J-MAGIC

2 hours ago, runningblind said:

I get that, but we aren't Ohio State and never will be. Using the same model without the same talent isn't going to work. 

If that comes to fruition and the rest of the offense is working well, running the QB more is a viable option sometimes but can't be the main source of the offense.  All I am saying is running the QB a bunch in the state we've been in where defenses don't respect anything is a bad idea.  It can't be the main yardage source, which if we went back down Hilltops list it would be crystal clear it wasn't for those teams either, especially Ohio State.

This is completely asinine. QB run is often a tool less talented teams can leverage over teams with a talent advantage, which is why every service academy runs the flexbone and K-State manages to win seven games every year, and it "won conference titles" in the past and still is now. It was also the thing our offense was best at last year. You don't want it to be your main thing because you don't want your quarterback to take that many hits, but it has been a very important part of every successful offense SF has been involved with and will be a big part of any success we have. Just admit you said something dumb and stop digging the hole deeper.

16 hours ago, deedsker said:

No Ramsey, no chance. Dude delivered B1G knowledge, production, and experience that Hunter and Hilinski (sp?) can't offer. They will need to rebuild around one of those guys in 2021 to be a challenger again in 2022 or 2023 depending on the defense.

I'm sure now that I've said that they'll go like 11-1 or something but next year seems like one of their reload years to me.

13 hours ago, runningblind said:

I don't care about QBs running, that will never win the conference and will just end up with injuries.  Scrambles and 3 or 4 change of pace draws to slides a game I can handle. But if we run any QB 10+ times a game any more that is not a sustainable winning scenario in my opinion.  RBs should be taking the bulk of carries and I want the QB upright making throws.

Do you know how the option works?

What is the reasoning for Northwestern being above us (or even high in the West), other that Fitzgerald gives them a high floor? They lose a ton of production from their roster, will be breaking in a new QB, lost their long-time defensive coordinator, and got extremely lucky in close games last year. I think they might just suck next year.

I subscribe to The Athletic for their Cubs writers so I read Sherman's stuff every once in a while, and I wish they would hire someone better than Sherman to cover us. He does nothing but hunt clicks with inflammatory/low-brow controversy stuff. Ideally The Athletic's subscriber structure would make it the one place where you wouldn't have to be worried about how many people are reading your article and could instead just make good, interesting stuff people want to read. 

2 hours ago, NUance said:

Another thing to think about here is that, when a recruit arrives on campus he's probably not going to contribute for a couple or three years regardless of how talented he is.  It's rare that a true frosh gets significant playing time. (With some notable exceptions.  Like Wan'dale.) 

 

The lag in contributing means that whoever did the recruiting 2 to 3 years before largely determines the talent level on the field.  Riley pulled in some good recruits.  But most of his best recruits left when he did.  The cupboard was pretty bare for Frost's first couple of years.   But that excuse has pretty much expired now that we're headed into Frost year 4.  

Right. People are mad at Frost for "missing" on recruits who were redshirt freshman and sophomores last year who didn't have a spring. It's essentially being mad that a bare cupboard didn't get immediately replenished, which is nothing but impatience and a lack of understanding of how good college football programs work. Iowa and Wisconsin are good because when they have a contributor graduate or go pro, they've got another three-star redshirt junior at his position they've been cooking for four years ready to step in and play. That wasn't happening under Riley in the first place, and then everyone from one class transferred when Frost got the job. It's not really going to be an excuse going forward, but a lot of our problems are affected by not having any depth and that's not really on the new coach.

On 5/8/2021 at 11:55 AM, The Scarlet Pimpernel said:

 

Like McCaffrey, I don't think Smothers has the arm strength. That's something that should have been apparent to Verduzco when he was recruiting him. 

McKenzie Milton looks like he can barely throw the ball 40 yards and was awesome in this offense. We haven't seen any of these guys take a game snap. People need to pump the brakes.

13 hours ago, Mavric said:

 

I think way to much is made of this because people don't like the results.  It is way more about having the athletes to run the offense than it is about changing what type of offense is run.  Our offense is not that much different than what Ohio State runs.  Are they having to adjust to the B1G?  Our offense isn't a lot different than what Penn State runs (though it wasn't as effective last year).  Are they having to adjust to the B1G?  Our offense isn't a lot different than what Indiana, Purdue, or Minnesota run.  They are pretty competitive in the B1G.

