B1G Week 7

[Mavric]

Even at 46%, that's less than a 50/50 chance. The chance of missing both two point tries is (1-.46)*(1-.46)=0.29. That's a 29% chance of losing without even giving your team a chance in overtime.

But you'd have a 46% chance of winning without needing overtime. Which seems higher than 29%.

And that would leave a 25% chance of ending up in the same spot. And, if you call overtime 50/50, would mean you'd have a 58% chance of winning and 42% chance of losing. Which is better than the 50/50 of overtime.

 

[RedDenver]

But you'd have a 46% chance of winning without needing overtime. Which seems higher than 29%.

And that would leave a 25% chance of ending up in the same spot. And, if you call overtime 50/50, would mean you'd have a 58% chance of winning and 42% chance of losing. Which is better than the 50/50 of overtime.

Good points. So it's not as simple as I thought. It'll depend on what the other team does.

Damnit, now I'm going to have to figure out the game theory combinations when I have some time.