Dr. Strangelove

9 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

Trump won because of the following:

 

He was willing to talk about the border issues and make it a central theme.

 

He campaigned in the upper Midwest and HRC didn’t. 
 

HRC was un-likable and people rightfully believed HRC thought she was above the law with her deleted emails and illegal server.   People didn’t like that.   

This is a funny way of saying "tapped into rural white voter xenophobia, stupidity, and anger" by saying and doing things Republicans were worried about doing for decades. Trump just had the shameless ability to tap into it. 

Furthermore, the extreme irony of you saying Trump supporters don't like it when elites like Hillary Clinton think they're above the law is... beyond parody. You, a two time Trump voter, grifted into supporting a rapist-career-criminal-and-con-artist, are actually saying it's because Trump supporters care about politicians following the law?

Please Archy1221, I beg you, stop being involved in politics. It's not for you. And understand that there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. Stop watching Newsmax, end your Brietbart subscription, and spend your emotional energy on your family or something. Whatever it is, stop voting. Disengage from politics all together. 

3 hours ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

How far down the rabbit hole do you have to go to actually believe this is what liberals want?

He's pretty far gone. But that's sort of par for the course for two time Trump voters.

 Noted arm of liberal propaganda Fox News with this gem. 

1 minute ago, Archy1221 said:

Somebody’s testy.  Must have hit a truth nerve.  

I don't know what this means. 

6 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Colorados senior citizen population has increased 4.7% as a share of the populace just in the past 12 years 

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here. The share of college educated voters in Colorado has increased dramatically since 2010. The share of college educated voters moving to Phoneix and Atlanta are increasing dramatically as well. The reason Biden won Arizona and Georgia isn't because he changed the hearts and minds of the voters in those states, opinions cultivated over decades, it's because people from liberal states moved there.

22 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Since Nixon re-election, Oklahoma R presidential voting has stayed between 60-66% support in every election but 1 I believe.  The last few elections have been consistent in the 65% range.  

The population has increased by 1.2 million people in that timeframe and gotten less white by 10% 82% down to 72%.  

@Dr. Strangelove

As the population has become less white, the voting patterns have become more Republican.  

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Oklahoma

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_Oklahoma

Race baiting voters is a thing Republicans do well. These voters aren't historic democrats, they are low propensity voters who don't care about or follow politics until they get angry at something - in this case immigrants - and they vote accordingly.

37 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

My previous voting for Trump had no bearing on what The Big Guy is/has gone through.   It wasn’t an issue in 2020 because people like you proclaimed the laptop to be Russian Disinformation despite the IC agencies telling you differently.   Your extreme partisanship prevents you from acknowledging basic facts.  
 

Your poor political choices also made you believe and probably currently still do that Russia was the cause of the 2016 Trump win and that he collided with Russia.  Your extreme political partisanship keeps you voting for the old man who can’t remember anything.   Unlike you, I will be writing in a candidates name (Ron DeSantis).   You will be voting for a mush brain with a 38% approval rating who gave us an extremely awful border situation and foreign policy disasters.  Congrats!!!!!   

This, my friends, is what we call projection.

I do not believe that Trump won in 2016 because of collusion with Russia - they helped his campaign by targeting his gullible voters just like they're doing now. You voted for a rapist and a career conman, and everybody with a half dozen functioning neurons told you it was a bad idea to vote for him and you did it anyway. 

Please, for the good of America, stop voting. You've done enough damage to our institutions as it is.

22 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

UHM, IT IS ON A TABLE SAW, IT IS ALL OVER THE FLOOR - if it looks like, tastes likes, act like saw dust it is saw dust.   But wait - there are 3 lines.  I guess he was snorting saw dust.  All of my younger years in home building, if I only knew I could get high on saw dust.. oh what a shame for such wasted years!!!

 

And to tell you how much of a creep Hannity is - he brags about being the poor construction worker who worked so hard that he is where he is today - starting from his days in construction.  He knows better and his lies and gaslighting only proves him to be a lying cult member all the more. 