 

The problem isn't that the offense won't work in the B1G.  It has been shown that it will work.  Other teams have shown that it will work.  We were a very respectable #25 in the country in total offense in Frost's first year here - when he still had enough Pelini recruits left to field a legitimate B1G offense.  We should have been absolutely terrible that first year before he could adjust anything if the problem was he needed to adjust to the B1G.

 

The problem is we didn't recruit one complete set of offensive players in a four-year span.  We only recruited two WRs that contributed in a five-year span.  We only recruited one serviceable RB in a four-year span.  We only recruited three legitimate OL in a four-year span (maybe four if Sichterman pans out) and one of those started out as a TE.  You simply can't strike out that much and expect to field a legitimate Power 5 offense.

 

Frost does carry a little bit of the blame for not turning it around a little faster but he was hindered by some bad luck (or whatever you want to call it).  He managed to pull two RBs who were legitimate talents in two weeks in Washington and Bell but both turned out to be head cases.  Then it definitely hurt that he struck out on WRs in his first full class.  The rest of his first full class looks to be filling in nicely, it's just taken them awhile to get on the field.  Wan'Dale was a legitimate WR but he clan wasn't patient enough for the rest of the offense to catch up.  Johnson and Thompkins still have possibilities at RB.  Piper and Benhart were already starters last year and Banks looks to be in the mix this year.  Plus McCaffrety was a great chance to take on the heels of Martinez.  But all of those guys were only into their second year here last year and didn't get anything resembling a normal off-season.  That's basically as many contributors out of one class - in two years here - as we got out of the previous four combined.

 

Frost had to change his offense because of the personnel he had.  UCF led the nation in deep throws in 2017.  That's been severely lacking the last two years because we haven't had the receivers to make it work.  And when you aren't a threat to throw it down the field, there's not much room to open up everything else.

 

So Frost definitely has adjusted his offense.  But not because of the B1G.  Hopefully it's back closer to what it's supposed to look like this year.

I don't understand the "this offense doesn't work in the Big Ten" stuff. It's already proven it has; his first year when he two good receivers and a good back and an experienced line the offense was ranked top 25 nationally and moved the ball on a lot of good defenses (with a true freshman QB). There have needed to be some tweaks as any good coach would make to a new situation, but the offense's lack of success the past couple years has been far more about not having skill position players who would start at many other B1G schools than it has about any sort of scheme or player archetype.

And you need all sorts of backs and receivers who are good at different things to be a successful offense. Bigger receivers were a glaring need so they've been the priority, but we're also still recruiting a lot of small fast-as-hell type of guys.

2 hours ago, gossamorharpy said:

This take seems to be a bit unfair to other teams who have beaten us, consistently, in recent years.

 

You're telling me iowa emabrassing us for 6 years straight after Thanksgiving is all due to our incompetence and nothing to do with them?  The fact that they've placed far more players in the NFL, a pretty strong correlation of team success in college, than we have has nothing do with this drought against them?  

 

You're telling me Northwestern, who continually plays sound football against everyone most years, and has gotten the better end of the deal against us is because of self inflicted wounds and nothing they do?  I guess them having stud OL drafted in the 1st round is really meaningless, meanwhile we're celebrating finally having an O line drafted in the 5th round- naw us losing close games has nothing to do with them rather what we didnt do.

 

You're telling me Wisconsin, who does the same thing year and year out, yet we're unable to overcome it, year in and year out, is because we shoot ourselves in the foot and nothing they do?

 

You're also telling me that we've out recruited other teams- yet fail to acknowledge that many of our top recruits have left for various reasons, still means we have a talent advantage?  

 

You're telling me minnesota running right over us, in consecutive years has nothing do with them having stud at RB and a better defined identity, rather, we just didnt show up and theyre lucky we didnt run up 50 on them?

 

I think there's a fine balance between controlling what you can control and taking ownership at the self inflicted pitfalls, which there are many... but to say that other progrums in the west in particular dont deserve credit for kicking our a$$ these past 5 years is just disrespectful and goes right back to our s#!tty perception in this conference that we think we're better than most and holding on to the glory days.

