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zeek

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zeek last won the day on December 6 2010

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  1. Nebraska's prestige is fine. You're not Minnesota which is like 5 decades removed from national relevance. As everyone got better media deals and other conferences make their own networks and whatnot, it was always going to and always will become harder to drag top tier talent away from nearby schools or whatnot and get them to come to Nebraska. But as long as you guys play in one of the top 10 stadium environments (probably over 100k at some point in the next decade or so), you guys will be fine on recruiting. It's just going to take a small adjustment to get used to being in the Midwest and not actually playing in Texas. More or less, you just need to win something big and you'll be in play. Does it mean you'll be pulling in recruits like Michigan and Ohio State did this year? Probably not, but those are the only two schools that you really can't top as a draw in the Big Ten for recruits right now, and they draw most of their top talent from Ohio and Michigan, which is something you guys can't do in your home region. You guys are Wisconsin with a true national brand (multiple recent NCs) or a more relevant Tennessee. That's how it's always been and how it always will be (until global warming and water shortages cause Nebraska's population to swell to 5+ million, and your state starts to produce several 4-5 star kids per year but don't hold your breath on that). Nothing has changed since the Big Ten chose you guys over Missouri and whoever else was being considered...
  2. http://www.bigtennetwork.com/subindex/video/live-news?=12
  3. Well, Penn State does want to get their program up and running with several years of recruits I'd imagine before they join a BTHC. I doubt they'd want to be a bottom feeder while building their program. But you might be right, so we'll see what happens. I think it's up to Penn State to decide when they think they'll be competitive enough in order to create a BTHC. One thing is for certain though. They're spending $90M or so of their boosters' money to create a hockey program and it's not so they can play against Bowling Green State or Lake Superior State. My guess is that there's an implicit understanding that there will be a BTHC for Penn State to join within a few years. No one spends $90M to create an expensive sports program without the understanding that they'll be getting lots of visits from the marquee Big Ten programs, so there has to be an under the table agreement of some sort on the BTHC.
  4. I would highly doubt that ND gets added as a hockey-only affiliate to the Big Ten. The BTHC is likely to materialize within the next 5 years after Penn State's program is fully operational and has a bit of experience under its belt, but the Big Ten's presidents were hesitant in the past to add hockey-only affiliates and could never agree on whether to create a BTHC with the 5 other hockey members and ND or a mix of Miami (Ohio) and others... They decided to push off the decision based on tradition, since unlike the Pac-10, which has affiliate members for sports such as the Olympic sports, the Big Ten presidents have never been able to reach agreement on allowing affiliate members; several of the members are extremely hesitant due to tradition-based reasons. Now that Penn State will be a potential 6th member, enough for a BTHC, I'd expect the presidents to simply bypass that contentious issue and create a 6 member BTHC that allows enough non-conference games to allow the CCHA and WCHA to continue to receive visits from the marquee Big Ten teams. Finally, a BTHC will possibly put pressure on Notre Dame to eventually consider it to be a major plus to joining the Big Ten. Notre Dame is building a brand new, expensive arena that has a much higher capacity, so they will need visits from the Big Ten teams in order to sell their season ticket package. Obviously, a CCHA devoid of Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State may play a secondary role in convincing Notre Dame to eventually join the Big Ten, since their hockey program may struggle without it, and hockey is perhaps the 3rd most important program there even though it is a distant 3rd...
  5. There's a lot of factors that go into this. You should be favored to be the Big Ten "West" representative in the CCG, since only Michigan State looks like they can challenge you for that spot. However, Michigan State's crossovers are their annual crossover of Indiana along with Ohio State and Wisconsin, so you are somewhat lucky that they have to face almost the same schedule as you (obviously Penn State is more difficult than Indiana, but the road would be vastly different if they had gotten say Purdue and Illinois as their rotating teams). One thing that will be interesting is unfamiliarity. The 8 Big Ten teams that you play are only going to be unfamiliar with Nebraska, whereas Nebraska will have to face that schematic challenge every week. If I had to guess, you'll probably have a 10 win season next year, with 1 loss in the Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State group and another among your other 5 games. In some sense, you're going to get everyone's best shot like the Miami Heat because everyone will want to give you their best, but that's no different from this year, so your team will be able to handle that burden easily. If your offense comes together and you don't have injury issues, you could go 11-1 or better and compete for the national championship, since you will probably be the top 1 loss team in the country with that schedule...
