The all-American Donald Trump: why Trump's rise could only happen here

[zoogs]

http://www.vox.com/2016/8/19/12547038/trump-european-right-immigration-american-politics-nationalism

 

I wanted to post this separately because it touches on a lot of interesting topics:

 

- Europe's far-right minor parties

- Europe's proportional representation versus "first past the post" parliamentary in UK and Canada versus "first past the post" presidential system in the U.S.

- The formation of the modern Republican coalition, which like any other has competing interests

- Trump's platform and place in these contexts

 

It's interesting that the system that has served the U.S. well in the past in resisting extremism is now flirting quite close with it. Though there's also the argument, not entirely rejected here I think, that what we is usually considered politically "extreme" may be a lot closer to "the median American voter" than we'd like to think.

[NM11046]

Very interesting Zoog.

 

I have a family member (raised in NE) that has lived overseas now for ~20 years. He married someone from there and although they've bounced through several countries, they've stayed in continental Europe. While his spouse has always made comments aligning to the beliefs of the Ethno-nationalists, I've found it interesting that no matter the country they go to (only one of which was her homeland, and obviously none are his) she holds these prejudices, even though she ultimately is what she rails against! She hasn't worked in 20 years, has benefitted from healthcare and all the support that comes from the government no matter the country they've lived in. It seems her main issue really isn't immigrants, it's people of color, specifically those coming from places outside of continental europe that practice religions or live in a way that is different than how she chooses to live.

 

The heartbreaking thing is that after 20 years my fair minded, soft spoken, fair, family member has begun spouting much of the hateful rhetoric of his spouse.

 

Interesting note - neither of them has voted in Europe (ever to my knowledge) and he hasn't voted in the US since he moved overseas. So for all their bravado and offensive, opinionated conversations they don't actually take the initiative to influence the outcomes. It will be interesting to see if the same holds true with our current conversations and those who actually go to the polls. Studies indicate that for all the rally attendance and interviews on tv, when it comes time to put pen to paper these folks don't do it.

 

Another thought that came to mind as I read this ... are Americans (typically those who lean right) opposed to welfare and support of our citizens as a whole or is it really driven by racial prejudice? I'm trying to think of the last time I saw a minority talking about how the US shouldn't have universal healthcare or support its citizens in other ways.

[zoogs]

To your last, I think that's truer in some circles than others. There are plenty of more well-to-do, small-government people who aren't driven by racial prejudice (and includes minorities). I think there's been some definite migration from the GOP to the Democratic Party in this group (think Bloomberg and Silicon Valley) as the tension lines in the Republican coalition become especially pronounced.

 

I hope we're in the midst of a significant realignment. But I don't have a window to the future on that.

[84HuskerLaw]

Trump is not in any way a 'conservative' or typical "Republican' of course. He won with a minority of the Republican primary vote because of several important factors that are impacting the American electorate generally.

First, many new voters entered the voting booth to cast their vote for Trump who have not heretofore voted Republican. I would estimate that as many as one third of those who voted for him did not vote Republican in previous primaries. Many are disaffected Democrats and many more are new voters. Another bunch of Trump voters are disaffected Republicans who are very upset and angry with all politicians from both parties for the lack of responsiveness to the needs of the people and the Nation as a whole. There are perhaps another 1/3rd of the Trump voters who wanted to send a message to the Republican 'establishment' types that business as usual in Washington DC is over. No more BS is acceptable - they expect action to stop the runaway socialism that is threatening the future of the country.

 

There are plenty of disaffected Democrats as well, many of whom are NOT going to come out to vote for Hillary. The polls, I suspect, will not reflect the disaffected and disgruntled of the traditional Democrat voters who are not happy with the Clintons and are not ready to go full blown Bernie socialist. These voters are not likely to vote for Trump either and I would expect many simply won't take the time and effort to vote at all, feeling 'a pox on all of them' is the best approach.

 

The likely turnout at this fall's election may well be one of the lowest in modern times as many Americans REALLY don't like either one and won't vote. This could be a good thing as it is the only likely way that Trump will win and while Trump is NOT the most eloquent of speakers to take the Presidential podium, he certainly speaks so people can understand when he means. Trump may well turn out to be a very good President and he has the chance to get a great deal done to remedy many of the Nation's ills (God knows there are plenty). He will get the budget in order within his first term and he will fix many of the waste/fraud/abuse issues that are literally costing hundreds of billions now. He will get the tax code simplified and corporate rates down to be competitive with the rest of the planet. He will get people working again at decent salaries and will get something done to fix the healthcare mess. Sadly, the Dems are so radically polarized to the far left they can't see anything but socialism as a solultion to everything. Socialist solutions are only making matters worse as most of the problems are being caused by left wing actions. Doubling down on stupid is only going to beget more stupidity.