The funny thing is, let's hypothetically assume that this is primo-grade-A-Columbian cocaine.

In what world does this matter to the current President? 

1 hour ago, Archy1221 said:

And I’ve told you many times that voters change their minds enough to switch states from red to blue and blue to red.   It’s why we have swing states and some of those swing states have changed in and out over time too.  

This is fundamentally untrue.

Colorado, for example, didn't switch from swing state to becoming solidly blue because of Democrats changing the minds of Reagan voters from the 1980s. Colorado is blue because young, college educated people have moved into the state from other states essentially out numbering them. Texas is turning blue not because Democrats are mass changing the minds of Republican voters who've lived in the state for decades, it's because people are moving there and are beginning to outnumber them. The same thing is true for other swing states that are now Red, such as Iowa or Ohio. College educated voters are leaving those states, making them redder and redder over time. States change largely because of demographic shifts over time, not because huge swaths of the electorate suddenly change their political views.

What Trump and the MAGA movement have successfully done is awaken huge swaths of voters who didn't care much or participate in politics prior to 2016. By mobilizing an easily manipulated cohort of voters, he has cultivated a powerful political movement that allows him to be competitive in elections. This has also contributed to the red shift in former swing states.

1 hour ago, Archy1221 said:

Well I would counter by saying I have voted for a Democrat governor and a Republican Governor (more of these) over the course my voting timeline.  I even voted once for a Blue Dog House candidate in 2006 I believe because the R candidate was terrible.  Would you be able to say the same?   Or have you voted party line throughout?  When have you crossed party lines in a national election?  
 

I would say I am not the poster child for your incorrect line of thinking.   You would need to find someone else.   

I've told you previously I voted for Ben Sasse in 2020 because his opponent was terrible.

Additionally, you currently believe that Biden is part of a large corruption scandal despite huge swaths of evidence - admitted to even by Republicans - that it is largely made up, without evidence, and includes no crimes. But you believe in this in order to reconcile your own support for corrupt candidates as a two time Trump voter. This makes you a poster child for extreme partisanship studied by academics who are amazed that voters can construct their own reality, devoid of facts or a basis in reason, in order to fit the world around their poor political preferences.

1 hour ago, Archy1221 said:

Looks like we have another person that proves voters do change their mind. 

I'm pretty sure I've said many times that in the aggregate, voter preferences do not change enough to win elections. Individual voters change their mind in small numbers, particularly those plugged into politics enough to post about it on the internet. 

2 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

Voters who reached 18 and voted Democrat are now 45-55 and vote Republican.  Hence they changed their mind.   Cross tab polling data has shown for decades that Democrats win the young vote and Republicans tend to win the older vote.   People aren’t just born older.   Over time they change their mind of how to vote. 

This is much less true today than it was 40 years ago. Partisanship has increases dramatically since the 1980s. You're kind of the poster child for believing in your political beliefs even when they're completely disconnected from reality. It's kind of funny you, of all people, are posting about voters changing their minds. 

Also, to be clear, voters vote preferences stick once they reach their mid 20s. Young people do change their minds but it's becoming less common, voting preferences are becoming more rigid.

On 2/19/2024 at 6:57 PM, nic said:

 

 

It's absolutely wild that the border was an orderly and non-chaotic place prior to 2021. I'm not an expert, but this is news to me. 

2 hours ago, Danny Bateman said:

Meh, maybe, maybe not. It’s a binary outcome. One of the two sides wins. So I don’t get too caught up in gaming out different variables or minor factors like third party. I’m sure as s#!t not losing any sleep over a Kennedy failson or some No Labels circlejerk that might impact things on the margins.

 

Since I’m 100% locked in with my vote with no reservations, there are a couple points I hang my hat on that keep me sane these days.

