Moiraine

If you scroll through this, they've been updating them periodically. http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/

Forgive me for not putting a lot of stock in what a bunch of men think about woman cards and anti-female slants when/if a misogynist, racist, bigot becomes president over the first female nominee.

I think Clinton will win Michigan, but if Trump wins Wisconsin this thing could end at 269-269 I think Trump has a better shot at Michigan. Most of the vote in Detroit is already in and Trump is still up by 4% there. Wisconsin will be tighter. Only 16% of Wayne County is in. Where did you hear most of Detroit is in?

I think Clinton will win Michigan, but if Trump wins Wisconsin this thing could end at 269-269

Huh?

Why? Nothing unexpected has really happened yet. I mean there were a bunch of dominoes that needed to fall for Trump. He's hit them all so far... and nearly pulled off the upset in a state he had a 10% chance to win... lost by 7000 votes in VA. VA's near loss is only relevant if it's a sign of things to come for the other states that matter (NH, NV, Michigan).

Why? Nothing unexpected has really happened yet. It may be that it's not looking good because Clinton is losing Wisconsin and Michigan. However it may also be because they now release this stuff county by county to get higher ratings.

If my math is right Clinton can't win Florida

I think I miscalculated. I think Clinton needs Virginia unless she can take North Carolina.

Updated snake map from 538: and an update on Virginia:

Looking good early. If Trump wins Virginia, Clinton has to have NH and NV (or get one of OH, NC, FL). (Barring another surprise loss by Clinton) Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida are not surprise losses.

He'll be up in the popular vote for awhile (even if he loses it in the end). California hasn't been counted.

Hilarious watching Florida flip flop every 3 seconds

I remember mock school elections (perhaps not quite so sophisticated) -- voting for Clinton over Dole (I think?), Bush over Gore, Bush over Kerry. Decent Americans all, so there was a real sense of who cares, let's have fun, and let's see who wins in our school. It horrifies me that there's a generation growing up for whom this game features Donald Trump. I did mock elections too but it was in 3rd grade. Must've been 1992. I think all U.S. high school students should be required to take 2 semesters of American Government, and also more world history. I learned about the pilgrims and Nebraska history and the revolutionary and civil wars for about 8 years straight.

Neither of those are in Clinton's "firewall." She's actually expected to lose Ohio. If she loses NH AND OH AND NC AND FL AND NV then she's in trouble.

I'd argue he isn't attracted to Carly Fiorina. And yet, he made fun of her face in a nationally televised debate. Ummmm Rosie O'Donnell? Well, Rosie and Carly go through the first filter and wind up in a different category -> people who have wronged Trump. So I'd say 3 categories: 1) Women who have wronged Trump 2) Women Trump is attracted to 3) Women Trump is not attracted to and who have not wronged him

If you think describingan outfit will get you banned, you're confused.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/796102093727793152 What a f'ing a-hole. I guess his fingers are too short and fat to type "county" correctly.

Good one. So how long do you think it will take us to know the projected winner? 10 eastern or will this drag out like Ohio did between Kerry/GWB and hopefully not a Florida in 2000. I'm thinking 10 eastern - Iowa & Nevada will be closed at that time and those are both important states. Granted it takes a while to tally the vote but someone may try to be first to announce based on exit polls. Now if Clinton takes NC, Florida it will be over much sooner. Reality is Trump needs both of those states. As fate would have it, I teach a class tonight so I won't be watching the returns as they come in. So enjoy the show Will depend a lot on how close New Hampshire is. If NH is decided early and Clinton doesn't lose any of her other leads, it might not take long.

It's hard to remember 4 years back. But if exit polls show a big enough gap they'll announce before the votes are counted. If it's close they'll wait for actual results from counties. IIRC we knew Obama won pretty early. Maybe 10pm central? Seems this race is gonna be closer though.

"We need to fix our borders" Nevermind the fact that illegal immigration is at a steady decrease.

I think Trump respects the women he's not attracted to. I've known men who put women in two different categories and treat them completely differently.