 

Frankly, im over the whole they're lucky we shoot ourselves in the foot take- its a f'n weak a$$ excuse that belittles the teams that have consistently beaten us.  At some point you look in the mirror and have to realize, maybe its not just us shooting ourselves in the foot is to blame- rather we've been a progrum devoid of game changing talent for quite some time now and other progrums are simply putting better products on the field year in and year out.

People who think the West is bad are basing that on historical assumptions and narratives and not how good the programs currently are. The West was the fourth-toughest division in football last year behind only the two SEC divisions and the B1G East. Wisconsin, Iowa, and Northwestern are in the midst of the best five-year eras in their programs' histories. Purdue and Minnesota have nationally renowned coaches. Illinois had a guy who took the Bears to a Super Bowl.

Nebraska is the best HISTORIC program in this division and long-term we shouldn't be consistently losing to anyone in this division, but right now this also isn't the Darrell Hazel-Bill Cubit-Gary Anderson-Tracy Claeys version of this division either. These are good coaches hitting these programs' ceilings at the same time while we're picking ourselves up off the program's floor. It won't be like this forever.

2 hours ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

We were 7th nationally in Completions/Attempt and 89th nationally in Passing Yards/Attempt. Downfield passing is a legitimate gripe for this team. It needs to get better. 

Passing yards/attempt says very little about if you're actually pushing the ball down the field because it doesn't differentiate between air yards and run after catch. If Team A and Team B both throw a two-yard drag route, but Team A has Travis Etienne and Amari Rodgers catching it and Team B has Wandale Robinson and Kade Warner catching it, Team A's yard per attempt is going to be a hell of a lot higher than Team B's and neither quarterback will have pushed the ball down the field further than the other. The stat that would illustrate your point is ADOT (Average Depth of Target). I'd look it up but I don't have my PFF account anymore.

Absolute worst memes in this fanbase, ranked:

1. "Adrian only throws short passes!"

2. "P.J. Fleck beat us with a team of backups!"

3. "Why won't Frost give up playcalling duties to work with special teams?"

3 hours ago, Husker in WI said:

Too high: 

• Georgia - they're top ten for sure, but #2?
• Wisconsin - 12 is betting heavily on massive offensive improvement. I don't think their receivers are good enough, and the running game will need Berger to stay healthy or a true freshman to be a stud immediately. Defense makes them top-20 without a doubt, 12 is a little rich for me.
• Penn State - I know last year was weird and they won their last 4, but I don't see it.
• Miami/Texas - pretty much what used to happen to us, getting ranked too high because of the name.

Agree on Wisconsin, Texas and Georgia, though the Dawgs are probably going to have their best offense under Smart with a legit NFL first-round QB. Penn State was more a victim of close game luck last year than a significant regression in play and has been stockpiling and developing talent as well as anyone in the Big Ten not named Ohio State for the last five years, and Miami returns a ton from a very good team last year. 

11 hours ago, Farms said:

Did Jackson Hannah play at all in the spring game? Also the running back room is crowded with young guys but the competition seems to be wide open still so I hope they all stick around.  Rahmir is probably the only one that’s maybe been passed up that I could see leaving. Lynn or Fritzsche are still young but neither has an easy path to playing time as far as lineman.. 

 

 

 

Yes, Hannah made the tackle on Scott's long run. I actually thought I had heard positive stuff about him this spring.

1 hour ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

I think Adrian will be unleashed for his last season here, and he's going to have some great running games. For the team to be successful, he needs to complete 60 - 65% of his passes and cut the interceptions at least in half. I think that's totally doable, especially in Frost's ball control offense which uses a lot of high completion short passes. 

 

But it's the classic college system skillset, and I don't think it translates to the NFL at all.  Whether a straight up pocket passer or one of the new mobile QBs, you can't be missing the throws Adrian still misses. Even if it's windy. 

He completed 71 percent of his passes last year and threw three interceptions in 151 attempts, which is an above average rate (two of which were in the last game; he had 1 INT in 123 attempts before that, which is really good). Say whatever you will about him, but completing a high number of passes and throwing a bunch of picks haven't really been his problems at NU.

