Scarlet Overkill Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 Thanks, Fro - living on the east coast has sucked all reason and logic out of me. Either that, or I'm just showing signs of age. Or both. Quote Link to comment
fro daddy Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 no problem, lines move alot it seems like in the first weeks. Truth is, if you were a gambler and you think NE will win big, by more than 24, you would be happy when the line is smaller, like a move to 21. It means they dont have to win by as much and you win your bet Or if you are like me and your team was a 6.5 pt underdog to Illinios and you think the game will be closer than that or that your team will win, you bet. That way when your team wins by 27 pts you are a big winner! Quote Link to comment
docpoco Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 no problem, lines move alot it seems like in the first weeks. Truth is, if you were a gambler and you think NE will win big, by more than 24, you would be happy when the line is smaller, like a move to 21. It means they dont have to win by as much and you win your bet Or if you are like me and your team was a 6.5 pt underdog to Illinios and you think the game will be closer than that or that your team will win, you bet. That way when your team wins by 27 pts you are a big winner! I think its trying to get people to put more money on Nebraska, saying there is a more likely chance Nebraska will cover 21 than 24. Quote Link to comment
arkstfan Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 The published stats apparently indicate the money is going heavy Nebraska. The theory at The Den is that the book makers dropped the line get even more money on Nebraska in the belief that ASU will cover and they will only have to pay out on the 10% to 20% that bet ASU and make a windfall. Quote Link to comment
docpoco Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 A line moves because the book is trying to balance out the money being laid on either side. If the betting public favors one team too much, the line moves to attract support to the other team. Exactly. That means that there are a TON of people betting on ASU. Why is that?? Does somebody know something that I don't know??? Are there "wise men" involved?? NO WAY Nebraska was not going to cover 24 let alone 21. Quote Link to comment
docpoco Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 A line moves because the book is trying to balance out the money being laid on either side. If the betting public favors one team too much, the line moves to attract support to the other team. Exactly. That means that there are a TON of people betting on ASU. Why is that?? Does somebody know something that I don't know??? Are there "wise men" involved?? NO WAY Nebraska was not going to cover 24 let alone 21 First, you're making a mistake is using words like "No way" when discussing college football... Secondly, the line is possibly moving because Texas, Texas A&M, nor Tennessee covered a 21pt spread against many of the same players that are on their way to Lincoln.... Lastly, I hope you have bet a lot of money on this game, since you are so sure of yourself... it would be dumb for you to be right and not win any money. Quote Link to comment
redout22 Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 3 isn't that much. Its not like it was at 10 and dropped to 7. Three touchdowns is still a healthy spread. Quote Link to comment
fro daddy Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 All i know is if people are betting heavy on nebraska then they will not be making it easier for those people betting nebraska to win. Remember they are paying out winnings to these gamblers guys. For example if 10 million dollars had been bet on Nebraksa and only 2 million on ASU and the nebraska betters win they are paying out WAY more they they keep. Most places that I know of pay a 50% win. you bet $10 and win they pay you $15. Some are higher, some are lower. Either way say for the example that is 50%. That means vegas if NE wins the spread would have to pay out 15 million dollars and keep 2 million in losing bets. when they only took in 12 million on the game that means they lost money. They would have a 3 million dollar loss. How many casinos or books do you know of that are in business to lose money??? Not a good way to stay in business. If they are shrinking the line its to try and even out the bets, not encourage more bets to the high side. On the other side if they switch the line and now its evened out to $8 mil on ASU and $4 mil on NE then they make money. If ASU wins they now break even, if NU wins they make money. LOTS OF IT. They would only pay out 6 mil and get to keep 6 mil as profit. Quote Link to comment
