Cactusboy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 With fewer than nine months to go before Election Day, The Signal predicts that Barack Obama will win the presidential contest with 303 electoral votes to the Republican nominee's 235. How do we know? We don't, of course. Campaigns and candidates evolve, and elections are dynamic events with more variables than can reasonably be distilled in an equation. But the data--based on a prediction engine created by Yahoo! scientists--suggest a second term is likely for the current president. This model does not use polls or prediction markets to directly gauge what voters are thinking. Instead, it forecasts the results of the Electoral College based on past elections, economic indicators, measures of state ideology, presidential approval ratings, incumbency, and a few other politically agnostic factors. http://news.yahoo.co...-202543583.html Link to comment
HSKR Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Interesting read. It wouldn't surprise me at all if it happened close to that. I notice there are a lot of states just over the 50% ranking for Obama. So for example if two of the larger states such as OH and PA went to the Republican candidate, that is all it would take for Obama to lose. There are a lot of unknowns left until the election but as I mentioned in another thread, if the unemployment numbers keep steadily improving and gets around 8.0%, I think he holds just enough of the previously won states to win again. Link to comment
Sub-Husker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The electoral college sucks as it... it is the BCS of elections. 1 Link to comment
knapplc Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The electoral college sucks as it... it is the BCS of elections. Agreed. Time to end the charade of the electoral college. Link to comment
carlfense Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The electoral college sucks as it... it is the BCS of elections. Agreed. Time to end the charade of the electoral college. Agreed. (I think huskertim was arguing in favor of it in this thread http://www.huskerboard.com/index.php?/topic/57105-ben-nelson-done/page__view__findpost__p__905693 but then he abandoned his argument. I can't imagine why.) Link to comment
VectorVictor Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I posted this in the 'War on Religion' thread, but it's just as apt here too: --- An interesting op-ed discussing potential fallout from recent comments Republican candidates and their fiscal supporters have made regarding the recent Birth Control/Contraceptive debate: polling numbers among single women are swinging significantly in favor of Obama again: Among this group, Obama now leads Romney by 65-30 — and there’s been a net 18-point swing towards the President among them: After unmarried women dropped off for Dems in 2010 and were slow to return to the Dem fold in 2011, Obama is now approaching the 70 percent he won among them in 2008... ...And the pitched battle over birth control could continue to galvanize and unite this group behind him, particularly if Romney is forced to embrace the conservative position. via Washington Post --- Frankly, Obama won't need to shill on Oprah for women this year--they're getting frightened by all of the Santorum and derp coming from the GOP this year, and they're probably going to vote Obama just because they know his administration won't try to set back their rights 50+ years, married or single. Link to comment
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