Adrian absolutely checks every physical box to be drafted. The things that will keep him from being drafted are accuracy, quick decision making (especially diagnosing stuff pre-snap), fumbles, and his injury history. If he can show improvement on those I think he can have a big season and get picked in the draft. Wilson from BYU had a similar arc: showed talent as a freshman before injury/inconsistency/surrounding cast set him back and then he put it all together for a big last year (I am not saying he goes as high as Wilson lol don't start that)

28 minutes ago, ColoradoHusk said:

The deep pass to Manning was with the wind.  I knew people would complain that it was "underthrown".  It might have been underthrown by a couple yards, but I think it's harder to throw deep passes with the wind as it's easier for the ball to sail on the QB and overthrow the receiver.  That pass was as pretty accurate as a pass can be going 40-50 yards in the air.

Yeah I wasn't trying to roast him or anything; it was a good throw. Zach Wilson just went No. 2 in the NFL draft and underthrew stuff to ball-winners all the time. Sometimes it's an effective strategy.

Considering the wind I thought he had a pretty great day throwing the ball. That out route from the opposite hash to Martin was some NFL stuff.

I honestly don't understand why some of you watch or care about this team if you're determined to be negative all the time. Has to be a miserable way to be a sports fan, but to each his own.

Very little to take away from this game but I thought it was mostly good signs. The starting defense shut down the backup offense, the starting offensive line moved people, running backs looked good, seem to have more receiving weapons, Smothers and Haarberg each had a couple good moments. Not going to get upset about QBs not having perfect ball placement in 30 mph winds because I'm not an insane person.

9 hours ago, TheBugeater said:

Green jersey AM hype is funny.

 

1. 0% chance he ever plays in the NFL.

2. He’s not a 4.4 guy. There have been 7 college quarterbacks in the past 30 yrs that have ever been timed under 4.5.

 

Bottom-line. Don’t care about the yards or the completion percentage. AM is 1-13 vs Wiscy, Iowa, NW, OSU, Mich, Col. In 29 career starts, he has beaten 1 team with a winning record.

 

He is who he is. He’s a great kid, and he might be a little better this coming year, but he’s not gonna win ya a lot of big games. 

As we all know, the NFL selects quarterbacks on what their career college records are.

37 minutes ago, Savage Husker said:

That deep ball was under thrown. Manning had to slow down and then because the DB was able to recover, Manning tried catching and running too soon, thus not looking the ball in and dropping it. 
 

It was a great a pass which should have been caught. It would have been a perfect pass had he lead him. 

Was that throw with or against the wind? With the wind that's underthrown but into the wind that's some really impressive stuff.

29 minutes ago, caveman99 said:

That isn't getting "steamrolled." Getting steamrolled means that you weren't competitive, which NU has been with Iowa under Frost. You categorized this a solid L and not a toss up, but the past evidence points to this game being a toss up or Iowa being a slight favorite. 

"Steamrolled" did not refer to the final score but to what Iowa did to us when they needed to make plays to win in all three games. I categorized it as a "likely L" based on the totality of both team's past seasons (not one game) and what our preseason rankings are from a variety of sources. Iowa is a bigger favorite against us by FPI than we are against Buffalo, but everyone here calls Buffalo a "Solid W" so I don't see how Iowa is then a "Toss-Up" unless we're really pulling the wool over our own eyes. I'd love to be wrong.

EDIT: I said it was a "very likely L". Of the four I feel its the most winnable but I'd categorize it as a likely L.

11 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

Had to convert 3rd & 1 and 4th & 8 and averaged about 5 yards per play on that drive.  Credit them for making the plays but that's hardly just "steamrolling" down the field on us.  You make it sound like they could just score at will.

 

 

For some reason you highlight that we didn't score on our final five drives but don't point out that Iowa only got three first downs in the entire second half.  Saying they weren't trying is a pretty lame way to try to prove your point.

 

 

Were they the better team?  Probably.  We out-yarded them overall.  We had a better conversion rate on 3rd down.  We had more passing yards and a better yards per attempt.  We had more rushing yards and a better yards per attempt.  I don't know why you're insisting on exaggerating what Iowa did and deflect away from what we did.  

 

They have really only been the better team because they've made fewer mistakes.  Which is a big part of winning football games.  But they aren't nearly as much better as you're trying to make them out to be.

