First year comparisons FWIW

[drfish]

Was curious about point differentials of the last three coaches. (Scores from Wikipedia. Note: the scores for 2014 on three losses are switched.)

 

Callahan 1st year

 

Average point differential all games: -1.9/game

Average differential in losses (7): -18.3/game

 

His last year:

 

All games: -4.5/game

Losses (7) -22.8/game

 

Pelini 1st year

 

All games + 4.4/game

Losses - 20/game

 

His last year:

 

All games +11/game

Losses (4) -11.7/game

 

Riley 1st year.

 

All games. +5/game

Losses (7) -2.3/ game

 

Note: Callahan changeover was the most significant in terms of offense. Pelini's first year the offensive plan and terminology didn't change much, only the defense. Riley's offense shares a lot more with the previous one than BC's did as well, plus he had more tools that fit (e.g., the WR corps) than BC did. The Defensive changeover from Pelini to Riley was the more significant changeover. Also, this analysis is limited by the fact that I made no attempt to account for quality of competition.

 

 

Obviously, the stat that is most important is the W-L stat, but from a point differential analysis, there is, I think, something to be optimistic in terms of the chances for next year to be significantly better in the win loss category. I am hoping that a year in the system will make a big difference in overall performance, though as can be seen from the Callahan numbers, more experience in the system is far from a guarantee. You still have to be able to coach. I would expect a jump in overall defensive performance probably led by better pass efficiency defense numbers and probably not quite as good overall rush defense. 9th in yards per game, but around 23rd in yards per attempt. Then again who needs to run a lot against a defense that makes every QB look good. I expect rush yd per game up but yards per attempt may be down a bit (hopefully). Offense, I expect a mild improvement.

 

[Sargon]

Great post thanks doc

 

According to teamrankings.com here are the SOS's. So, give a bit of extra credit to the 07 and 08 performances and the rest are pretty close but it's another strike against '04.

 

04.....61/117

07.....23/120

08.....25/120

14.....41/128

15.....50/128

[drfish]

'04 probably had the biggest overall transition with a change not only in technique and terminology on offense, but also a radically different set of skills needed and fewer personnel adaptable to the system, plus a transition of the defense.

 

'08 was the smallest change with no significant change in offense, and nowhere to go but up on defense. I am not trying to minimize what BP did in the first year, cause that defense got substantially better, especially as the year went on.

 

'15 had a total changeover on both sides of the ball, but players much better suited to the new system than in '04. The defense was a major change in philosophy, though. Even though the results were disappointing from a win loss standpoint, there were no blowouts. What I take from that is that the degree of improvement needed to significantly improve the record should be possible. At least there was no 70-10 debacle. Purdue was a debacle, don't get me wrong.

[HuskerExpat]

Great post. Thanks for the work. Interesting numbers....