The Outlier Game

[GI56]

Apologies from the start if I'm rehashing what others have already posted.

 

1. Offense

1. QB: We beat ISU with our 3rd string QB, while our best offensive player by far sat on the sideline. Most importantly, we basically played a half without a QB. The opportunity cost of losing any pass ability in the first half (4 pass attempts) and running the wildcat exclusively is huge. The offense didn't play great by any stretch (5 3-and-outs), but capitalized on ISU turnovers and scored in OT. Basically what we could ask of last year's offense.
   
2. Our offensive production wasn't lacking. Although Green only completed 7/12 passes for 79 yards and no TDs, Green still gained 4 1st downs on 3rd down by passing the second half. In terms of rushing, Burkhead had 129 yards and Helu gained 99 yards for a combined average over 5 yards per carry.
   

 

2. Defense

Our defense won the game today. ISU had 5 scoring drives:

1. 7 plays, 47 yards: Passing TD

2. 4 plays, 2 yards: FG

3. 12 plays, 75 yards: Rushing TD

4. 4 plays, 14 yards: Passing TD

5. 3-4 plays (can't remember exactly), 25 yards: Passing TD (OT)

 

The 2 long drives that our defense gave up were disappointing, as was the TD in OT, but 10 points were a direct result of Niles Paul's fumble

and an extraordinary 57-yard FG given up due to favorable field position given by the wind.

 

The defense also directly led to 14 points with a pick-6 and an interception leaving us the ball on the ISU 44.

 

3. Intangibles

1. LUCKY BREAKS
   Consider these losses in the last few years:
   2009: #13 VA Tech 16 - #19 Neb 15
   ISU 9 - Neb 7
   #3 Texas 13 - #21 Neb 12
   2008: VA Tech 35 - Neb 30
   #7 TTech 37 - Neb 31 (OT)
   2007: # 17 Texas 28 - Neb 25
   
2. Our lack of offensive production in the first half let ISU take the lead into halftime and hang around emotionally.
   
3. This had all the makings of a trap game. ISU at home with everything to win (including a chance to play for the Big XII
   championship) and Nebraska coming off two straight wins agaisnt ranked teams.
   

 

In the last 3 years, Nebraska has had 2 close wins: the 7-3 win over Oklahoma in 2009 and the 40-31 win over Colorado in 2008. In all 6 of the losses listed above, Nebraska lost by 6 points or less- 1 TD could've swung any game. Feel free to call me a homer but this is the first game in recent memory (last 4 years) where Nebraska has come out with the lucky breaks (especially the pick in OT) to win.

 

Summary: This is what our season would've looked like with last years team. We beat ISU with our 3rd string QB and basically played the 1st half without a QB. We squandered a 14 point lead with a stupid turnover and finally won a game with a lucky break (first in a few years). We're a different team with Martinez and this game should be viewed as an outlier.

[NUance]

Apologies from the start if I'm rehashing what others have already posted.

 

1. Offense

1. QB: We beat ISU with our 3rd string QB, while our best offensive player by far sat on the sideline. Most importantly, we basically played a half without a QB. The opportunity cost of losing any pass ability in the first half (4 pass attempts) and running the wildcat exclusively is huge. The offense didn't play great by any stretch (5 3-and-outs), but capitalized on ISU turnovers and scored in OT. Basically what we could ask of last year's offense.
   
2. Our offensive production wasn't lacking. Although Green only completed 7/12 passes for 79 yards and no TDs, Green still gained 4 1st downs on 3rd down by passing the second half. In terms of rushing, Burkhead had 129 yards and Helu gained 99 yards for a combined average over 5 yards per carry.
   

 

2. Defense

Our defense won the game today. ISU had 5 scoring drives:

1. 7 plays, 47 yards: Passing TD

2. 4 plays, 2 yards: FG

3. 12 plays, 75 yards: Rushing TD

4. 4 plays, 14 yards: Passing TD

5. 3-4 plays (can't remember exactly), 25 yards: Passing TD (OT)

 

The 2 long drives that our defense gave up were disappointing, as was the TD in OT, but 10 points were a direct result of Niles Paul's fumble

and an extraordinary 57-yard FG given up due to favorable field position given by the wind.

 

The defense also directly led to 14 points with a pick-6 and an interception leaving us the ball on the ISU 44.

 

3. Intangibles

1. LUCKY BREAKS
   Consider these losses in the last few years:
   2009: #13 VA Tech 16 - #19 Neb 15
   ISU 9 - Neb 7
   #3 Texas 13 - #21 Neb 12
   2008: VA Tech 35 - Neb 30
   #7 TTech 37 - Neb 31 (OT)
   2007: # 17 Texas 28 - Neb 25
   
2. Our lack of offensive production in the first half let ISU take the lead into halftime and hang around emotionally.
   
3. This had all the makings of a trap game. ISU at home with everything to win (including a chance to play for the Big XII
   championship) and Nebraska coming off two straight wins agaisnt ranked teams.
   

 

In the last 3 years, Nebraska has had 2 close wins: the 7-3 win over Oklahoma in 2009 and the 40-31 win over Colorado in 2008. In all 6 of the losses listed above, Nebraska lost by 6 points or less- 1 TD could've swung any game. Feel free to call me a homer but this is the first game in recent memory (last 4 years) where Nebraska has come out with the lucky breaks (especially the pick in OT) to win.

 

Summary: This is what our season would've looked like with last years team. We beat ISU with our 3rd string QB and basically played the 1st half without a QB. We squandered a 14 point lead with a stupid turnover and finally won a game with a lucky break (first in a few years). We're a different team with Martinez and this game should be viewed as an outlier.

 

Yeah, Ames was a perfect storm of crappy circumstances. But we got out of there with a win--and damn lucky to have it. KU, with Martinez on the field, is going to be a whole different situation.

[ADS]

Just happy to hvae the W in our back pocket. I have a feeling that in 2008 or even last year this is the kind of game we wouldve lost. Gut check for the team, and they pulled out a win, it feels good to be on the other side.