 

One is just that it’s not even March. The primary is still ongoing for both parties, nominally. There’s still so much that will happen yet that will affect public opinion and ultimately voting intention. The average American voter has the attention span of a goldfish. Thus I no more trust a poll for the November election in February than I do a primary poll in May of 2023.

 

The other piece is that Trump hemorrhages support among his soft supporters if he’s convicted of ANYTHING. This one is a bit more conditional, as it requires the very slow burn of our justice system to continue cranking along and ultimately bend toward actual accountability. But if it does his non MAGA supporters are going to head for the exits. Poor, he loses. He simply cannot win with the hardcores alone. Thus I also don’t give a single rip what the hardcore MAGA crowd thinks or does. Once most voters stop daydreaming that this rematch isn’t inevitable, as much as we all don’t want it to be, many of the will realize Trump is the same corrupt, self-serving obnoxious prick he’s always been and they still really dislike him. Coupled with an actual criminal record I think it’s enough to sink him.

 

I actually agree with most of your analysis and generally really enjoy your input anyway, this is merely playing devil’s advocate to find silver linings for anyone who’s too stressed out by all of this.

I think this is a fair take. 

We'll get an idea over the summer if Trump's legal woes actually start to erode his electoral support. Being liable for rape and defaming his victim seem to have little to no effect on his support thus far. He's also likely to get a bump when SCOTUS rules in his favor in the Colorado case.

One main point you make which is completely valid is that the average voter is still unaware that Trump has essentially clinched the nomination. Polling this far out isn't accurate, and the true gravity of a 2020 rematch may not be reflected in polling thus far. 

3 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

Talk about fact Checking. Whoa….

 

 

Just so I'm keeping score, the main witnesses to this entire charade was a Chinese spy and a Russian spy?

I had no idea the Democrat-cabal reached such depths. Joe "The Big Guy" Biden's corruption is so deep, it ties to both the Chinese and Russian espionage efforts.

2 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

What are you talking about!?!????   It took like 5 minutes to look that stuff up.  I thought it was a pretty robust analysis. 

While that is funny, Lorewarn is correct. States change who they vote for for a variety of factors.

Demographic shifts, education polarization, and other factors have far more of an effect on why Iowa and Colorado are no longer swing states than it has to do with voters in those states changing their minds election to election. The voting electorate isn't identical in each state since people move, new voters reach the age of 18, or low propensity voters who rarely vote suddenly get involved in politics (Trump is excellent at this).

1 hour ago, teachercd said:

I get what you are saying and honestly you tend to always reply in the most polite ways, which I appreciate it.  I wish I did a better job at that.

 

And I did say that about trump not winning the R nominee AND while it sure looks like I was wrong (again) it still is not over!

 

As far as the bolded goes, personal experiences when seen over and over, turn into societal experiences and I do think we are headed in that direction.  As even the gambling sites are starting to change their odds.  

I think the election this year is high variable and external factors - mainly Donald Trump's legal issues - make this election unique.

My opinion would be, if Donald Trump's legal woes are going to harm his electoral prospects, I think we would be seeing that in the polls already. Right now, I don't think Trump voters really care. They're going to passionately vote for him. Biden voters (and this is a problem with the coalition that makes up the Democratic Party) are much less enthusiastic about 2024 than they were in 2020. He's going to have to hope that enthusiasm after the Dobbs decision, that PTSD from the moronic Trump Presidency, and other factors can motivate his voters to show up once again in 2024. I have my doubts that the Biden base is as motivated as the Trump base.

Of course, they could move to nominate another candidate to help alleviate the enthusiasm problem. But Gavin Newsome is a coastal elite who does not help their chances of winning crucial Midwest states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Gretchen Whitmer helps solidify the midwest vote, but nominating a white woman is dicey. Nominating her hurts their prospects among minority groups, their chances of winning in Georgia/Nevada. Candidates like Pete Buttigieg suffer from similar problems, and nominating Michelle Obama is a weird pipe dream. I don't think there's a candidate they can nominate that gives them a better shot at winning than Biden, for all his electoral flaws. 

