HUSKER 37 Posted March 2, 2010 Share Posted March 2, 2010 Case studies in NUmerology I guess the thing that struck me as the most interesting stat was overall team experience and it's correlation to our success. {Experience} • Team-by-team measurement of collective years in the NU program: 2009: 322 2008: 305 2007: 294 2006: 294 2005: 302 2004: 333 2003: 450 2002: 459 2001: 440 2000: 435 1999: 419 1998: 425 1997: 403 1996: 413* *—approximate A closer look at Nebraska's differing blends of walk-ons, redshirts, scholarship players, junior college transfers and difference-makers. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * {Sunday Starters} Future professional starters joining the Nebraska program each season: 1994: {8} Grant Wistrom, Mike Rucker, Jay Foreman, Michael Booker, Joel Makovicka, Sheldon Jackson, Jason Wiltz, Jared Tomich 1995: {3} Ahman Green, Eric Warfield, Scott Frost 1996: {5} Mike Brown, Ralph Brown, Russ Hochstein, Carlos Polk, Eric Johnson 1997: {4} Kyle Vanden Bosch, Dominic Raiola, Correll Buckhalter, Joe Walker 1998: {4} Chris Kelsay, DeJuan Groce, Scott Shanle, Keyuo Craver 1999: {2} Toniu Fonoti, Ryon Bingham 2000: {0} 2001: {4} Barrett Ruud, Josh Bullocks, Daniel Bullocks, Richie Incognito 2002: {4} Demorrio Williams, Fabian Washington, Adam Carriker, Stewart Bradley 2003: {0} It's not enough to build a bulky roster at Nebraska. First-class talent must be recruited and developed. How do you measure top-rate talent? Too often, all-conference and All-America honors are tethered to wins and losses. So let's try the NFL. But hundreds of players each year receive an NFL paycheck without making a difference. In fact, at Nebraska, more than 20 percent of scholarship players from 1994 to 2003 played at least a down in the NFL; that doesn't include those who earned a spot on a practice squad or went through tryouts. There is, however, generally a dividing line between warm bodies and NFL starters. So for our purposes, the measuring stick is players starting at least one NFL game, on offense or defense. Notice that 26 of the 34 on the list started on defense, including 12 of the last 14 players. Most of Tom Osborne's offensive players weren't groomed for NFL systems, but he still found 34 eventual NFL players, including 24 starters, from 1994 to '98. (Osborne deserves part ownership of the '98 class since he retired a month before signing day). Frank Solich's 2003 class doesn't look any better than his 2000 class, but remember that many of those prospects (Joe Dailey, Brandon Teamer, Andy Birkel, Chris Patrick, Ryan Schuler) left NU after Solich was fired, and those who stayed (Brett Byford, Josh Mueller, J.B. Phillips, Tierre Green, Bo Ruud, Corey McKeon) played in a system different from the one for which they signed up. Bill Callahan's 2004, 2005 and 2006 classes have produced two starters (Brandon Jackson and Carl Nicks), but many of Callahan's recruits are fighting for NFL jobs this month. It's too soon to judge their NFL success. {Experience} • Team-by-team measurement of collective years in the NU program: 2009: 322 2008: 305 2007: 294 2006: 294 2005: 302 2004: 333 2003: 450 2002: 459 2001: 440 2000: 435 1999: 419 1998: 425 1997: 403 1996: 413* *—approximate It does a coach no good to invite 100 freshmen to practice each fall, only to see them quit by New Year's. It does no good to sign 20 junior-college players each year, only to see them leave after two seasons. It does a coach no good to invite 100 freshmen to practice each fall, only to see them quit by New Year's. It does no good to sign 20 junior-college players each year, only to see them leave after two seasons. A coach wants players who will commit three, four, even five years. If you believe in continuity and experience, this graphic is a critical barometer. It accounts not only for the number of players at NU, but how much they're committing to the football team. A fifth-year senior is worth five to the yearly total, a true freshman is worth one. Each year from 1996 to 2003, the Huskers collectively had at least 400 years in the program. Since, they haven't topped 333. Mostly, that's a signal that NU doesn't have as many players. But the ones it did have recently also didn't stay as long. Interesting question: Is there a point of diminishing returns to this stat? The numbers are largest in 2002 and 2003, because walk-ons from