Iowa has been notorious under Ferentz for getting a lead and then packing it in and getting hyperconservative. That's their whole thing. Steamrolled was a poor choice of words, but when they have needed a stop or a drive against us in all three games, they have executed and delivered and we have not. I think that would indicate that they have been the better team. If you disagree, that's fine.

12 minutes ago, Ulty said:

I'm as disillusioned and pessimistic as anyone after 4 straight losing seasons and never rising to the hype, but the truth is we have rarely gotten steamrolled. A large part of the frustration is that we have had so many close losses every year where we just couldn't close the deal. 12 of our 20 losses under Frost have been by 8 points or less. Those are all games that could have been decided by a single play. 

 

It's not a matter of getting "steamrolled" by Iowa or Wisconsin or any of the other crappy teams that we should have beaten. It's about fixing mistakes and getting our $h!t together.  

 "Steamrolled" was a poor choice of words, but I didn't mean it to suggest that we lost by a large margin. My post was saying that when stuff got serious in each game we've played against Iowa or Wisconsin, they executed and made winning plays and we didn't. 

1 hour ago, caveman99 said:

I guess you and I watched completely different games against Iowa the past 3 seasons then. In 2018 NU outscored Iowa 15-3 in the 4th quarter, total yards gained were in Iowa's favor by only 19 yards (400-419), and it took a FG as time expired for Iowa to win. If Iowa doesn't make that FG, all momentum was on NU's side and I firmly believe OT would have went our way. In 2019 NU outgained Iowa by 40 yards (324-284), scored 14 unanswered in the 3rd quarter to tie the game and both teams played to a stalemate in the 4th until Iowa kicked a game winning long 48 yard FG with :01 left to win. Last year NU outgained Iowa by 16 yards (338-322), the score was tied after 3 quarters, Iowa kicked two FG's in the 4th (the last one coming with 8:21 left) to go up 6 points, and NU had a couple of drives past mid field in the 4th and looked like they had a legit chance to win until a missed block gave a free unseen shot on 2AM; last year's game was in doubt right up to the end and I am betting Iowa fans felt the same way until that last hit/fumble on 2AM. 

 

 

2018: Game tied with three minutes and change left. Give up a big return and Iowa runs the ball five times and completes one pass to get in field goal range.

2019: Tie the game at the end of the third. Proceed to not score on our final five drives. Last drive of regulation give up a 22 yard pass on third and 10 and then another 22 yard pass on the next play to let Iowa in field goal range.

2020: Take the lead first drive of the third quarter. Do not score again on our remaining four drives. Defense gets a great stop and then we give up a blindside strip sack to end the game.

We fought hard and played well! That's awesome. But when Iowa needed to make plays to win each game against us they did, because they were ***the better team***

1 hour ago, BigRedBuster said:

Up till now, they have been better and proven it on the field.  To the bolded, what prediction are you using here?  I get the feeling that most people believe we will be better than we have been the last couple years.  If we are, and these two teams stay the same, it would mean the game should be a toss up at worst.

Husker fans consistently underrate Wisconsin and Iowa. Both are considered to be top 15-20ish teams by the national media while we're considered a 30-40ish team. ESPN's FPI would favor Iowa by 11.2 points on a neutral field. They shouldn't be blowouts and preseason projections are meaningless once the games start, but they're all we have right now, so I don't get why saying we're probably going to lose to two top-15 teams should be controversial.

4 minutes ago, caveman99 said:

So losing on a last second FG doesn't count as playing with them for 4 quarters?

Hanging close and then getting steamrolled in every important moment down the stretch is not playing a four-quarter game.

10 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

These two games are the last two games of the regular season. There will be one hell of a lot of football played before then to get a feel as to where the teams are.  I understand maybe being a 7 point underdog right now (I would put it more at 3 points) because we really don't know how much our program has improved.  But, by the time they play and the point spread is more meaningful, that can change drastically.

 

@Mavric and  @Husker in WI  summed it up pretty well as to these two programs aren't light years ahead of us.

Yes, if the season starts and we're better than we're reasonably expected to be or Wisconsin or Iowa are worse than they're reasonably expected to be, they may be toss-ups! Based on the information and expectations we have right now, they're not.