Chance to Make NFL Roster by Star Rating

[Mavric]

This is the first time I've seen a recruiting-industry person admit this.

 

They almost always like to say "but there are so many more three-stars, of course there are more three-stars drafted."  Which is, of course, true.

 

But the part they usually ignore is the five-stars are supposed to be the can't-miss guys.  Best of the best.  There are usually 30-35 five-stars in each class.  Which means there should be about the same number eligible for the draft each year.  

If you got people to look at the five-stars in each recruiting class and say they have about a 50/50 chance of being a bust, no one would believe you.  But it's the truth.

 

And the four-stars being only about a 25% chance of really panning out is interesting as well.  Although there are more four-stars than draft picks so that's not quite as telling.