CFN Prediction

[The Maudfather]

Here’s The Deal: Nebraska will begin the season with the knowledge that it hasn’t won a conference title since 1999, too long for a program of this stature. Having completed the transition to the Big Ten with mixed reviews, the Huskers are hopeful that they’re better positioned to compete in the Legends Division and beyond. This is Year 5 for head coach Bo Pelini, who has yet to win fewer than nine games in a season … or completely dispel the notion that his program is caught in neutral. It’ll also be a pivotal campaign for junior QB Taylor Martinez, the throwback to the options days in Lincoln who spent much of the offseason attempting to clean up his throwing motion. A year after winning a school-best 12 games, Southern Miss will look to climb back up the mountain without head coach Larry Fedora or QB Austin Davis. Former South Carolina defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson is the new man in charge, but is taking his time to name Davis’ successor. Still in the mix is rookie Anthony Alford, the most heralded recruit to choose Hattiesburg in years.

 

Why Southern Miss Might Win: Facing uncertainty behind center, the Golden Eagles will be content to run right at a Nebraska front seven looking to replace a few of last season’s key parts. Southern Miss has the kind of depth in the backfield that’ll maintain fresh legs, especially during the hottest month of the season. Desmond Johnson, Kendrick Hardy and Jeremy Hester have all gotten meaningful carries as members of the program. Plus, they’ll be operating behind a tough, Jason Weaver-led line that returns four starters. Never a slouch on defense, bandit Jamie Collins and defensive backs Deron Wilson and Jacorius Cotton will make Martinez pay if he hasn’t taken the promised step forward as a complete player.

 

Why Nebraska Might Win: Southern Miss will have a tougher than normal time stopping the run in 2012, a by-product of some key losses in the front seven. The Huskers should be able to capitalize with the help of Martinez and backfield mate Rex Burkhead, one of the nation’s top backs. Nebraska will lean heavily on the ground game, getting daylight from a blue-collar O-line that boasts G Spencer Long as its most skilled blocker. Sure, the Eagles should have some success running the ball, but the lack of a proven threat in the passing game will allow the Huskers to stack the box with the likes of LB Will Compton and S Daimion Stafford. A packed house at Memorial Stadium is no place for a quarterback to make his starting debut.

 

What To Watch Out For: If Martinez is going to showcase his improved arm, he’ll do so with lots of help from top receiver Kenny Bell. And if Bell is going to build on his impressive debut in Lincoln, he’ll have to shake Southern Miss CB Deron Wilson. Wilson is one of Conference USA’s top pass defenders, the kind of ball-hawk who is already drawing interest from NFL scouts. When Bell is being blanketed, Martinez might want to consider Kyler Reed, the athletic tight end itching to rebound from an injury-plagued junior year.

 

What Will Happen: Southern Miss will face a tough transition in Johnson’s first year, especially on the offensive side of the ball. A one-note attack isn’t going to work on the road versus a stout Nebraska defense. As the Eagles struggle on third downs, the Huskers will keep the chains moving with the constant running of Burkhead and Martinez. Nebraska will be more effective than polished in Week 1, keeping USM at a safe distance throughout.

 

CFN Prediction: Nebraska 30 … Southern Miss 13

ATS Consultants Line Nebraska -20; O/U: 53

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