  6. As far as bowls go, there's never a situation that leaves everyone happy. This year, just look at Michigan State's 11-1 relegation to the Capital One. Obviously, that's a result of the BCS restriction of two, but the Big Ten bowls generally select based on merit. Northwestern has seen both sides of it; as the smallest fanbase, Iowa was selected over us a few years ago due to their traveling fanbase. But last year, an 8-4 Northwestern was selected over a 9-3 Wisconsin for the Outback because we ran the table in our last 3 weeks and beat Iowa and Wisconsin. Thus, if you can sell tickets and prove your quality on the field, you'll get the better bowls in the Big Ten. Nebraska will fit in perfectly as perhaps the strongest traveling fanbase in the new Big Ten other than Ohio State, so I can't see a situation where Nebraska won't be selected for the better bowl, especially if you win the head-to-head matchup. You're not going to see a situation like this Missouri-Iowa game being selected over a clearly more compelling Nebraska-Iowa matchup. As with anything else, the Big Ten is a relatively staid conference. I know some folks have mentioned that they'd like later start times, but there is an ABC restriction on 3:30 starts (I believe) as well as the fact that the schools are just now coming around to prime-time games. Northwestern has only hosted a dozen night games in its entire football history, which probably includes some 1200 games, so that tell you that a lot of changes will take time. From what I've learned of my time as a fan of a school in the conference, it tries to look out as much for the bigger schools as it does for the smaller schools. That's really all you can ask for out of a conference; the Ohio States and Michigans get their way some of the time, but so do the Northwesterns and Indianas.
  7. It's a good point that there will be rematches, especially over the next 2 years if Nebraska makes the CCG and is rematched with Wisconsin, Ohio State, or Penn State, but that's really not different from Auburn playing SC twice this year. If there's a team in the NC hunt, they'll win twice and prove it on the field. The goal of the Big Ten divisions was mainly competitive balance and to create compelling national matchups. That's why Nebraska is paired up with Penn State as its crossover rival. Over time, I would expect the Big Ten to move to 9 conference games, which means you play 3 of the other 5 in the other division along with Penn State, so we should expect a lot of rematches in the CCG.
  8. Well, if you include CCG appearances, it has happened in the Big 12. Kansas State lost to Oklahoma on 10/14/2000, 12/2/2000, and 9/29/2001.
  9. The reason why Nebraska doesn't receive a full revenue share until around 2015-2017 is that it's a sort of "buy in" to the Big Ten Network. Right now a quick back of the hand calculation puts the Big Ten Network's value at $1 billion (it earns roughly $140M split 51-49 between the conference and FOX at a forward P/E of roughly 6-7). Nebraska's stake in the Big Ten Network will be worth around roughly $40-50M. Thus, you're sort of leaving $40-50M on the table for the other 11 schools as you "acquire" your 1/12th of the conference's 51% stake in the BTN. Just think of it like that. After the 2016 ABC/ESPN contract negotiations, and after you've gone through that buy in period, every Big Ten school will probably receive somewhere north of $30M. For contrast, the average Big 12 school right now earns $10M and it's on an uneven scale. Your take should be roughly 3x as much by the time you receive a full share. Financially, Nebraska will be taken care of, that's not something to worry about... Your president and AD clearly know all of the details, so you don't have to worry if they're comfortable with the arrangement. As for scheduling, you have your division and Penn State every year. Ohio State and Wisconsin will rotate off in exchange for 2 of Illinois, Indiana, and Purdue. Every school wants to play Nebraska, and they're obviously not going to stick you with the toughest schedule every year. They just want the ratings to be off the charts in the first two years with Nebraska-Michigan, Nebraska-Iowa, Nebraska-Penn State, Nebraska-Wisconsin, Nebraska-Ohio State in the first year. Those 5 games will have amazing ratings, so Delany will go into the 2015-2016 ABC/ESPN negotiations with a really big stick. I expect every school to earn $30M+ after that negotiation. Over time the value of the Big Ten Network will grow as penetration increases; you guys are getting in at a good time. The next time expansion rolls around, the BTN could be worth $2bn or more...; you're buying in at a good price.