the 2000 and 2001 classes were staying in the program slightly longer than usual. Were they staying longer because scholarship players weren't panning out, thus yielding more playing time to walk-ons? If so, is it a bad sign when too many walk-ons stay four and five years? How much attrition is a good thing? {Millenium Bust} • List of the 2000 scholarship recruits: Willie Amos Jake Andersen Terrell Butler Shaun Coleman Thunder Collins Ira Cooper Sandro DeAngelis Mike Erickson M.J. Flaum T.J. Hollowell Lannie Hopkins Steve Kriewald DeWayne Long Lornell McPherson Nick Povendo Jason Richenberger Chris Septak Benard Thomas Ben Zajicek When Steve Pederson fired Frank Solich in 2003, he cited a downturn in recruiting from NU's glory years. Pederson was right. And Pederson was wrong. Eight members of Nebraska's 2001 recruiting class went on to the NFL. Four more (Adam Carriker, Demorrio Williams, Stewart Bradley and Fabian Washington) from the 2002 class were starting on NFL defenses in 2008. Pretty impressive stuff from a coaching staff considered stale by critics. But it was Solich's and his assistants' early mistakes that caught up with them. His 1999 group, by NU standards, was sub-par. Failure came in 2000. Recruiting gurus ranked that Husker class in the top 15 nationally. But most recruits, especially Thunder Collins, Chris Septak, Ira Cooper, Lannie Hopkins and Jason Richenberger, didn't come close to expectations. T.J. Hollowell proved to be the only player to earn any conference honors, and he was only honorable mention in 2003. Hollowell also was the only one to play a down in the NFL; he made one tackle in six career games. So it's true that Solich had erred in recruiting, as Pederson said. But the sins for which he paid were four years old. {Juco Market Surge} • List of scholarship junior-college transfers: • 2009: Brandon Kinnie, Dejon Gomes • 2008: Ricky Henry, Tyson Hetzer • 2007: Kevin Dixon, Shukree Barfield, Larry Asante, Armando Murillo, Zac Lee • 2006: Kenny Wilson, Brandon Johnson, Steve Allen, Victory Haines, Maurice Purify, Carl Nicks, Andre Jones, Tyrell Spain • 2005: Bryan Wilson, Justin Tomerlin, Zac Taylor, Zack Bowman, Frantz Hardy, Brock Pasteur, Jordan Picou, Ola Dagunduro, Barry Cryer, Dontrell Moore, Steve Octavien • 2004: Jordan Adams, Cornealius Thomas • 2003: Donald Defrand, Wali Muhammad, Darren DeLone • 2002: Demorrio Williams • 2001: Clifford Brye, Rodney Burgess • 2000: Thunder Collins • 1999: Larry Henderson • 1998: None • 1997: Brandon Harrison • 1996: None • 1995: Terrell Farley • 1994: Brian Knuckles, John Livingston Nebraska has signed 42 players from junior colleges during the past 16 classes. Nearly half of those (19) joined NU during a two-year span under Bill Callahan. Coaches typically seek help from junior colleges when they have an immediate need. But high juco numbers signal urgency. Think of it like a contending baseball franchise dealing prospects for a starting pitcher at the trade deadline. They exchange long-term potential for short-term help. The difference in the football recruiting analogy: Jucos are less of a sure thing, because they're unproven at the D-1 level. Stars do emerge. Zac Taylor was the Big 12 offensive player of the year. Demorrio Williams and Terrell Farley changed Nebraska's defense when they joined the lineup. But more often, Husker juco transfers made little contribution. And each scholarship awarded to a transfer is one less a coach can give to a high school prospect, who has more time to learn and develop. {Big 12 Rosters} • The conference's largest rosters in 2009: Nebraska 142 Texas A&M 125 Kansas State 119 Missouri 118 Oklahoma State 115 Colorado 114 Baylor 112 Texas 111 Texas Tech 110 Iowa State 108 Oklahoma 103 Kansas 100 {By the Numbers} 79.4, 78.1, 50.7 Of scholarship players who arrived on campus as freshmen from 1994 to '97, Tom Osborne redshirted 58 of 73, 79.4 percent. Frank Solich followed the same pattern. In six seasons, he redshirted 82 of 105 freshmen, 78.1 percent. Bill Callahan took over for Solich and changed course. In four seasons, he redshirted 34 of 67 freshmen, 50.7 percent. 3.7, 2.6 The average contribution of a Nebraska scholarship player is 3.7 seasons. Walk-ons average 2.6 seasons. That's during a span of 11 recruiting classes (1994 to 2005). Combine the two, and the average Husker during that period spent 3.0 seasons in the program. But here's an interesting fact: Walk-ons outnumbered scholarship players by a 5-to-3 ratio during that period, so walk-ons actually devoted more total seasons than scholarship players. 