I agree.
IMO there will be 5 undefeated teams at most at the end of the regular season -- Oregon, Ohio State, Nebraska, Boise State, TCU/Utah -- and the only way I see Boise State or TCU/Utah getting into the National Championship is if all of the AQ teams lose at least one game (more like 2).
Wouldn't be surprised at all to see Alabama in the BCS Title Game, too.
Remember that 2 years ago both Florida and Oklahoma had a loss going into the CHampionship.