Dr. Strangelove

2 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

What are you talking about!?!????   It took like 5 minutes to look that stuff up.  I thought it was a pretty robust analysis. 

While that is funny, Lorewarn is correct. States change who they vote for for a variety of factors.

Demographic shifts, education polarization, and other factors have far more of an effect on why Iowa and Colorado are no longer swing states than it has to do with voters in those states changing their minds election to election. The voting electorate isn't identical in each state since people move, new voters reach the age of 18, or low propensity voters who rarely vote suddenly get involved in politics (Trump is excellent at this).

1 hour ago, teachercd said:

I get what you are saying and honestly you tend to always reply in the most polite ways, which I appreciate it.  I wish I did a better job at that.

 

And I did say that about trump not winning the R nominee AND while it sure looks like I was wrong (again) it still is not over!

 

As far as the bolded goes, personal experiences when seen over and over, turn into societal experiences and I do think we are headed in that direction.  As even the gambling sites are starting to change their odds.  

I think the election this year is high variable and external factors - mainly Donald Trump's legal issues - make this election unique.

My opinion would be, if Donald Trump's legal woes are going to harm his electoral prospects, I think we would be seeing that in the polls already. Right now, I don't think Trump voters really care. They're going to passionately vote for him. Biden voters (and this is a problem with the coalition that makes up the Democratic Party) are much less enthusiastic about 2024 than they were in 2020. He's going to have to hope that enthusiasm after the Dobbs decision, that PTSD from the moronic Trump Presidency, and other factors can motivate his voters to show up once again in 2024. I have my doubts that the Biden base is as motivated as the Trump base.

Of course, they could move to nominate another candidate to help alleviate the enthusiasm problem. But Gavin Newsome is a coastal elite who does not help their chances of winning crucial Midwest states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Gretchen Whitmer helps solidify the midwest vote, but nominating a white woman is dicey. Nominating her hurts their prospects among minority groups, their chances of winning in Georgia/Nevada. Candidates like Pete Buttigieg suffer from similar problems, and nominating Michelle Obama is a weird pipe dream. I don't think there's a candidate they can nominate that gives them a better shot at winning than Biden, for all his electoral flaws. 

On 2/18/2024 at 8:46 PM, teachercd said:

It won't be close. 

I remember you also saying that Donald Trump might not win the Republican nomination as recently as like a month ago, despite it being glaringly obvious that he's by far the most popular candidate for Republicans. 

You just seem to be convinced that the personal experiences you have with people and extrapolating those experiences out to the rest of America means that Biden is going to win easily.

I'm just trying to tell you that this is not at all true. Biden is currently in "loses the electoral college in a blowout" territory. Right now, improving sentiment in the public means he's trending from "loses in electoral college blowout" and trending towards " decisive popular vote victory but narrowly loses electoral college" ala Hillary in 2016. That doesn't mean he can't win, but that he's a slight underdog based on current trends.

On 2/18/2024 at 5:49 PM, teachercd said:

I get what you are saying but you saying it both ways.

 

1.  People don't change their minds

2.  People do change their minds

 

Which is it?  Do people change their minds or don't they?  How about we start with that simple question and then we can go from there.

 

So we have from you that the vast majority do not change their mind and vote the same way they did the time before.

 

Then you have that the few that do change their mind, are the ones that are stupid.  But, Joe got more votes than any other president ever, which means millions of people "changed their mind" because Hillary did NOT get that many votes, not even close...so were those 20 million mind-changers, that voted for Joe, also stupid and uninformed?  

As a whole, voters don't change their minds. They vote the same way each election. NOTE: That doesn't mean not a single person doesn't change their minds; just that not enough of them do for it to matter when it determines who wins a state's electoral college votes.

The reason Joe got more voters than Hillary in 2016 isn't because he changed the minds of millions of 2016 Trump voters. What he did do was get people to vote for him who did not vote for any candidate in 2020. The pandemic and a chaotic time for America allowed him to barely win because voters were highly engaged and millions of people who didn't vote in 2016 voted in 2020.

The reason Trump can win in 2024 without changing any minds is because his base of support is extremely loyal. He's very likely to get similar passionate turnout that he got in 2020. Biden can lose in 2024 because the base that carried him to victory may decide to stay home, that politics are exhausting, or that they are so uninterested in either candidate that they give up. In that scenario, not a single voter has to change their vote in order for Trump to win.

Currently, Trump is winning by ~2%. Biden needs to change his poll numbers to be up by ~5% to win. He needs AT LEAST to be up by ~3% on election day to have a prayer of winning. Even with improving attitudes towards the economy, swinging national polls by 7% is going to be a difficult task. 

