B1G Week 7

RedDenver said:
Even at 46%, that's less than a 50/50 chance. The chance of missing both two point tries is (1-.46)*(1-.46)=0.29. That's a 29% chance of losing without even giving your team a chance in overtime.
Click to expand...

But you'd have a 46% chance of winning without needing overtime. Which seems higher than 29%.

And that would leave a 25% chance of ending up in the same spot. And, if you call overtime 50/50, would mean you'd have a 58% chance of winning and 42% chance of losing. Which is better than the 50/50 of overtime.
 
Mavric said:
But you'd have a 46% chance of winning without needing overtime. Which seems higher than 29%.

And that would leave a 25% chance of ending up in the same spot. And, if you call overtime 50/50, would mean you'd have a 58% chance of winning and 42% chance of losing. Which is better than the 50/50 of overtime.
Click to expand...
Good points. So it's not as simple as I thought. It'll depend on what the other team does.

Damnit, now I'm going to have to figure out the game theory combinations when I have some time.
 
Following up on the previous 2-pt discussion (cc @Mavric )

Scenario: Team A trails by 17 and scores a TD with about 8 minutes left in regulation​

Assumptions​

  • overtime is 50/50 for who wins
  • 46% 2-pt conversion success probability
  • kicking the XP is 100% since the probability of missing is very small (do not consider missed XP)
  • neither team gets an extra possession
    • equal chances for a turnover for either team cancels out (not considered)
    • probability of recovering an onside kick is negligible (not considered)
  • overtime results are not affected by what happens in regulation
    • equal chances for an injury on either team cancels out
  • Team A has exactly 2 possessions left
  • Team B only kicks XPs

Team A outcomes​

  • kicks XP (100%) to be down 10 points
  • makes 2-pt conversion (46%) to be down 9 points
  • misses 2-pt conversion (54%) to be down 11 points

Team B Outcomes​

  • scores 1 TD
  • scores 2 TDs
  • scores 1 TD and 1 FG
  • kicks 1 FG
  • kicks 2 FGs
  • does not score

Scenarios​

  • Team A kicks XP (100%) to be down 10 points
    • Team B scores 1 TD to be up by 17 points (Team B wins)
    • Team B scores 2 TDs to be up by 24 points (Team B wins)
    • Team B scores 1 TD and 1 FG to be up by 20 points (Team B wins)
    • Team B kicks 1 FG to be up by 13 points
      • Team A must score 2 TDs to win
    • Team B kicks 2 FGs to be up by 16 points
      • Team A must score 2 TDs and get 2 2-pt conversions to get to overtime
    • Team B does not score to be up by 10 points
      • Team A can score a TD and FG to get to overtime or score 2 TDs to win
  • Team A makes 2-pt conversion (46%) to be down 9 points
    • Team B scores 1 TD to be up by 16 points
      • Team A must score 2 TDs and get 2 2-pt conversions to get to overtime
    • Team B scores 2 TDs to be up by 23 points (Team B wins)
    • Team B scores 1 TD and 1 FG to be up by 19 points (Team B wins)
    • Team B kicks 1 FG to be up by 12 points
      • Team A must score 2 TDs to win
    • Team B kicks 2 FGs to be up by 15 points
      • Team A must score 2 TDs and 1 2-pt conversion and 1 XP to get to overtime
    • Team B does not score to be up by 9 points
      • Team A can score 1 TD and 1 FG to win or 2 TDs to win
  • Team A misses 2-pt conversion (54%) to be down 11 points
    • Team B scores 1 TD to be up by 18 points (Team B wins)
    • Team B scores 2 TDs to be up by 25 points (Team B wins)
    • Team B scores 1 TD and 1 FG to be up by 21 points (Team B wins)
    • Team B kicks 1 FG to be up by 14 points
      • Team A must score 2 TDs to get to overtime
    • Team B kicks 2 FGs to be up by 17 points (Team B wins)
    • Team B does not score to be up by 11 points
      • Team A must score 1 FG and 1 TD and 1 2-pt conversion to get to overtime or 2 TDs to win

