An insight into Russian Geopolitical Strategy

[Excel]

 

 

 

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I stumbled across this book the other day, The Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical Future of Russia by Aleksandr Dugin, a professor at Moscow State University, which is apparently part of the curriculum at the Russian Military's General Staff Academy. I can't find an English translation of it or find any evidence of its influence (which is reported to be large) on Russian decision makers but you all can read the Wikipedia article about it and take from it what you will.

 

It basically outlines a strategy for a post-Soviet Russia to increase its influence in the world at the expense of just about everyone but especially us. The ultimate goal seems to be the establishment of a large Russian dominated Eurasian union, here are the basics (shamelessly copied from wiki):

 

In Europe:

 

- Germany should be offered the de facto political dominance over most Protestant and Catholic states located within Central and Eastern Europe. Kaliningrad oblast could be given back to Germany. The book uses the term a "Moscow-Berlin axis".

 

- France should be encouraged to form a "Franco-German bloc" with Germany. Both countries have a "firm anti-Atlanticist tradition".

 

- The United Kingdom should be cut off from Europe.

 

- Finland should be absorbed into Russia. Southern Finland will be combined with the Republic of Karelia and northern Finland will be "donated to Murmansk Oblast".

 

- Estonia should be given to Germany's sphere of influence.

 

- Latvia and Lithuania should be given a "special status" in the Eurasian-Russian sphere.

 

- Poland should be granted a "special status" in the Eurasian sphere.

 

- Romania, Macedonia, "Serbian Bosnia" and Greece - "orthodox collectivist East" - will unite with the "Moscow the Third Rome" and reject the "rational-individualistic West".

 

- Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as an independent state with certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is cordon sanitaire, which would be inadmissible.

 

In the Middle East and Central Asia:

 

- The book stresses the "continental Russian-Islamic alliance" which lies "at the foundation of anti-Atlanticist strategy". The alliance is based on the "traditional character of Russian and Islamic civilization".

 

- Iran is a key ally. The book uses the term "Moscow-Tehran axis".

 

- Armenia has a special role and will serve as a "strategic base" and it is necessary to create "the [subsidiary] axis Moscow-Erevan-Teheran". Armenians "are an Aryan people ... [like] the Iranians and the Kurds".

 

- Azerbaijan could be "split up" or given to Iran.

 

- Georgia should be dismembered. Abkhazia and "United Ossetia" (which includes Georgia's South Ossetia) will be incorporated into Russia. Georgia's independent policies are unacceptable.

 

- Russia needs to create "geopolitical shocks" within Turkey. These can be achieved by employing Kurds, Armenians and other minorities.

 

The book regards the Caucasus as a Russian territory, including "the eastern and northern shores of the Caspian (the territories of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan)" and Central Asia (mentioning Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kirghistan and Tajikistan).

 

In Asia:

 

- China, which represents a danger to Russia, "must, to the maximum degree possible, be dismantled".Russia should offer China help "in a southern direction – Indochina (except Vietnam), the Philippines, Indonesia, Australia".

 

- Russia should manipulate Japanese politics by offering the Kuril Islands to Japan and provoking anti-Americanism.

 

- Mongolia should be absorbed into Eurasia-Russia.

 

The book emphasizes that Russia must spread Anti-Americanism everywhere: "the main ‘scapegoat’ will be precisely the U.S."

 

In the United States:

 

- Russia should use its special forces within the borders of the United States to fuel instability and separatism. For instance, provoke "Afro-American racists". Russia should "introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist tendencies in American politics.

 

I highlighted items in red where I think we can see Russia pursuing the strategy.

 

I won't pretend to be knowledgeable on domestic Russian affairs but Dugin does seem to have some kind of a following. They appear, at first glance, to be fascists and openly reject what they call "liberalism". It's difficult to tell if leaders really subscribe to his thinking but they are at the very least fellow travelers and sympathetic in some way, Putin's recent statements and his approach to Ukraine seem to indicate he agrees with Dugin at least some level. Personally, I find the rise of Russian fascism and ultra-nationalism disturbing.

 

You can spot Dugin's followers by their use of that black flag with all the arrows, it represents his "International Eurasian Movement".

 

Marching in Russia:

 

 

In Serbia

 

 

In Syria at a pro-Assad rally. This is interesting because it would seem to hint that maybe the Russian Government in someway does support the movement given their strong ties to Assad.

 

 

In South Ossetia (disputable autonomous region of Georgia):

 

 

In the arctic:

 

 

 

Dugin isn't alone in his thinking. Some of you may remember Igor Panarin, another Russian college professor, who predicted the collapse of the US by 2010. This is how he thought it would pan out:

 

 

 

So he was obviously wrong about that but he, like Dugin, advocated the establishment of a "Eurasian Union" which we see Russia taking steps to create.

 

Like I said, I have no idea how big these ideas are in Russia, if these guys are popular or they're just seen as extremist loons, but from the outside looking in it does seem to explain a lot about their foreign policy. I'm no expert and most of my sources are crap but it's still interesting. So um... discuss I guess.

[commando]

The book stresses the "continental Russian-Islamic alliance" which lies "at the foundation of anti-Atlanticist strategy". The alliance is based on the "traditional character of Russian and Islamic civilization".

 

​islam and athiest joining forces? what could go wrong with that?

[zoogs]

The Russian association with the Wikileaks organization is starting to make sense.

 

reject the "rational-individualistic West".

 

Yeah, down with rationalism and individualism and all that.

 

Yeeeeeesh.

[Excel]

I think the new big push in Russian culture is for a return to Orthodoxy and conservative, almost authoritarian, values but yea, they do have a bunch of atheists. You're right, it is an interesting part of the strategy.

[zoogs]

Putin - or one of his immediate successors - could end up being the ultimate global bad guy of our time.

 

This is an especially vulnerable time for us I suppose, because unity within the west is a little fractured on account of the continuing and increasingly convenient-looking leaks from that guy they're keeping there. We're in less of a position to push back on Ukraine than we could be, I think.

 

BTW, that 2010 thing just makes that guy - and perhaps the like-minded thinkers in Russia of whom this Dugin guy, and Putin as well, may be a member - seem utterly delusional.

[Excel]

Putin - or one of his immediate successors - could end up being the ultimate global bad guy of our time.

 

Agreed. I heard this piece on NPR today, which covers the future of NATO. Basically, with the end of the war in Iraq and the winding down of the conflict in Afghanistan it seemed like NATO was going to take a step back and that we were going to tool down our presence in Europe. Ukraine may change that. It could also have an impact on our recent strategy to shift focus to the Pacific to deal with China which appeared to be the largest threat. It doesn't really look that way now.

[commando]

I have been watching the news with interest...but seeing the strategy behind the news is very disturbing.

[walksalone]

WOLVERINES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[commando]

estonia next?

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-russia-estonia-idUSBREA2I1J620140319

[walksalone]

Russian geopolitical aims summed up...

 

[zoogs]

"1938 called, it wants its annexation excuses back." - comment from your article, commando.