4 minutes ago, teachercd said:

They brought in two vet WR's

I think they were 2nd in the conference, in front of michigan, when it came to the most rush yards.  If they do that again, watch out.

 

secondary will be a question mark for sure.

The issue with rushing for Nebraska is that in terms of raw rushing yards, they did well. But it wasn't a particularly efficient play and they relied on the QB run game to move the ball.

Without the threat of a QB run, which I don't think Nebraska will want to do at all with Dylan, is how much they can get out of the traditional running game. Nebraska has been average to below average doing that.

I think you're correct, they've tried to address these problems by brining in an RB transfer from Oregon, and getting WR transfers from Texas and Wake Forest. They brought in an OL from Florida. They realized that these were problems. The question is if they'll be successful in integrating these players in ways that help the team.

I don't think the coaching staff on offense is particularly good, and I question their ability to both put players in positions to succeed and to call plays that are complimentary to one another and help the team win football games.

An O/U of 7.5 seems absolutely insane. It's hard to see 8 wins on this schedule.

If the QB play improves, which it should, this team should win 6 games. There are a lot of question marks about the development of receivers, getting a reliable rushing yards from the RBs, if the OL can improve from merely being serviceable to good, and if the Secondary can improve.

Like last year, Nebraska needs to be bowl eligible by Halloween. If not they're in trouble. Unfortunately for Nebraska, Satterfield is still on the staff so I think they finish 5-7. 

11 minutes ago, teachercd said:

If not enough voters are going to "change their mind" then Joe will win with ease.  Because he won with ease last time.

This is not true. He won by ~20k votes spread around 3 states. Out of ~155 million votes cast. That's a margin of 0.00013%. Razor thin. The next election will be similar. 

14 minutes ago, teachercd said:

You can't have it both ways.  It can't be that people ARE NOT changing their mind and therefor Trump will win because if people not changing their mind than Joe wins.  

 

But you also want it to be that thousands of people ARE going to change their mind based on the price of gas and therefor Joe will lose.

In elections, voters vote for the same individuals as they did the last time, the vast majority of the time. Voter preference is extremely rigid and opinions don't change.  What decides elections is which voters are motivated to turnout. Candidates lose not because minds change, but because their voters stay home. 

The individuals who do truly change their vote, and there are not many, are the least informed voters. They either have no idea that Trump has legal problems or they chalk it up to normal politics. These few voters vote based on their personal economic situations are doing in the 4 weeks leading up to election day. 

The election is going to be close enough that these individuals could decide the election. But their opinions aren't changeable because they don't really have any. It's going to matter what gas prices do or if they pay more for their most common purchases.

5 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

"Decriminalizing" is easily one of the stupidest ideas that have come from Left Wing circles, and that is saying something.

The reality is that dealing with drug use, mental health, or what have you requires massive investment in rehabilitation, crisis management, and mental health centers that cost far more than tax payers at willing to spend. 

On 2/17/2024 at 2:44 PM, teachercd said:

Are you saying @JJ Husker and @BigRedBuster are lying?  Because the reality was enough

 

just like I changed the reality of abortion for one or the posters here. 

What I'm saying is that they're are millions of voters, and that the vast majority are going to vote the same way in 2024 as they did in 2020. 

Are some people changing their minds? Sure. Is it enough to swing a state? No. 

The winner of the election is going to be whichever candidate has motivated voters. Donald Trump commands a horde of voters who are going to show up to the polls. The question is if Biden voters are equally motivated. I think that's not the case, personally, and therefore think his odds of winning are lower. 

20 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

That was a pretty slick sleight of hand trick you pulled and confused a few folks here.  
 

Notice you moved on to whether Trump asked people to kill the Senate bill in response to a post of me letting you know it wasn’t a “GOP bill” again.  
 

GOP doesn’t control the Senate, can’t control what comes out of the Senate, and Langford is as close to an open borders Republican as one can get.  

It came from a Democrat controlled Senate, but the bill largely captures most of the policy goals of the GOP and is easily the most concessions they will ever get from Democrats. The GOP also asked for Ukraine/Other aid to be tied to it. 

Congratulations on your party killing the only immigration bill they will ever get. But that's sort of the GOP in a nutshell, a morally bankrupt toxic sludge of a party who's only policy goal they deliver on is cutting taxes for the wealthy. Sort of crazy how every one of their Administration ends up with the economy in a recession going back 30 years.

19 hours ago, teachercd said:

We have pointed out more than a few posters here that are not voting R anymore.  You and others have changed their minds.  Just like I have changed posters minds about abortion and guns.

 

You keep saying that voters won't change their minds but out of the 10 or main posters in this forum about 20-30% have change their mind.

That's because they don't, the United States is very big. Changing the minds of posters on the internet doesn't help when the vast majority don't pay much attention to politics, aren't plugged into reality, and who's opinions aren't don't change much. 

