kchusker_chris

...not sure that is going to help with your credibility any... Over 2000 posts on Owa and I couldn't find a single one that started with either of those statements, though I could have missed one. Perhaps you can point out the 1000+ posts for me? Thanks in advance. Welcome to the board. Even got yourself a research project already!

It certainly doesn't look like the calculations work nearly as well until you get a little closer to that 20 player mark, then it all evens out. I think Rivals assumes that most classes will reach 20. Essentially, we should all take the rankings with a grain of salt until later in process. (most of you would argue to take them w/ a grain of salt at all times - i like em, but tend to agree) I'd say there are groups. 1-10, 11-30, 30+ You could easily find superiority in the top 10 classes vs. the classes over 30, but the different between a #3 class and a #8 class is not really measurable. Likewise with the classes in the teens and 20's. Is Mizzou's class really that much better than ours? Probably not, but I'd say Florida's looks to have more pure tallent than our's (sorry if I offended some of you Bo worshippers w/ that)

I can roll sh$t into a ball and make it shine, but I'd rather start w/ something a little more glossy. Understood. But we are talking about Bo Pelini here! Superman wears HIS pjs to bed. He did the running of the bulls as well, except Bo walked. haha, I know I know - Bo can make even Chuck Norris cry.

I can roll sh$t into a ball and make it shine, but I'd rather start w/ something a little more glossy.

True, but I'm not sure anyone behind us will jump that far...and most of the big time recruits that are left out there and can really cause a swing in the numbers will sign w/ classes in the current top 15. USC, TX, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, TN, etc. I think we could easily end up right around 15-17. The last 3-4 years 1700 points has been exactly 15th each year. I'd take it

I'll be waiting for my quarter if you're going off Rivals. I gladly accept Paypal. See my post in recruiting... http://www.huskerboard.com/index.php?/topic/41511-team-ranking-w-the-3-targets/

a few things you will notice from the script (if you can read it) - top 20 players fit into the calculation, but the algorithm helps balance out classes of 13 vs classes of 20 - counts stars, not the ranking (a 4 star ranked 5.8 is the same as one ranked 6.0 in the calc) - position ranking helps, but only to a certain point. The type of position figures into the calculation. Theyh assume there will be more quality defensive tackles needed (50) than offensive centers (10) - A JUCO #1 5* recruit is almost the same as a Rivals 100 #1 5* except that JUCO players do not have position rankings, so assuming their stars are the same, they loose out on 8-24 points.

There have been a number of questions regarding "where will we be ranked" if we happen to sign all 3 recruits. A lot of speculation has put us anywhere from the top 10 (me when I compared us to Florida St) to just inside the top 25. Well, here you have it. #13...right in front of Oregon. Here are the totals, as well as the script I used to generate the numbers at the bottom in case someone else wants to use it. Do not use it for evil. You'll need to be somewhat familiar with programming. Don't mock my coding skills if you can do better, I only spent about 15 minutes on this. Please don't flood this post with requests for me to run a bunch of variations. Enjoy Current: 1146 With Only: Owa: 1434 Carnes: 1284 Cooper: 1284 With Carnes & Owa: 1568 WITH ALL 3: 1700 DECLARE @tmp_recruit TABLE ( id int IDENTITY(1,1), name varchar(250), star_count decimal(3,2), rivals_ranking smallint, position_ranking smallint, position varchar(5), h smallint, l smallint, rivals_ranking_sum smallint, position_ranking_sum smallint, n smallint) DECLARE @tmp_position_upper_limit TABLE ( position varchar(5), upper_limit smallint) DECLARE @h decimal(18,4) DECLARE @l decimal(18,4) DECLARE @n decimal(18,4) DECLARE @m decimal(18,4) DECLARE @avg_star decimal(3,2) INSERT INTO @tmp_recruit ( name,star_count,rivals_ranking,position_ranking,position) SELECT name,star_count,rivals_ranking,position_ranking,position FROM recruit WITH(NOLOCK) --WHERE name <> 'Owamagbe Odighizuwa' -- AND name <> 'Brian Carnes' -- AND name <> 'Corey Cooper' ORDER BY star_count DESC INSERT INTO @tmp_position_upper_limit SELECT 'DQB',25 UNION SELECT 'PQB',25 UNION SELECT 'RB',35 UNION SELECT 'FB',15 UNION SELECT 'WR',50 UNION SELECT 'TE',20 UNION SELECT 'OT',40 UNION SELECT 'OG',30 UNION SELECT 'OC',10 UNION SELECT 'DT',50 UNION SELECT 'WDE',20 UNION SELECT 'SDE',30 UNION SELECT 'ILB', 35 UNION SELECT 'OLB', 35 UNION SELECT 'CB',40 UNION SELECT 'S',30 UNION SELECT 'A',25 UNION SELECT 'K',5 -- DELETE ANY RECRUITS OVER 20 DELETE FROM @tmp_recruit WHERE id > 20 UPDATE @tmp_recruit SET h = CASE WHEN star_count = 5 THEN 250 WHEN star_count = 4 THEN 140 WHEN star_count = 3 THEN 75 WHEN star_count = 2 THEN 20 ELSE 10 END UPDATE @tmp_recruit SET l = CASE WHEN star_count = 5 THEN 18 WHEN star_count = 4 THEN 12 WHEN star_count = 3 THEN 8 WHEN star_count = 2 THEN 3 ELSE 1 END UPDATE @tmp_recruit SET rivals_ranking_sum = CASE WHEN rivals_ranking IS NOT NULL THEN 10 - (rivals_ranking / 10) ELSE 0 END UPDATE @tmp_recruit SET rivals_ranking_sum = 0 WHERE rivals_ranking_sum < 0 UPDATE tmp_r SET position_ranking_sum = CASE WHEN position_ranking IS NOT NULL THEN CASE WHEN position_ranking = 1 THEN 24 WHEN position_ranking BETWEEN 2 AND 5 THEN 18 WHEN position_ranking BETWEEN 6 AND tmp_p.upper_limit THEN 8 ELSE 0 END ELSE 0 END FROM @tmp_recruit tmp_r INNER JOIN @tmp_position_upper_limit tmp_p ON tmp_p.position = tmp_r.position UPDATE @tmp_recruit SET n = rivals_ranking_sum + position_ranking_sum SELECT @h = SUM(h) FROM @tmp_recruit SELECT @l = SUM(l) FROM @tmp_recruit SELECT @n = SUM(n) FROM @tmp_recruit SET @m = 50 SELECT @avg_star = avg(star_count) FROM @tmp_recruit IF @avg_star > 3 BEGIN SET @n = @n + (100 * (@avg_star - 3)) END SELECT @h * (@n / (@n + @m)) + @l * (@m / (@n + @m))

