Stating the case for Bryan Kelly

[speedtoburn]

The favorites for Head Coach at the University of Nebraska next year seem to be Turner Gill and Bo Pelini.

 

Some have mentioned Cincinnati's Brian Kelly. After doing a little statistical work, he is the obvious choice.

 

Turner Gill is the emotional favorite. He is a good man and a Husker through and through. But he only has two years coaching experience at a MAC school. Yeah, they have improved a great deal, but you know who else brought a MAC school from the bottom to the conference championship game in two years? Another guy who was a good man and a Husker through and through, Frank Solich. Maybe Gill would be a good hire. But not two years out. He hasn't done enough for me to risk the entire Husker program on him for the next four years.

 

Bo Pelini looks to be a great defensive mind. But you only have to look as far as Mike Stoops and Bob Davie to find coaches with similar pedigrees that haven't done so well at the helm of major programs. Bo also may do well. I really wouldn't be upset with giving him a chance.

 

 

 

But lets look further at Brian Kelly.

 

We know recruiting is important. But we have also learned, painfully, that it is not the only thing. You have to coach players up, not simply expect them to perform.

 

I did a little excercise to see who was the best at coaching their players up.

 

First I found the average recruiting rank of all BCS schools over the last five years. (I used various scheme to weight each class, but the results didn't vary much.) Then I found the current Sagarin ratings for each BCS conference team. I then subtracted their Sagarin position from their recruiting position. If the resulting number was positive, the coaches were doing very well with the raw material they had. If the number was negative, the coaches were doing very poorly with that material. Based on that analysis, here at the best and worst coaches of 2007.

 

Best

1. Cincinnati +57

2. South Florida +45

3. Kansas +45

4. Connecticut +44

5. West Virginia +39

 

Worst

62. Nebraska -34

63. Mississippi -35

64. Florida State -37

65. Notre Dame -45

66. Miami -50

 

Over the last 4/5 years Cincinnati ranked DEAD LAST in the BCS Conferences in recruiting according to Rivals. They are currently NINTH in the Sagarin ratings (PREDICTOR method). 66-9=57

 

Brian Kelly has come in and in ONE YEAR turned probably one of the least physically talented teams into one of the best teams in the nation. Plus he has won championships at other levels.

 

This guy is GOOD!!! Turner Gill? Bo Pelini? Very risky relative to Brian Kelly.

 

Lock him in today, Tom.

[OKCHusker]

Agreed...best canidate out there by far.

[raw1]

The favorites for Head Coach at the University of Nebraska next year seem to be Turner Gill and Bo Pelini.

 

Some have mentioned Cincinnati's Brian Kelly. After doing a little statistical work, he is the obvious choice.

 

Turner Gill is the emotional favorite. He is a good man and a Husker through and through. But he only has two years coaching experience at a MAC school. Yeah, they have improved a great deal, but you know who else brought a MAC school from the bottom to the conference championship game in two years? Another guy who was a good man and a Husker through and through, Frank Solich. Maybe Gill would be a good hire. But not two years out. He hasn't done enough for me to risk the entire Husker program on him for the next four years.

 

Bo Pelini looks to be a great defensive mind. But you only have to look as far as Mike Stoops and Bob Davie to find coaches with similar pedigrees that haven't done so well at the helm of major programs. Bo also may do well. I really wouldn't be upset with giving him a chance.

 

 

 

But lets look further at Brian Kelly.

 

We know recruiting is important. But we have also learned, painfully, that it is not the only thing. You have to coach players up, not simply expect them to perform.

 

I did a little excercise to see who was the best at coaching their players up.

 

First I found the average recruiting rank of all BCS schools over the last five years. (I used various scheme to weight each class, but the results didn't vary much.) Then I found the current Sagarin ratings for each BCS conference team. I then subtracted their Sagarin position from their recruiting position. If the resulting number was positive, the coaches were doing very well with the raw material they had. If the number was negative, the coaches were doing very poorly with that material. Based on that analysis, here at the best and worst coaches of 2007.

 

Best

1. Cincinnati +57

2. South Florida +45

3. Kansas +45

4. Connecticut +44

5. West Virginia +39

 

Worst

62. Nebraska -34

63. Mississippi -35

64. Florida State -37

65. Notre Dame -45

66. Miami -50

 

Over the last 4/5 years Cincinnati ranked DEAD LAST in the BCS Conferences in recruiting according to Rivals. They are currently NINTH in the Sagarin ratings (PREDICTOR method). 66-9=57

 

Brian Kelly has come in and in ONE YEAR turned probably one of the least physically talented teams into one of the best teams in the nation. Plus he has won championships at other levels.

 

This guy is GOOD!!! Turner Gill? Bo Pelini? Very risky relative to Brian Kelly.

 

Lock him in today, Tom.

 

Good analysis. I wonder if the dynamics of such a consideration have changed in light of the changes in college football overall. More nationally televised games, more evenly matched teams and higher quality play among what used to be considered lesser programs. In other words I wonder if the Cinncinnati guy is even interested or is he happy right where he is. I have a feeling the South Florida guy might want to stay there and establish a long term relationship between his program and his school. Ten years from now USF might be thought of as we think of Florida State right now and it will be his statue that is in front of the stadium.

 

Not sure what the answer is but I am pretty sure nothing is as automatic as it used to be.

[shyndy]

Well, that is interesting, at least. It can't be a coincidence that the top 5 there is some of the percieved best college coaches. However, I think the point has been made that there is probably flaw in the recruiting rankings. I mean, the one surprise on there is West Virginia, I mean, really? They've been pretty solid for a few years now, and I know they get some players, they pulled in Noel Devine in last year's class.