20 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

You can keep saying something that isn’t true, but it’s not gonna ever actually make it true.   It wasn’t a GOP border bill like you claim.  

Like I said, hopeless. 

Exhibit A above. No matter how many Republicans come forward and say that the bill was killed because Trump told them to kill it, the MAGA believers won't change their minds. @teachercd you seem to think that pointing to reality is enough for these voters, it isn't. This poster is a perfect example of how voters craft their own reality, and there are millions just like him.

1 hour ago, TGHusker said:

I agree 100% - my statement about democracy isn't to distract from the boarder issue.  However, to your point, Trump and MAGA just played themselves into Biden's hands.  All Biden has to do is put the tape on continual play of the vote for border reform, Trump stating he wants this as an issue, the Senate GOP pulling their support for the bill and of course the House stating it would be DOA.   The full cult mindset is at play here.  As many noted, this was the toughest Border bill in decades and the GOP bowed down to their cult leader and dropped it like a very hot potato.    The GOP proved themselves to being a non-serious governing party and a very serious opposition (to solving real problems) party.  Any time the GOP brings up the border crisis (which would have played in their favor prior to this boondoggle) all the Dems have to do is cue up the tape of GOP removing their support of a solution that they helped to create.  

The issue is that Biden can point to the GOP nuking their own border bill all he wants, there is no amount of messaging that will get through to voters. 

Simply pointing to reality is not enough to sway voters - look at the conservative posters on this message board. It's a hopeless cause.

On 2/12/2024 at 3:28 PM, Archy1221 said:

Wait what?!???   Last time you said it was so they could save a few cents on cheese?   

Yes, this what is known as humor. I know that if Newsmax didn't tell you to laugh that you won't, but really I'm making an attempt to show what really motivates the median voter - the answer to which is astoundingly simple. 

1 hour ago, knapplc said:

 

I think that this had already served its purpose.

If you think for a picosecond that this will change the minds of voters, look no further than the brainwashed Trump voters on this board. 

7 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

 

It really tickles me that you twice voted for a rapist and you're not self aware which to see the irony in all the weird Twitter posts you link in these threads.

Like, maybe, just maybe, the people who voted for the rapist career criminal who tried to subvert Democracy aren't really people we should take seriously? 

4 hours ago, TGHusker said:

I wonder if there is any chance at the convention, that the Dems take a turn - if the polls look bad and Biden hasn't diminished the talk about his mental health and age.   I know the GOP won't move from Trump regardless of the stupidity that he spills out but the Dems aren't caught in a cult mindset.  They can still evaluate who gives them the strongest hand in November.  

Truely, I wish Biden would have played the role of the elder statesman who came in for 4 years, accomplished an economic turn around and then decided to leave on a high note.  He reminds me of a stubborn coach who hangs on for too long and finishes badly.  Bobby Bowden for example.  Tom left at a high point - which I wished he hadn't left then but stayed on 5 more years but Bobby stayed and FSU suffered - but I digress.    There are several good Dem governors who are young and could take on the aging, senile, treasonous, dictator want-to-be Trump 

- Whitmer of Mich, Beshear - Ky,  Pritzker - Ill, beside Newsom who wants it all so badly and doesn't hide it (the one I would not care for but who would be better than Trump).  

 

It's possible, but the electability of all other Democrats is weak. They all suffer from the same systemic disadvantages.

It's not like Gavin Newsom or somebody is suddenly going to make moronic voters reconsider the rapist they were poised to vote for. Republican leaning voters aren't suddenly going to snap into reality - they're to far gone to be reached.

Just sit back, relax, and take comfort in knowing that the election is going to be decided by a few thousand voters who vote entirely based on if gas rises or falls a few cents in the month prior to election day.

6 hours ago, teachercd said:

Remember how smooth Bill Clinton was, I miss that!

Or Ron and his jokes, I miss that.

 

Instead we have to pretend that Joe has a stutter and that Don should not be in prison.  

 

It is all so stupid.

It very much is dumb.

But Republicans love their 78 year old Rapist candidate, with clear memory problems and multiple criminal indictments. He's going to win the Republican nomination and likely the Presidency because he reflects what conservative voters want in their candidate. 

Democrats seem more willing to admit that age is an issue with their candidate but also wouldn't (and shouldn't) entertain the idea of running another candidate. I guarantee you that Gavin Newsome and Gretchen Witmer talked to the consultants and concluded that they would lose any challenge to Joe Biden badly.

57 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

Hey man, we're losing in the polls to this. 

Imagine how Republicans would perform in elections if the inmates weren't running the Asylum. 

3 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

Aaaaannnnndddddd now you finally understand the feature of The Big Guy’s policy on the border the past three years.  We are making progress here. 