Results​

  • Team B wins in all scenarios when they score 2 TDs or 1 TD and 1 FG
  • Team A must score at least 1 TD and 1 FG or they lose
  • Team B kicking 1 FG: going for 2 hurts chances of winning
    • XP then 2 TDs
      • win: 100%
    • 2-pt then 2 TDs:
      • win: 46%
      • overtime: 54%
  • Team B kicking 2 FGs: going for 2 very slightly hurts chances of winning
    • XP then 2 TDs
      • lose: 71%
      • overtime: 29%
    • 2-pt then 2 TDs:
      • lose: 54% + 21% = 76%
      • overtime: 24%
  • Team B scoring 1 TD: going for 2 slightly improves chances of winning
    • XP
      • lose: 100%
    • 2-pt
      • overtime: 10%
      • lose: 90%
  • Team B not scoring: going for 2 improves chances of winning
    • XP:
      • overtime: 100%
    • 2-pt:
      • win: 46%
      • lose: 29%
      • overtime: 25%

Conclusions​

The only meaningful results are when Team B does not score or only scores 1 FG. In practice, there's no real way of being able to predict that the other team will score a FG and not a TD (or some other combination of scoring), so as best I can tell, I was wrong and going for 2 is the best approach here. It may also give the strategic advantage that Team A knows:
  1. they need to play to hold Team B to no points and not worry about playing safe on defense
  2. they know if they need to go for 2 again on later TDs
Edit to add: when the 2-pt success rate drops below 38.2%, then kicking the XP becomes the better strategy given these assumptions and only considering when Team B does not score.
 
Last edited:
RedDenver said:
Following up on the previous 2-pt discussion (cc @Mavric )

Conclusions​

The only meaningful results are when Team B does not score or only scores 1 FG. In practice, there's no real way of being able to predict that the other team will score a FG and not a TD (or some other combination of scoring), so as best I can tell, I was wrong and going for 2 is the best approach here. It may also give the strategic advantage that Team A knows:
  1. they need to play to hold Team B to no points and not worry about playing safe on defense
  2. they know if they need to go for 2 again on later TDs
Edit to add: when the 2-pt success rate drops below 38.2%, then kicking the XP becomes the better strategy given these assumptions and only considering when Team B does not score.
Click to expand...

Props for all the math.

I think the assumption is usually that you're going to keep the other team from scoring - that's why it's usually suggested that you not go for two until the 4th-quarter-ish so you have more insight into how the game is going to play out. I've usually seen it as "when you score a TD to get within eight, you should go for two," implying that, if successful and you get a stop, you only have to kick the PAT the next time to get ahead/win. That's why I missed it in this case because Michigan was farther behind. I think the math is probably the same going farther out but, as you pointed out, the variables get ugly in a hurry so it's best to wait until later in the game to reduce variables.
 
Mavric said:
Props for all the math.

I think the assumption is usually that you're going to keep the other team from scoring - that's why it's usually suggested that you not go for two until the 4th-quarter-ish so you have more insight into how the game is going to play out. I've usually seen it as "when you score a TD to get within eight, you should go for two," implying that, if successful and you get a stop, you only have to kick the PAT the next time to get ahead/win. That's why I missed it in this case because Michigan was farther behind. I think the math is probably the same going farther out but, as you pointed out, the variables get ugly in a hurry so it's best to wait until later in the game to reduce variables.
Click to expand...
Yep. Once the number of possessions gets larger (probably 4 or more), there are so many possible scenarios that it comes down to the simple math of the expected points without context of 0.46*2=0.92, which is less than 1.

If I'm feeling ambitious, I might write some code to calculate the probabilities for more possessions.
 
Last edited:
Mavric said:
Somebody help me out:

Michigan scored a TD to get the score to 24-13 = down by 11 (9:17 to play in the game). Then they go for two (and don't get it).

Why do you want so badly to be down 9 instead of down 10? So a TD (+PAT) and FG will win it?
Click to expand...
Moore gave up and wanted to practice a 2 point conversation. :cool: The only reason I can think of.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top