Dirk Chatelain: He may be a real McCoy, but he's no Suh

[Nexus]

I do not claim to think quickly. I do not claim to think deeply. But I think.

 

And I've come to this conclusion: NFL draft experts think too much.

 

According to several prominent gurus, Ndamukong Suh is no longer the No. 1 defensive player in the draft, as he was almost unanimously three months ago.

 

I have tried to consume the reasons why. I have read all the chatter I could digest. I have studied the minutiae, the trivia, the numbers.

 

I still feel like I'm staring into a 3-D image, unable to pick out the hidden object. What am I missing?

 

In 2009, I watched Suh rip apart offenses the way a lion attacks lunch. I watched him — in the season's most important game — perform superhuman tricks.

 

Experts widely hailed his dismantling of Texas as the greatest defensive spectacle in years.

 

Suh is not hurt, right? Suh has not been arrested. Suh has not been kidnapped, taken to an island in the Pacific and held without food as natives prick him with porcupine quills.

 

He is still the 300-pound freak we all saw last fall. Perhaps even better, after weeks of intense workouts.

 

So why do people who make a lot of money breaking down game film — smart people like Todd McShay and Mike Mayock — keep telling me that Suh has dropped behind Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy?

 

Without taking a snap.

 

The deductive reasoning goes like this: NFL offenses pass the ball better than ever. So defenses value pass rushers more than ever. Quickness is the primary attribute of most pass rushers. McCoy is quicker than Suh. Thus, McCoy will be a better NFL player.

 

Former GM Charley Casserly believes it. ESPN's McShay believes it.

 

Mayock, NFL Network analyst and draft expert, said this:

 

"If you want to be a little bit ahead of the curve as an evaluator of talent, I think you've gotta be looking at the point that it's a pass-first league. It's not stop the run and run the football anymore. You can just look around the league and see what's happening."

 

On film, McCoy has a slightly quicker first step than Suh. It's absolutely true. Trouble is, Suh is better in just about every other way.

 

If the 2009 season didn't prove it, what could?

 

Suh, facing more double teams than McCoy in a scheme less tailored for defensive line exploits, had 85 tackles. That led Nebraska.

 

McCoy had 34 tackles, 11th on the Sooners' D. (Isn't the mission of a defensive tackle to actually, you know, tackle people?)

 

Well, if McCoy is quicker, surely he will have more sacks, tackles for loss, hurries and pass breakups.

 

Suh: 12 sacks, 24 TFL, 26 hurries, 10 breakups.

 

McCoy: six sacks, 15½ TFL, nine hurries, two breakups.

 

Maybe Suh benefited from generous statisticians. Maybe offensive lines suffered an epidemic of snap-count memory loss against Nebraska.

 

If McCoy is more athletic, surely it would show in measurements like the 40-yard dash and vertical jump.

 

Suh's 40 times: 4.98 seconds, 5.07. McCoy's 40 times: 4.96, 5.14.

 

Suh's vertical: 35½ inches. McCoy's vertical: 30½.

 

I have seen more of Suh than McCoy. I am not a candidate for NFL general manager openings. And I'm not suggesting NFL teams always favor the player with better statistics.

 

But please, someone show me something McCoy did in 2009 that Suh did not.

 

I have watched the highlight films. I have marveled at McCoy's movement. He harassed BYU. He hassled Texas.

 

But he is not Suh.

 

Not as a pass rusher, not as a run stopper. Not on Saturdays, not on Sundays.

 

A month ago, I talked to Ravens coach John Harbaugh about Suh. I asked Harbaugh what he thought.

 

Everything Suh did in college, Harbaugh said, he'll do in the NFL.

 

But that No. 1 pick is so expensive, I said. If you were the Rams, would you consider trading it?

 

Maybe if No. 1 was a quarterback or a running back — it's tough to project how certain positions will translate to the NFL. But with a guy like Suh available, Harbaugh said, you take him. It's a sure bet.

 

Why don't the gurus agree?

 

Maybe Mayock and Co. feel pressure to stay relevant. Maybe they moved McCoy ahead of Suh to draw attention, to generate buzz, to give them something to debate during endless hours of pre-draft coverage.

 

If their draft boards never change, who watches their shows?

 

Maybe they saw the Suh-nami sweeping over the sport after the Big 12 title game and got skeptical. Their job is not to agree with the man on the street. Their job is to know more than the man on the street.

 

So they overanalyzed. They overlooked the obvious. They highlighted the superficial. They forgot the No. 1 rule in evaluating anything.

 

Trust your eyes.

 

LINK

[huskernumerouno]

McCoy is good but this guy gets it right in my opinion. He does not stack up well against SUH in any way shape or form

[irafreak]

Maybe Mayock and Co. feel pressure to stay relevant. Maybe they moved McCoy ahead of Suh to draw attention, to generate buzz, to give them something to debate during endless hours of pre-draft coverage.

 

This right here.

[wags]

the problem with this article is that it contains the phrase " smart people like todd mcshay and mike mayock".

[ESPY]

the finest suh v mccoy article i've read from any media so far. well done chatelain!

[Chucktown Husker]

the problem with this article is that it contains the phrase " smart people like todd mcshay and mike mayock".

 

Totally agree. McShay is annoying. I've accepted the fact that because of these so-called experts (who probably either never played football or rode the pine), Suh won't go number one like he should. However, I am willing to bet the farm that Suh will have a much longer and productive career than McCoy and that I can live with.