From Devaney to Pelini

[Nexus]

The most common debate among Husker fans these days is "what should our offensive identity be?" So I figured it'd be fun to compile a list to show the historical rushing/passing % ratio from Devaney to Pelini.

 

In recent interviews, Pelini mentions that he wants a physical 50/50 rush/pass offensive balance. Shawn Watson is quoted as saying he wants a "ball control spread offense." As vague as the latter may be, it leaves room for interpretation among Husker fans.

 

So let the debate continue.

 

Key:

Rushing/Passing %

(Win-Loss)

 

Bob Devaney

 

1962 - 71/29 (9-2)

1963 - 78/22 (10-1)

1964 - 65/35 (9-2)

1965 - 72/28 (10-1)

1966 - 62/38 (9-2)

1967 - 47/53 (6-4)

1968 - 54/46 (6-4)

1969 - 47/53 (9-2)

1970 - 55/45 (11-0-1)

1971 - 59/41 (13-0)

1972 - 42/58 (9-2-1)

 

Lifetime Avg. = 65/35 (101-20-2)

 

Tom Osborne

 

1973 - 63/37 (9-2-1)

1974 - 65/35 (9-3)

1975 - 62/38 (10-2)

1976 - 53/47 (9-3-1)

1977 - 72/28 (9-3)

1978 - 66/34 (9-3)

1979 - 74/26 (10-2)

1980 - 75/25 (10-2)

1981 - 76/24 (9-3)

1982 - 76/24 (12-1)

1983 - 73/27 (12-1)

1984 - 73/27 (10-2)

1985 - 79/21 (9-3)

1986 - 76/24 (10-2)

1987 - 76/24 (10-2)

1988 - 80/20 (11-2)

1989 - 73/27 (10-2)

1990 - 77/23 (9-3)

1991 - 70/30 (9-2-1)

1992 - 75/25 (9-3)

1993 - 68/32 (11-1)

1994 - 71/29 (13-0)

1995 - 72/28 (12-0)

1996 - 69/31 (11-2)

1997 - 76/24 (13-0)

 

Lifetime Avg. = 72/28 (255-49-3)

 

Frank Solich

 

1998 - 66/34 (9-4)

1999 - 68/32 (12-1)

2000 - 76/24 (10-2)

2001 - 70/30 (11-2)

2002 - 72/28 (7-7)

2003 - 68/32 (*10-3)

 

Lifetime Avg. = 70/30 (58-19)

 

Bill Callahan

 

2004 - 48/52 (5-6)

2005 - 30/70 (8-4)

2006 - 41/59 (9-5)

2007 - 31/69 (5-7)

 

Lifetime Avg. = 38/62 (27-22)

 

Bo Pelini

 

2008 - 38/62 (9-4)

2009 - 46/54 (10-4)

 

Lifetime Avg. = 42/58 (20-8)

 

* Bo Pelini (1-0) in 2003 Alamo Bowl.

[RedDenver]

Are you sure we passed more than ran in 2009? If that's the case, I'm really surprised. I thought we were balanced early in the season and then mostly running late.

[Sparker]

I can't order food without pictures... These numbers didn't mean much to me so I put them in a graph. No apparent correlation between winning and run vs pass. The background is color coded to the coach eras.

Graph.zip

[Nexus]

Are you sure we passed more than ran in 2009? If that's the case, I'm really surprised. I thought we were balanced early in the season and then mostly running late.

 

Yes sir. Here's the breakdown:

 

Rushing = 147 ypg.

Passing = 176 ypg.

Total = 323 ypg.

[Nexus]

I can't order food without pictures... These numbers didn't mean much to me so I put them in a graph. No apparent correlation between winning and run vs pass. The background is color coded to the coach eras.

 

Kudos for this.

[RedDenver]

Are you sure we passed more than ran in 2009? If that's the case, I'm really surprised. I thought we were balanced early in the season and then mostly running late.

 

Yes sir. Here's the breakdown:

 

Rushing = 147 ypg.

Passing = 176 ypg.

Total = 323 ypg.

Oh, so it's a ratio by yards. I thought it was by play calls. Ok thanks.

[HuskerNMO]

Are you sure we passed more than ran in 2009? If that's the case, I'm really surprised. I thought we were balanced early in the season and then mostly running late.

 

Yes sir. Here's the breakdown:

 

Rushing = 147 ypg.

Passing = 176 ypg.

Total = 323 ypg.

That's a VERY misleading stat, lets look at attempts.

 

2009

Rushing- 512 attempts

Passing- 364 attempts

 

Rushing per play- 4.0

Passing per play- 6.8

 

The offense was 70% more effecient when they pass the ball on a per play basis, even as awful as the QB play, WR play and pass protection was, it was more productive to pass the ball.

 

2008

Rushing- 486 attempts

Passing- 433 attempts

 

Rushing per play- 4.5

Passing per play- 8.4

 

This shows how much better the 2008 offense was, much more "balanced", 13% more YPC, 24% better per pass attempt. If NU gets back to that, combined with the D, they will be on the way to a BCS game next year.

[Nexus]

Are you sure we passed more than ran in 2009? If that's the case, I'm really surprised. I thought we were balanced early in the season and then mostly running late.

