This is what I see happening:
I find it hard to believe that the committee will leave out a 13-1 B1G champ in favor of an SEC team that didn't even go to the SEC CCG (so one of the mississipi teams). Remember that the conference championships are a factor in the selection process. FSU will not survive this season undefeated. They will probably lose to ND, but then ND will have a legit shot to get in unless they lose to USC or ASU. NW beating ND would help us tremendously. PAC12 champ gets in
SEC champ gets in
big XII "champ" probably gets in, hopefully baylor wins out.
then its between ND, B1G, ACC, and another SEC team.
IMO any B1G team that runs the table and goes 13-1 with a championship can only be left out for an undefeated ND or maybe 1-loss FSU champion, unless by some miracle your name is minnesota. The OSU MSU showdown will hopefully be against two top 10 teams which gives the winner a big boost and would give us a big boost assuming we won the CCG.
Still a LOT of football to be played though.