 69 to 20
interceptions gained per game: 57 to 99
turnovers gained per game: 66 to 91
fumbles lost per game: 4 to 47
interceptions lost per game: 67 to 55
turnovers lost per game: 26 to 52
turnover margin per game: 43 to 83
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I know they have computers do this but I'm pretty sure they're not doing such basic calculations as I am. If I just take the average of all the average category rankings from the nine categories I track for the undefeated and 1-loss teams in FBS that have a shot at the playoff (not looking at you, UCF), and then adjust for strength of schedule, these are your rankings:
Losses don't matter for this, as I was trying to indicate in my post title. This is all about stats and how they measure up against the entire sample from games played against P5 teams by P5 teams and Notre Dame. I only considered games against P5 teams such that Michigan's loss to ND isn't even in the mix (is the only BS part). Even without counting ND, though, Michigan still had the toughest SOS. I calculated SOS by averaging the average percentile ratings for all the opponents each of these teams faced (across the nine categories I share details for in the Husker Football forum on a weekly basis). The simple adjustment I did for SOS was take the average percentile rating for a team's stats times the ratio between their SOS and Michigan's.
Notre Dame had the second-best SOS per this method despite Michigan, Stanford, and Pittsburgh being the only teams with an average category percentile rating over 50 (which would be exactly average). LSU and Mississippi State are the only teams with above average ratings for Alabama. Maryland, Wisconsin, and Penn State were above average foes for Michigan.
The best win is ND's over Michigan. Second place is Clemson's over Syracuse (avg. category percentile rating of 63.28). Third is WSU's over Utah (avg. category percentile rating of 62.46).
Without any SOS adjustment, the rankings would be as follows:
Lastly, here are the SOS rankings:
p.s. - I am having trouble getting rid of this extra table I don't recall having inserted to begin with so here it stays...
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We need a priest in here for the way this thing is going <queue pedophile jokes> but Google told me there's no defined doctrine on the eternal fate of unbaptized infants and that limbo is (just) a theory.
I've never heard of holy water in wombs and Google didn't help me find anything via a quick search.
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I appreciate your trying to shine a light, TG. I certainly wasn't trying to make a case for not needing God at all up above. What I was talking to my kids about was believing in Him versus knowing He's there.
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2 hours ago, Landlord said:
I'd gladly pass up a miracle to make sure I get to heaven, and I'd gladly sacrifice myself for the guarantee of my child making it to heaven. If I believed in such things.
How are you making sure you get to heaven by passing up a miracle? I didn't follow that part. Sacrificing yourself is fine but it's still about faith and most people don't think they've got God's rules all figured out even if they believe in him. As a Catholic myself, I have never felt smart enough to understand the nuances of what we're supposed to believe. That's with a lot of Catholic school, including one theology class. I'm not saying the finer points couldn't be summed up well but I found more education muddied the waters further personally. I tell my kids we adults don't know anything for sure but that I believe due to my personal history. We should all pray for boring lives because you don't want to need His help.
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Just now, knapplc said:
It's hard to keep track of all of Ziggy's runs these days. The 66 yard run was in the 2nd quarter. This one, the 60-yarder, was in the 4th quarter.
Thanks, Knapp! I was out of town watching a kid's tournament games and haven't had time to watch. The folks at work just told me we were fortunate the Illini dropped a couple of punts or it'd have been tied at half...
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I thought I had read it was a 66-yard run but that was a fun video nonetheless.
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2 hours ago, Landlord said:
I'm entertaining a hyperbolic hypothetical.
If one truly believes:
• heaven and hell and the ability to decide which one you end up in
• children up to a certain age/maturity aren't held accountable
• most human beings who live on planet earth do not accept god's gift of salvation and end up in hell
What would be the reason not to abort babies, send them straight to heaven, and let them bypass the horrors of this world and even the chance that they could go to hell if they had lived in it?
You don't want the sin on you, the parents. Even some Christians still believe that good works don't make a difference as to where you're going (after death). Maybe some who do (believe that good works matter) also believe that heaven must be earned. This world, while clearly not God's kingdom, isn't just full of horrors either. Life's a miracle and it's a mistake to dwell too much on the resurrection. That's sort of paraphrased Bob Marley, though ("Get Up, Stand Up").
Chinander by the numbers
in Husker Football
Posted
Looking at one stat is so myopic that it makes a misnomer of this thread. UCF losing a couple of stars isn't all that changed between this season and the last. E.g., there were two other ranked teams in the American Athletic Conference last season at this time (and they went on to make the final AP poll as well). I assume the AAC still has a championship game, too. I went ahead and crunched the defensive numbers for the two seasons, despite the aforementioned differences. There's also the matter of the offensive differences playing a role but I'm going to leave that to the turnover margin only. The percentiles below are calculated from stats generated in conference games between conference teams only (through January 8th of this year for the 2017 season and through last weekend for this one).
Pass D
completions per game: 74 (now) versus 75 (then with EC)
percentage: 76 versus 63
yards per attempt: 88 to 16
touchdowns per game: 94 to 47
rating: 86 to 33
yards per game: 89 to 39
Rush D
yards per carry: 47 to 33
touchdowns per game: 79 to 72
yards per game: 20 to 41
Scoring D
touchdowns per game: 67 to 56
points per game: 83 to 56
Total D
yards per play: 67 to 31
yards per game: 26 to 12
plays per game: 45 to 48
Turnover Margin
fumbles gained per game: 60 to 53
interceptions gained per game: 18 to 85
turnovers gained per game: 29 to 81
fumbles lost per game: 93 to 65
interceptions lost per game: 33 to 90
turnovers lost per game: 72 to 89
turnover margin per game: 50 to 92
Both defenses have given up a lot of yards. EC's got a lot more picks. If you only look at TD's allowed per game, the difference in scoring defense is less dramatic. The current squad has some gaudy numbers against the pass and obviously limited big plays more.