 

Yes sir. Here's the breakdown:

 

Rushing = 147 ypg.

Passing = 176 ypg.

Total = 323 ypg.

That's a VERY misleading stat, lets look at attempts.

 

2009

Rushing- 512 attempts

Passing- 364 attempts

 

Rushing per play- 4.0

Passing per play- 6.8

 

The offense was 70% more effecient when they pass the ball on a per play basis, even as awful as the QB play, WR play and pass protection was, it was more productive to pass the ball.

 

2008

Rushing- 486 attempts

Passing- 433 attempts

 

Rushing per play- 4.5

Passing per play- 8.4

 

This shows how much better the 2008 offense was, much more "balanced", 13% more YPC, 24% better per pass attempt. If NU gets back to that, combined with the D, they will be on the way to a BCS game next year.

 

Thanks for throwing those up. Bear in mind that I'm aware that stats alone don't tell the whole story. I wasn't about to break down every statistical category because I want other people to come in and contribute and interpret away what they want from this discussion.

 

The stats I posted aren't misleading in and of themselves. They're just a small part of a bigger picture. Anyone else can feel free to toss in their own researched stats that complement the ones I posted. Just wanted to get some good discussion going.

[MOD_CHAMPION]

Are you sure we passed more than ran in 2009? If that's the case, I'm really surprised. I thought we were balanced early in the season and then mostly running late.

 

Yes sir. Here's the breakdown:

 

Rushing = 147 ypg.

Passing = 176 ypg.

Total = 323 ypg.

That's a VERY misleading stat, lets look at attempts.

 

2009

Rushing- 512 attempts

Passing- 364 attempts

 

Rushing per play- 4.0

Passing per play- 6.8

 

The offense was 70% more effecient when they pass the ball on a per play basis, even as awful as the QB play, WR play and pass protection was, it was more productive to pass the ball.

 

2008

Rushing- 486 attempts

Passing- 433 attempts

 

Rushing per play- 4.5

Passing per play- 8.4

 

This shows how much better the 2008 offense was, much more "balanced", 13% more YPC, 24% better per pass attempt. If NU gets back to that, combined with the D, they will be on the way to a BCS game next year.

 

Also though 12 interceptions for the 364 attempts (1:30.333) vs 11 fumbles in 512 attempts (1:46.545) And that includes the freak fumbles from the iowa state game (some? of which were on passing plays) So +2.8 more yards per pass play but also 33%? more likely to turn the ball over. With the defense we had, and should continue to have, the risk isn't worth the benefit.

[HUSKER 37]

I can't order food without pictures... These numbers didn't mean much to me so I put them in a graph. No apparent correlation between winning and run vs pass. The background is color coded to the coach eras.

 

At 1st, your map confused me even more..(Usually Iwas better with numbers).

 

But looking at your graph a little more and it becomes apparent that the wins tend to follow the run.

 

I was surprised by TOs numbers...I thought that the outside perception (Herbstreit in his rant about our '71 team playing our '95 team in a mythical all time greatest team matchup)...That we only ran..Was wrong..but it appears closer to the truth than I'd thought.

 

i.e. I thought Ozzy would've been closer to 60/40 R/P all time...not 72/28

[HuskerNMO]

I can't order food without pictures... These numbers didn't mean much to me so I put them in a graph. No apparent correlation between winning and run vs pass. The background is color coded to the coach eras.

 

At 1st, your map confused me even more..(Usually Iwas better with numbers).

 

But looking at your graph a little more and it becomes apparent that the wins tend to follow the run.

 

I was surprised by TOs numbers...I thought that the outside perception (Herbstreit in his rant about our '71 team playing our '95 team in a mythical all time greatest team matchup)...That we only ran..Was wrong..but it appears closer to the truth than I'd thought.

 

i.e. I thought Ozzy would've been closer to 60/40 R/P all time...not 72/28

In 95 NU was as follows from a play count- 73.3/26.7

Rushing Attempts- 627- AVG 7.0 YPC

Passing Attempts- 228- AVG 7.5 YPA

 

The reason I said it's deceptive, is that TO's teams were so effecient at running the ball, I looked back over the years and from at least 1980 to 1997 TO's team avereaged over 5 YPC every year, then in 1998, fell to 4.8, but got back above 5 YPC again in 99-02. Then 2003 struck, and NU averaged 4.3 YPC, 2004 was 4.7, 2005 was 2.7 (not a typo), 2006 4.3, 2007 4.2, 2008 4.5, and 4.0 in 2009.

 

If you use the OP's post it looks like the offense was 46% run, 54% pass, yet in reality it was 58% run attempts to 42% pass attempts.

 

The bubble screen isn't that much different from the option, but a well run option is more dangerous. When TO ran the option, it was like a bubble screen in today's offense, but extremely effective. If you can get 4-5 blockers on 4-5 defenders, and then get the QB\RB or WR on the edge, big plays will follow.

 

If the NU offense is going to be successful under Watson, they are going to have to be more credible with throwing the ball, and are going to have to get the o-line performing to at least a 4.6+ YPC average if titles are to come.