docpoco Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 All i know is if people are betting heavy on nebraska then they will not be making it easier for those people betting nebraska to win. Remember they are paying out winnings to these gamblers guys. For example if 10 million dollars had been bet on Nebraksa and only 2 million on ASU and the nebraska betters win they are paying out WAY more they they keep. Most places that I know of pay a 50% win. you bet $10 and win they pay you $15. Some are higher, some are lower. Either way say for the example that is 50%. That means vegas if NE wins the spread would have to pay out 15 million dollars and keep 2 million in losing bets. when they only took in 12 million on the game that means they lost money. They would have a 3 million dollar loss. How many casinos or books do you know of that are in business to lose money??? Not a good way to stay in business. If they are shrinking the line its to try and even out the bets, not encourage more bets to the high side. Since the spread is -21, its on Nebraska to cover... not arkansas state. How would lowering the spread encourage more bets on ASU? The answer is, it wouldn't. The spread was lowered because there weren't enough people betting Nebraska would cover 24, so they lowered it to 21, hoping more people will take Nebraska. This means that there are more people out there who think Nebraska WON'T cover at 24 than WILL. Quote Link to comment
knapplc Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 Since the spread is -21, its on Nebraska to cover... not arkansas state. How would lowering the spread encourage more bets on ASU? The answer is, it wouldn't. The spread was lowered because there weren't enough people betting Nebraska would cover 24, so they lowered it to 21, hoping more people will take Nebraska. This means that there are more people out there who think Nebraska WON'T cover at 24 than WILL. This is my understanding (but be warned - I don't gamble, so spreads are foreign to me). My guess is that people are reading stuff like ESPN's take that Nebraska gave up too many yards to FAU: "Nebraska and Arkansas State each posted opening-game blowouts. It's the Red Wolves, though, and not the Cornhuskers who feel much better about their debut. The No. 22 Cornhuskers try to open with consecutive wins for the fifth straight year Saturday when they face Arkansas State for the first time. Nebraska cruised to a 49-3 win over Florida Atlantic last week. Roy Helu Jr. rushed for three touchdowns and 152 yards as the Cornhuskers' offense finished with 490 yards. That wasn't the side of the ball in which Nebraska had problems. It gave up 358 yards to the Owls, and coach Bo Pelini called his defense "soft" on Tuesday." Reading that, you'd be hard pressed to realize we just blew out a 2008 bowl game winner by 46 points. If I was taking their word for it, I'd bet ASU, too. Quote Link to comment
AF Husker Fan Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 so where does someone make a bet at? Quote Link to comment
docpoco Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 Since the spread is -21, its on Nebraska to cover... not arkansas state. How would lowering the spread encourage more bets on ASU? The answer is, it wouldn't. The spread was lowered because there weren't enough people betting Nebraska would cover 24, so they lowered it to 21, hoping more people will take Nebraska. This means that there are more people out there who think Nebraska WON'T cover at 24 than WILL. This is my understanding (but be warned - I don't gamble, so spreads are foreign to me). My guess is that people are reading stuff like ESPN's take that Nebraska gave up too many yards to FAU: "Nebraska and Arkansas State each posted opening-game blowouts. It's the Red Wolves, though, and not the Cornhuskers who feel much better about their debut. The No. 22 Cornhuskers try to open with consecutive wins for the fifth straight year Saturday when they face Arkansas State for the first time. Nebraska cruised to a 49-3 win over Florida Atlantic last week. Roy Helu Jr. rushed for three touchdowns and 152 yards as the Cornhuskers' offense finished with 490 yards. That wasn't the side of the ball in which Nebraska had problems. It gave up 358 yards to the Owls, and coach Bo Pelini called his defense "soft" on Tuesday." Reading that, you'd be hard pressed to realize we just blew out a 2008 bowl game winner by 46 points. If I was taking their word for it, I'd bet ASU, too. I hear ya I'm not saying its justified... even I don't feel comfortable taking ASU at 21, much less 24... I'm just pointing out that of the big teams we have played recently, we either won or lost by less than 21, with the exception of Alabama. It's easy to see how someone could look at this game and think based on recent history that ASU might keep it close, and I'll say this... If our passing game can find some success early, then I think our running game will too. The spread offense is dangerous if you get a team guessing. I think those of you who go to the game or watch it on tv will be surprised, even if it ends up being a blow out by the end of 4. Quote Link to comment
NoDoubt Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 so where does someone make a bet at? This site has a list of places to bet at. www.betusb.com Also, the spread went down because more people were taking ASU at +24 than NU at -24. Now that NU only has to win by 21 more people will bet on them. Quote Link to comment
docpoco Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 Reading that, you'd be hard pressed to realize we just blew out a 2008 bowl game winner by 46 points. If I was taking their word for it, I'd bet ASU, too. This is an FAU team that gave up 50 to FIU at the end of last year too Quote Link to comment
Bayside76 Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 My wife does not give me enough allowance to gamble. Quote Link to comment
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