  10. Thanks for the welcome guys. I've been lurking on this forum as a guest for the past half year since you decided to join the Big Ten. I wanted to get the pulse of the Nebraska fanbase, and I just figured that this was as good a time as any to add my thoughts given the way the season ended. Your team and its fans proved over the past 6 months that the Big Ten made the right decision by inviting your school into the conference. I'll stick around as a lurker for the most part, but I did want to make sure that you know that every Big Ten fan out there is proud to have your past, present, and future joining our tradition.
  11. Hey Husker fans, just came by to offer some thoughts on the Big 12 CCG, your bowl game, and next year. You guys showed a lot of heart out there in the CCG, and it was impressive that you guys managed to have a majority of the crowd at JerryWorld. The result was tough, but you have to know that the whole Big Ten was behind you, and you ended up on the short end of a classic. OU-NU matchups tend to mostly be of that variety, and they're the kind of games you never want to end although you know one team has to come up short. And so even though Oklahoma won and defended the Big 12's "rep", any objective viewer would look at the 2009 and 2010 Big 12 CCGs and realize that the Big 12 has lost it's anchor in the north. Those two Nebraska-Texas and Nebraska-Oklahoma games simply can't be replaced by any of the remaining squads as compelling national matchups, which is why Texas tried to bluff to keep you in the Big 12. As for the bowl game, Beebe is forcing the Insight Bowl to play politics, and they know where their bread is buttered (at the heel of Texas like everything else in the Big 12). The Big Ten's premiere matchups are the Rose Bowl and our matchups with the SEC for the most part. Most squads fight for the right to get to Florida first (after the NC/Rose), since the Capital One Bowl and Outback Bowl tend to grab marquee opponents more often and get the highest TV ratings (of any non-BCS bowl) and money as they're on New Years' Day. Just finish off Washington strong and prepare for the transition, since you guys will have your eye on the Big Ten CCG and a possible BCS NC bid or the Rose Bowl bid in your first year. So let Mizzou get their gloating in for a few weeks about how they finally got picked over you for the Insight Bowl. For the most part, it's irrelevant; the Big 12 CCG was your bowl game; the Holiday Bowl is just a reward for your players for their 10-3 season and a set of practices in order to prepare you for the Big Ten. We'll see how well Mizzou thrives in a Big 12 where they have to go up against the entire Big 12 South every year. They managed to peep out during your down period earlier in the decade, but they're doomed to irrelevance in a Big 12 that will resemble the Big Ten before Penn State joined, when it was just Michigan and Ohio State competing for the Rose Bowl. Just think, no more PPV games, new annual matchups with Michigan, Penn State, and Iowa. You guys were never respected enough in the Big 12 to get an East-West setup or some other way to preserve your rivalry game with OU. We don't even have to get into the money. The Big Ten CCG will earn over $22M per year for just the TV rights. For comparison the SEC's version earns $13.5M and the Big 12's earns even less. That doesn't even get to how big the earnings of the Big Ten Network will be after Nebraska adds viewers across the country to increase penetration and increases ratings by bringing marquee matchups to the Big Ten Network. Once the Big Ten reloads its ABC/ESPN contract in 2015-2016, the whole country will be amazed at the earning power of the Big Ten with Nebraska; we're talking over $30M per year per school easily. The Big 12's schools will be earning far less, especially the 7 dwarfs serving Texas. That doesn't even get to the academic benefits that you will experience over time. I speak to you as a Northwestern fan. What other conference could get Northwestern nationally televised games on the ABC/ESPN family of networks for a half of its games every year? Right now, it seems a bit raw to be leaving behind the Big 8 (and OU especially), but over the next couple of decades, your team will compete for national championships, Big Ten championships, and Rose Bowls as you create a new tradition in the Big Ten. I'm looking forward to seeing Ryan Field turn red every other year (hopefully we'll have the stadium renovated before your first visit but probably not) and making the trip out to Lincoln to experience gameday at Memorial Stadium. Either way, congratulations on your season. Even though you came up a bit short of your goals, I enjoyed watching your games to get a preview of what the Big Ten will look like with Nebraska in the fold. Go out there and blast Washington again (even though Bo'll have to be a miracle worker to get your players excited for that matchup), and we'll be waiting to see you guys in the Big Ten.
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