On 2/18/2024 at 8:46 PM, teachercd said:

It won't be close. 

I remember you also saying that Donald Trump might not win the Republican nomination as recently as like a month ago, despite it being glaringly obvious that he's by far the most popular candidate for Republicans. 

You just seem to be convinced that the personal experiences you have with people and extrapolating those experiences out to the rest of America means that Biden is going to win easily.

I'm just trying to tell you that this is not at all true. Biden is currently in "loses the electoral college in a blowout" territory. Right now, improving sentiment in the public means he's trending from "loses in electoral college blowout" and trending towards " decisive popular vote victory but narrowly loses electoral college" ala Hillary in 2016. That doesn't mean he can't win, but that he's a slight underdog based on current trends.

On 2/18/2024 at 5:49 PM, teachercd said:

I get what you are saying but you saying it both ways.

 

1.  People don't change their minds

2.  People do change their minds

 

Which is it?  Do people change their minds or don't they?  How about we start with that simple question and then we can go from there.

 

So we have from you that the vast majority do not change their mind and vote the same way they did the time before.

 

Then you have that the few that do change their mind, are the ones that are stupid.  But, Joe got more votes than any other president ever, which means millions of people "changed their mind" because Hillary did NOT get that many votes, not even close...so were those 20 million mind-changers, that voted for Joe, also stupid and uninformed?  

As a whole, voters don't change their minds. They vote the same way each election. NOTE: That doesn't mean not a single person doesn't change their minds; just that not enough of them do for it to matter when it determines who wins a state's electoral college votes.

The reason Joe got more voters than Hillary in 2016 isn't because he changed the minds of millions of 2016 Trump voters. What he did do was get people to vote for him who did not vote for any candidate in 2020. The pandemic and a chaotic time for America allowed him to barely win because voters were highly engaged and millions of people who didn't vote in 2016 voted in 2020.

The reason Trump can win in 2024 without changing any minds is because his base of support is extremely loyal. He's very likely to get similar passionate turnout that he got in 2020. Biden can lose in 2024 because the base that carried him to victory may decide to stay home, that politics are exhausting, or that they are so uninterested in either candidate that they give up. In that scenario, not a single voter has to change their vote in order for Trump to win.

Currently, Trump is winning by ~2%. Biden needs to change his poll numbers to be up by ~5% to win. He needs AT LEAST to be up by ~3% on election day to have a prayer of winning. Even with improving attitudes towards the economy, swinging national polls by 7% is going to be a difficult task. 

4 minutes ago, teachercd said:

They brought in two vet WR's

I think they were 2nd in the conference, in front of michigan, when it came to the most rush yards.  If they do that again, watch out.

 

secondary will be a question mark for sure.

The issue with rushing for Nebraska is that in terms of raw rushing yards, they did well. But it wasn't a particularly efficient play and they relied on the QB run game to move the ball.

Without the threat of a QB run, which I don't think Nebraska will want to do at all with Dylan, is how much they can get out of the traditional running game. Nebraska has been average to below average doing that.

I think you're correct, they've tried to address these problems by brining in an RB transfer from Oregon, and getting WR transfers from Texas and Wake Forest. They brought in an OL from Florida. They realized that these were problems. The question is if they'll be successful in integrating these players in ways that help the team.

I don't think the coaching staff on offense is particularly good, and I question their ability to both put players in positions to succeed and to call plays that are complimentary to one another and help the team win football games.

An O/U of 7.5 seems absolutely insane. It's hard to see 8 wins on this schedule.

If the QB play improves, which it should, this team should win 6 games. There are a lot of question marks about the development of receivers, getting a reliable rushing yards from the RBs, if the OL can improve from merely being serviceable to good, and if the Secondary can improve.

Like last year, Nebraska needs to be bowl eligible by Halloween. If not they're in trouble. Unfortunately for Nebraska, Satterfield is still on the staff so I think they finish 5-7. 