You are never going to believe this but the President doesn't have all encompassing authoritarian powers, no matter how many times you vote for it. 

For the last few decades, each President's border policy gets endlessly tied up in courts because "jUsT ENfoRcInG ExIStiNg LaW" is endlessly appealed because the current law is not adequate to address current problems.

It's almost like, and this is insane, that we need a NEW law that specifically outlines the Presidents ability to address the border. It could even be bipartisan! Republicans can even nominate somebody to negotiate for them! It's almost like, and again this is absolutely bonkers, that it's something Republicans themselves requested to be done. 

3 hours ago, commando said:

if the democrats shut the border down to 0 crossings i bet trump and the republicans would object to it.  

There's a great story from the Obama years. The story goes something like this:

"After working with Senate Republicans for months, offering concession after concession, Obama asked Senator Chuck Grassley, one of the lead negotiators for Republicans on the Affordable Care Act.. "If I offer you every concession, will you vote for the Bill?"

Senator Grassley Responded, "No, Mr. President, I don't think I can".

At this moment, President Obama realized that after working with them for months to forge a compromise, he realized there was no compromise to be had.

This an old, reliable play from the political playbook. It's up to the American voter to correctly punish the party responsible, and we all know how that will play out.

27 minutes ago, knapplc said:

It's a sham, and always has been. 

 

 

 

This is nothing but lies from the cabal of woke DEMONcrats who desire Bidens OPEN invasion of criminal brown people at the border. Do you really believe Gubmint data?

Information is only accurate if it comes from trustworthy sources, like Catturd on Twitter.

6 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

  Good lord.  It does matter or don’t even have a number.  

You are never going to believe what happens today when CBP encounters thousands of people crossing the border. (Hint: nothing)

You're angry that having some restrictions is worse than no restrictions. It boggles the mind. 

14 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

The only people more disdainful of Trump voters than people like me are the politicians they elect, who privately express disdain for the constituency that elects them. 

No matter how Republicans treat their electorate, you can rest easily knowing that they will still fully support them at the ballot box. They're is seemingly no amount of abuse that is to much for them. 

59 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

LOL.  From reports, Democrats couldn’t even get 50 votes for that piece of trash.  But yeah, Republicans or something 

This is pretty incredible. It's like looking into an encyclopedia article of the mind of a person so consumed with the party line message that they will repeat anything demanded by it. It's so completely expected and unsurprising.

Such is the nature of current right wing politics, and why appealing to them is a pointless cause.

3 hours ago, commando said:

to be fair to her...she was tasked with selling a turd sandwich to america.   

Yes and no. America seems more than willing to devour a turd sandwich.

The issue with the Republican Party is they traded their traditional business friendly donors base for a constituency that is lower income, uneducated, and has their brains collectively turned into mush by Fox News. They've created a monster that fundamentally believes that government is a deep state operation geared towards crushing their beliefs. 

It's hard to get donations to political causes when you've created a base that believes political causes are the root of all problems. Hence, they have highly motivated voters for elections but can't use them to raise money.

2 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

She shouldn’t have been re-elected to that position in the first place so this is good thing. 

It does make one wonder how much more effective Republicans could be if they nominated competent individuals to posts like the RNC Chair. Given their systemic advantages, it's amazing that they've let some bozos hold positions of power.

However, it's likely that this is not compatible with the MAGA movement. Elevated positions within the party require fielty to Trump. Competency often goes by the wayside in lieu of perceived "loyalty". Such is the Republican Party squandering massive advantages.

5 hours ago, Danny Bateman said:

GOP: “IT’S A CRISIS CLOSE THE BORDER!”

 

Dems: “Ok here’s a bill so we can close the border.”

 

GOP: “NO NOT LIKE THAT!”

 

 

Honestly, this is a brilliant move by Republicans. They correctly understand how stupid voters are, and they're going to lose this for their gain.

Just like when they used the Lucy pulling the football on Charlie technique on Obama when they passed a watered down version of the ACA, Senate Democrats are now flat on their back and the "on border" is now front and center during the campaign. President Biden now has to defend the "chaos at the border". You can expect the world's largest migrant caravan to make its way to Eagle Pass from the deepest, crime-ridden shadows of Central America this October. 

Democrats now have to convince the American public - an electorate completely disconnected from reality - that immigration is the fault of Republicans, an issue favorable to them by 30 points.

11 minutes ago, teachercd said:

He is done.

 

Just for fun...If Trump basically can't run anymore, does JB bow out and all of a sudden we have 2 new people running in 24??

What about this makes Trump not want to run for President? The entire reason he's running is to avoid prison.

It also doesn't affect his electability because the median voter is impossibly stupid.