My feeling is 1 more, 2 total...
It almost seems we play terrible against lesser teams (SDSU,UT,ISU) but play well against the highly regarded teams (UW, KSU,OSU, MU),so we have two terrible teams to play, CU and KU, so we screw up and lose to one of them, probably CU, and kick the heck out of aTm. We win the CCG and the BCS bowl opponent.