11 minutes ago, teachercd said:

If not enough voters are going to "change their mind" then Joe will win with ease.  Because he won with ease last time.

This is not true. He won by ~20k votes spread around 3 states. Out of ~155 million votes cast. That's a margin of 0.00013%. Razor thin. The next election will be similar. 

14 minutes ago, teachercd said:

You can't have it both ways.  It can't be that people ARE NOT changing their mind and therefor Trump will win because if people not changing their mind than Joe wins.  

 

But you also want it to be that thousands of people ARE going to change their mind based on the price of gas and therefor Joe will lose.

In elections, voters vote for the same individuals as they did the last time, the vast majority of the time. Voter preference is extremely rigid and opinions don't change.  What decides elections is which voters are motivated to turnout. Candidates lose not because minds change, but because their voters stay home. 

The individuals who do truly change their vote, and there are not many, are the least informed voters. They either have no idea that Trump has legal problems or they chalk it up to normal politics. These few voters vote based on their personal economic situations are doing in the 4 weeks leading up to election day. 

The election is going to be close enough that these individuals could decide the election. But their opinions aren't changeable because they don't really have any. It's going to matter what gas prices do or if they pay more for their most common purchases.

5 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

"Decriminalizing" is easily one of the stupidest ideas that have come from Left Wing circles, and that is saying something.

The reality is that dealing with drug use, mental health, or what have you requires massive investment in rehabilitation, crisis management, and mental health centers that cost far more than tax payers at willing to spend. 

On 2/17/2024 at 2:44 PM, teachercd said:

Are you saying @JJ Husker and @BigRedBuster are lying?  Because the reality was enough

 

just like I changed the reality of abortion for one or the posters here. 

What I'm saying is that they're are millions of voters, and that the vast majority are going to vote the same way in 2024 as they did in 2020. 

Are some people changing their minds? Sure. Is it enough to swing a state? No. 

The winner of the election is going to be whichever candidate has motivated voters. Donald Trump commands a horde of voters who are going to show up to the polls. The question is if Biden voters are equally motivated. I think that's not the case, personally, and therefore think his odds of winning are lower. 

20 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

That was a pretty slick sleight of hand trick you pulled and confused a few folks here.  
 

Notice you moved on to whether Trump asked people to kill the Senate bill in response to a post of me letting you know it wasn’t a “GOP bill” again.  
 

GOP doesn’t control the Senate, can’t control what comes out of the Senate, and Langford is as close to an open borders Republican as one can get.  

It came from a Democrat controlled Senate, but the bill largely captures most of the policy goals of the GOP and is easily the most concessions they will ever get from Democrats. The GOP also asked for Ukraine/Other aid to be tied to it. 

Congratulations on your party killing the only immigration bill they will ever get. But that's sort of the GOP in a nutshell, a morally bankrupt toxic sludge of a party who's only policy goal they deliver on is cutting taxes for the wealthy. Sort of crazy how every one of their Administration ends up with the economy in a recession going back 30 years.

19 hours ago, teachercd said:

We have pointed out more than a few posters here that are not voting R anymore.  You and others have changed their minds.  Just like I have changed posters minds about abortion and guns.

 

You keep saying that voters won't change their minds but out of the 10 or main posters in this forum about 20-30% have change their mind.

That's because they don't, the United States is very big. Changing the minds of posters on the internet doesn't help when the vast majority don't pay much attention to politics, aren't plugged into reality, and who's opinions aren't don't change much. 

20 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

You can keep saying something that isn’t true, but it’s not gonna ever actually make it true.   It wasn’t a GOP border bill like you claim.  

Like I said, hopeless. 

Exhibit A above. No matter how many Republicans come forward and say that the bill was killed because Trump told them to kill it, the MAGA believers won't change their minds. @teachercd you seem to think that pointing to reality is enough for these voters, it isn't. This poster is a perfect example of how voters craft their own reality, and there are millions just like him.