24 Nebraska's depth through the years has afforded it the luxury to redshirt many of its best prospects. The strategy can pay dividends in year five. Since 1996, 70 times a Nebraska player has received first- or second-team All-Big 12 honors. More than one-third (34.3 percent) were fifth-year seniors. The list of 24 includes Mike Minter, Jason Peter, Mike Rucker, Dan Alexander, Russ Hochstein, DeJuan Groce, Cory Ross, Adam Carriker and Matt Slauson. Imagine Eric Crouch exhausting eligibility before his Heisman season. Or Aaron Taylor finishing his career before his Outland Trophy season. Ndamukong Suh played during his freshman season, 2005, but the defensive tackle got hurt and received a medical redshirt. Think Bo Pelini isn't thankful? 48 Walk-ons give Nebraska an edge on Saturdays, but Big Red still needs difference-makers. And signing non- and partial qualifiers was a useful tool during the Big Eight era. The Big 12, however, prohibited non-qualifiers and limited partial qualifiers in football to one per year, effectively forcing those prospects to attend junior college if they wanted to pursue a Division I career. The change derailed Nebraska, which had relied on Proposition 48 players. Prop 48 stated that an athlete who didn't fully qualify could be granted a scholarship, but he had to sit out his freshman season and lose one year of eligibility. Charles Fryar, Derek Brown, Johnny Mitchell, Clinton Childs, Shevin Wiggins and Eric Johnson were “Props.” Look at the non- and partial qualifiers who became starters on the Huskers' three national title teams: Dwayne Harris, 1994 Barron Miles, '94 Tyrone Williams, '94-'95 Christian Peter, '94-'95 Reggie Baul, '95 Jamel Williams, '95 Jared Tomich, '95 Michael Booker, '95 Eric Warfield, '97 How to Calculate the Greatest College Football Team Ever Quote Link to comment
blessed2bahusker Posted March 5, 2010 Share Posted March 5, 2010 Thanks for the post. Very interesting, but I think it would be more telling if they showed number of years in the program of all the players making up the 2 deep or something to that effect. It seems fairly obvious that total years of experience would be directly proportional to the total number of players that we had. However, about half of those players during the "glory days" rarely saw the field. Although, many of those players who never saw the field made an invaluable contribution. Quote Link to comment
HUSKER 37 Posted March 5, 2010 Author Share Posted March 5, 2010 Thanks for the post. Very interesting, but I think it would be more telling if they showed number of years in the program of all the players making up the 2 deep or something to that effect. It seems fairly obvious that total years of experience would be directly proportional to the total number of players that we had. However, about half of those players during the "glory days" rarely saw the field. Although, many of those players who never saw the field made an invaluable contribution. That (2-deep) would be an interesting stat...Although highly dependant on the need or willingness to play freshmen and Sophomores. I think the author was trying to illustrate the effects of bringing in too many juco's Nebraska has signed 42 players from junior colleges during the past 16 classes. Nearly half of those (19) joined NU during a two-year span under Bill Callahan. Coaches typically seek help from junior colleges when they have an immediate need. But high juco numbers signal urgency. We've had some great ones over the years, but we didn't usually see more than one or two each class. It's important to have consistency with a good coaching staff that sticks around, but it's also advantageous to have the players for the full 4-5 years. That one unmentionable coaching staff we had after Solich needed more jucos on the Offensive side of the ball just because of the major change in Offensive philosophies, but a better coaching staff probably would've worked around what we had and developed the direction of the team more slowly..not sacrificing whole seasons to attract players that were bent on playing right away Quote Link to comment
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