I could see that. I just hope he realizes that the bright side is more blinding than the waking dawn for a safety prospect in Bo's defense with what we're losing in the next couple years. Illinois Coach is on the hot seat. He's basically in Dan Hawkins position this year... if they suck he is out next year. I think Illinois is out. Arizona lost Mike Stoops. Cooper had a great relationship with Stoops, to the point that he almost threw Florida State into the mix when Stoops went there. I think Arizona is out. ND is only a couple of hours from his home. He has pictures of his ND visit and he is smiling and with friends through the whole thing. I imagine he knows a lot of people from his school who go there, to go there. I think ND is still in. It's a comfortable, safe decision for him in terms of distance and already knowing people. NU... he has his own photo album on his facebook page just for his NU visit. He didn't do that with any of the other schools. I think NU is still in. My guess... signing day he will either choose NU or ND. I see where you're coming from, but recruit updates based almost solely on the number of photos he has posted on facebook kind of creeps me out. Just like they ask you not to feed the monkeys at the zoo, please don't cyber stalk the recruits.

After every completion the croud will chant "Whoop! Whoop!" (HuskerCrazy - that was a whooping crane reference in case you are as slow as we all assume you are) (just messin w/ ya man)

Maybe you should call Bo and Watson and warn them before they make such a huge mistake? Give HuskerCrazy a break, he played with Ritch Bahe (that's how his name is spelled Crazy) - in a 1971 HS conference championship game. I didn't know Scottsbluff ever played in the same conference as Fremont but, as EZ would say - I've learned to take HC's word as Gospel. Such a close tie to the Husker football program warrants a little respect around here. if he's that old, maybe his memory is going out? possible - fortunately if he forgets a fact or two he can just Goggle it.

...good luck to the kid. Those witty MU fans would have done a number on his last name anyway. Fajardo - that's ripe for the picking.

Maybe you should call Bo and Watson and warn them before they make such a huge mistake? Give HuskerCrazy a break, he played with Ritch Bahe (that's how his name is spelled Crazy) - in a 1971 HS conference championship game. I didn't know Scottsbluff ever played in the same conference as Fremont but, as EZ would say - I've learned to take HC's word as Gospel. Such a close tie to the Husker football program warrants a little respect around here.

I asked almost the same thing a couple of weeks ago and it was quickly dismissed as hogwash. ...if Owa is N would it further sway Cooper to N, or if Cooper is N will Owa be more likely to be N. Personally I thought it would have an impact. These 3 are elite players, certainly difference makers. It would be nice to know I was coming into a class that contained them.