1 hour ago, TGHusker said:

I agree 100% - my statement about democracy isn't to distract from the boarder issue.  However, to your point, Trump and MAGA just played themselves into Biden's hands.  All Biden has to do is put the tape on continual play of the vote for border reform, Trump stating he wants this as an issue, the Senate GOP pulling their support for the bill and of course the House stating it would be DOA.   The full cult mindset is at play here.  As many noted, this was the toughest Border bill in decades and the GOP bowed down to their cult leader and dropped it like a very hot potato.    The GOP proved themselves to being a non-serious governing party and a very serious opposition (to solving real problems) party.  Any time the GOP brings up the border crisis (which would have played in their favor prior to this boondoggle) all the Dems have to do is cue up the tape of GOP removing their support of a solution that they helped to create.  

The issue is that Biden can point to the GOP nuking their own border bill all he wants, there is no amount of messaging that will get through to voters. 

Simply pointing to reality is not enough to sway voters - look at the conservative posters on this message board. It's a hopeless cause.

On 2/12/2024 at 3:28 PM, Archy1221 said:

Wait what?!???   Last time you said it was so they could save a few cents on cheese?   

Yes, this what is known as humor. I know that if Newsmax didn't tell you to laugh that you won't, but really I'm making an attempt to show what really motivates the median voter - the answer to which is astoundingly simple. 

1 hour ago, knapplc said:

 

I think that this had already served its purpose.

If you think for a picosecond that this will change the minds of voters, look no further than the brainwashed Trump voters on this board. 

7 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

 

It really tickles me that you twice voted for a rapist and you're not self aware which to see the irony in all the weird Twitter posts you link in these threads.

Like, maybe, just maybe, the people who voted for the rapist career criminal who tried to subvert Democracy aren't really people we should take seriously? 

4 hours ago, TGHusker said:

I wonder if there is any chance at the convention, that the Dems take a turn - if the polls look bad and Biden hasn't diminished the talk about his mental health and age.   I know the GOP won't move from Trump regardless of the stupidity that he spills out but the Dems aren't caught in a cult mindset.  They can still evaluate who gives them the strongest hand in November.  

Truely, I wish Biden would have played the role of the elder statesman who came in for 4 years, accomplished an economic turn around and then decided to leave on a high note.  He reminds me of a stubborn coach who hangs on for too long and finishes badly.  Bobby Bowden for example.  Tom left at a high point - which I wished he hadn't left then but stayed on 5 more years but Bobby stayed and FSU suffered - but I digress.    There are several good Dem governors who are young and could take on the aging, senile, treasonous, dictator want-to-be Trump 

- Whitmer of Mich, Beshear - Ky,  Pritzker - Ill, beside Newsom who wants it all so badly and doesn't hide it (the one I would not care for but who would be better than Trump).  

 

It's possible, but the electability of all other Democrats is weak. They all suffer from the same systemic disadvantages.

It's not like Gavin Newsom or somebody is suddenly going to make moronic voters reconsider the rapist they were poised to vote for. Republican leaning voters aren't suddenly going to snap into reality - they're to far gone to be reached.

Just sit back, relax, and take comfort in knowing that the election is going to be decided by a few thousand voters who vote entirely based on if gas rises or falls a few cents in the month prior to election day.

6 hours ago, teachercd said:

Remember how smooth Bill Clinton was, I miss that!

Or Ron and his jokes, I miss that.

 

Instead we have to pretend that Joe has a stutter and that Don should not be in prison.  

 

It is all so stupid.

It very much is dumb.

But Republicans love their 78 year old Rapist candidate, with clear memory problems and multiple criminal indictments. He's going to win the Republican nomination and likely the Presidency because he reflects what conservative voters want in their candidate. 

Democrats seem more willing to admit that age is an issue with their candidate but also wouldn't (and shouldn't) entertain the idea of running another candidate. I guarantee you that Gavin Newsome and Gretchen Witmer talked to the consultants and concluded that they would lose any challenge to Joe Biden badly.