Yeah but unless you count up the players from UCLA and Oregon State, it's just selection bias. Here's what a 5 star pickup can do for your national rankings. UO moved up to no 13 per rivals. 7 spots with one commit. Addition of Seastrunk boosts Oregon from No. 20 to No. 13 in Rivals.com national team rankings. This was from http://www2.registerguard.com/cms/index.php/duck-football/index/ They picked up Lowe on the 24th as well. I'm not sure how often Rivals updates their team rankings. That weekend we picked up Curtis Carter and a couple others our team rankings didn't change for a couple of days. (you'd think it would be automatic based on some calculation - but doesn't seem that way) I'm wondering if this isn't the addition of both Seastrunk and Lowe that forced the 7 spot jump. Regardless - Carnes, Cooper & Owa should warrant AT LEAST a 7 spot jump.

...well Seastrunk committed, so there's 1 piece of the puzzle.

Agree entirely. I think what most are trying to say (at least what I'd say) is that the odds are stacked against him. If he was such a highly skilled QB or tremendous athlete coaches would have been offering him scholarships. This kid broke the high school records held by some pretty impressive Huskers. He went to our camps. The staff probalby saw a number of his HS games...yet he still BARELY got an offer. It's going to be a stretch. Those intangibles you speak of might also be what's kept him from getting offers. Can the proven winner, record setting QB humbly take his place on the scout team for the next couple of years? (without ended up drunk/high at the end of every week) Only time will tell, but at lot of our in-state "stretches" recently have come back to bite us in the a$$. Which ones brought in by Bo are causing roster issues? When you qualify that with "brought in by Bo" it's a little more difficult. Outside of Stein, Fisher is the only one that has produced. 2 for 7...though it's early. 2008 Class (Levorson - gone, Okafor, - gone once, probably gone again, Kreik hasn't contributed yet w/ the injuries) 2009 Class (to early to really tell, but Pensick & Zimmerer haven't contributed yet) I think too often we lump someone like Crick into the same mold as someone like Okafor. Crick is that typical hardnosed Nebraska kid. Grew up in Cozad, knows how to work. Okafor and Marsh are from Omaha...which when you're a kid is VERY different than Cozad. Omaha is like LA only colder for kids from Cozad. The work ethic of today's Omaha kids doesn't always match the mold we place it in. Now this one takes the cake. Do you really want me to start listing all of the Husker greats to come out of Omaha? Regarding the Bo NE recruits, you have to give a player 2-3 years before you label them as busts and taking roster space IMO. Levorson isn't causing a roster issue. He didn't have the desire to put what he needed to into football at NU and now is gone. If Okafor leaves, he won't be taking a space either. Until then, if he doesn't produce this upcoming season then I would agree he is negatively affecting the roster. Kreik still has promise, and the other two are just RFr. 1 spot out of 85, Okafor, MAY be a non-productive spot as it stands right now. If Bo feels that offering a scholarship is the right thing to do, then so be it. I would argue that they took roster space, they'll be taking it for the next 2 years because we could have had a sophmore of junior in there that could have contributed to this years team. instead we have to start over and find out if the next guy (after 2-3 years) is going to contribute. That is the case with EVERY recruit. I mean come on, what about Chris Brooks, Will Henry, or Barret Cruz? Every single recruit is a crap shoot, it is up to the coaches to determine which ones they want to take that chance with. Exactly. But you're going away from the original arguments, and that is that it "appeared" as though Marsh got a scholarship more because he was a nebraska boy. Poeple were pissed about it, and I can see their point. He had no offers. We gave him his only chance. We'll see how it plays out. I'm not questioning the staff, just saying people have a point. And a lot of those "intangibles" we talk about don't apply across the board just because you are from NE. Also, since I said "today's" Omaha kids...that would only include that last 5 years or so. 10 years ago video games sucks and the internet was just becoming popular. I would venture to put Niles Paul on that list w/ the Omaha kids. He said so himself that he didn't have the mentality, maturity, or work ethic to compete at Nebraska until this year.

Agree entirely. I think what most are trying to say (at least what I'd say) is that the odds are stacked against him. If he was such a highly skilled QB or tremendous athlete coaches would have been offering him scholarships. This kid broke the high school records held by some pretty impressive Huskers. He went to our camps. The staff probalby saw a number of his HS games...yet he still BARELY got an offer. It's going to be a stretch. Those intangibles you speak of might also be what's kept him from getting offers. Can the proven winner, record setting QB humbly take his place on the scout team for the next couple of years? (without ended up drunk/high at the end of every week) Only time will tell, but at lot of our in-state "stretches" recently have come back to bite us in the a$$. Which ones brought in by Bo are causing roster issues? When you qualify that with "brought in by Bo" it's a little more difficult. Outside of Stein, Fisher is the only one that has produced. 2 for 7...though it's early. 2008 Class (Levorson - gone, Okafor, - gone once, probably gone again, Kreik hasn't contributed yet w/ the injuries) 2009 Class (to early to really tell, but Pensick & Zimmerer haven't contributed yet) I think too often we lump someone like Crick into the same mold as someone like Okafor. Crick is that typical hardnosed Nebraska kid. Grew up in Cozad, knows how to work. Okafor and Marsh are from Omaha...which when you're a kid is VERY different than Cozad. Omaha is like LA only colder for kids from Cozad. The work ethic of today's Omaha kids doesn't always match the mold we place it in. Now this one takes the cake. Do you really want me to start listing all of the Husker greats to come out of Omaha? Regarding the Bo NE recruits, you have to give a player 2-3 years before you label them as busts and taking roster space IMO. Levorson isn't causing a roster issue. He didn't have the desire to put what he needed to into football at NU and now is gone. If Okafor leaves, he won't be taking a space either. Until then, if he doesn't produce this upcoming season then I would agree he is negatively affecting the roster. Kreik still has promise, and the other two are just RFr. 1 spot out of 85, Okafor, MAY be a non-productive spot as it stands right now. If Bo feels that offering a scholarship is the right thing to do, then so be it. I would argue that they took roster space, and they'll be taking it for the next 2 years because we could have had a sophmore or junior in there that could have contributed to this year's team. Instead we have to start over and find out if the next guy (after 2-3 years) is going to contribute.

To kind of clarify - because after I read that it sounded like I was demeaning Omaha kids and that's not the case. I grew up in a small town in western Nebraska. 600 people, 8 man ball. We currently have a sophmore walk-on representing the town. He literally represents the town. I played basketball against Eisenhart in high school - he represented his town. Marsh, Okafor...they're from Omaha. The "community" of Omaha could probably care less about them. That's not the case with the typical "mold" of our homegrown boys. Guys like Crick, Eisenhart, etc - they have more to play for. That's just my opinion - the opinion of someone that moved from a small rural town to a city, and watches his wife try to teach little city punks that would rather be at home on the couch than outside. That don't even know the word "sir" and would spit in your face in a heartbeat if you rubbed em the wrong way.

Agree entirely. I think what most are trying to say (at least what I'd say) is that the odds are stacked against him. If he was such a highly skilled QB or tremendous athlete coaches would have been offering him scholarships. This kid broke the high school records held by some pretty impressive Huskers. He went to our camps. The staff probalby saw a number of his HS games...yet he still BARELY got an offer. It's going to be a stretch. Those intangibles you speak of might also be what's kept him from getting offers. Can the proven winner, record setting QB humbly take his place on the scout team for the next couple of years? (without ended up drunk/high at the end of every week) Only time will tell, but at lot of our in-state "stretches" recently have come back to bite us in the a$$. Which ones brought in by Bo are causing roster issues? When you qualify that with "brought in by Bo" it's a little more difficult. Outside of Stein, Fisher is the only one that has produced. 2 for 7...though it's early. 2008 Class (Levorson - gone, Okafor, - gone once, probably gone again, Kreik hasn't contributed yet w/ the injuries) 2009 Class (to early to really tell, but Pensick & Zimmerer haven't contributed yet) I think too often we lump someone like Crick into the same mold as someone like Okafor. Crick is that typical hardnosed Nebraska kid. Grew up in Cozad, knows how to work. Okafor and Marsh are from Omaha...which when you're a kid is VERY different than Cozad. Omaha is like LA only colder for kids from Cozad. The work ethic of today's Omaha kids doesn't always match the mold we place them in.

Agree entirely. I think what most are trying to say (at least what I'd say) is that the odds are stacked against him. If he was such a highly skilled QB or tremendous athlete coaches would have been offering him scholarships. This kid broke the high school records held by some pretty impressive Huskers. He went to our camps. The staff probalby saw a number of his HS games...yet he still BARELY got an offer. It's going to be a stretch. Those intangibles you speak of might also be what's kept him from getting offers. Can the proven winner, record setting QB humbly take his place on the scout team for the next couple of years? (without ended up drunk/high at the end of every week) Only time will tell, but at lot of our in-state "stretches" recently have come back to bite us in the a$$.

Crabbtree probably gets 50% of his info from these boards, and is a little slow catching up because Owa's thread has now reached 39 PAGES!

you should try asking them out face to face - it's usually more effective ...kids these days, texting for dates (i'm 27 so don't want to age myself too much)

I might just head to the pub and hour early now Nexus. Thanks for the news!

Can someone put together a spreadsheet and/or flowchart. Something like this would suffice (only for rumors and plot twists, not cereal)