Texas, Florida can't blame struggles on recruiting rankings

[Nexus]

Stewart: Has this year not shown us that recruiting rankings are erroneous? Notre Dame, Georgia, Florida and Texas all field consistent top 10 recruiting classes, and all have performed below par this year. TCU and Boise State, neither of which are ever in the Top 25 in terms of recruitment, are ranked in the AP and BCS top 10.

-- Drew, Athens, Ga.

 

Recruiting rankings are never going to be an exact science, but now more than ever, I believe the major services actually do a pretty good job. Between their teams of evaluators, the rise of combines and camps and better access to quality game tapes, they tend to be much more accurate predictors of future success now than they were, say, 15 years ago.

 

Take a look back at Rivals.com's Top 100 recruits from 2007. Among the top 30 alone, eight are already in the NFL (including Jimmy Clausen and Eric Berry), several others are current college stars (Cam Newton, Ryan Mallett, Tyrod Taylor) and plenty more are solid starters (USC receiver Ronald Johnson and center Kris O'Dowd, LSU receiver Terrance Toliver, Illinois linebacker Martez Wilson). Look further down the list and you'll find more NFLers (Rolando McClain, Joe Haden, Aaron Hernandez, Dez Bryant, Jahvid Best) and other current stars/starters (John Clay, Drake Nevis). You'll also find plenty of busts, but that's to be expected, and the ratio of productive players versus busts is about 2-to-1 -- better than a typical NFL draft first round.

 

But we're talking here solely about the four- and five-star recruits, who tend to jump off the screen more clearly, and of whom there are a limited number sprinkled throughout the country. There are thousands of high school players each year who could probably qualify as three-star prospects (Rivals classifies about 1,300), guys who aren't as big or developed as the four- and five-star guys, but are fully capable of getting there. And that's where the coaching staffs at schools like TCU and Boise State earn their paychecks: They have to identify who among this largely interchangeable group of prospects has the best chance of blossoming. They have to figure out that a guy like Boise's Ryan Winterswyk, a lightly recruited safety, could turn into a dominant defensive end.

 

And the same applies to the coaching staffs at Notre Dame and Texas. I know there's this notion that the elite programs just print out a Top 100 list and pick the guys they want, but that's too simplistic. Sure, they have an easier time getting into living rooms, but they do their own evaluations, and just like Boise/TCU, they can't afford to miss on too many kids. Take another look back at '07, when Florida had the No. 1 class, Texas the No. 5. If you look at the Gators' list, you'll see nearly half the starting lineup from last year's 13-1 team (many have since turned pro). If you look at Texas' class, you'll see one star from last year's 13-1 team (Earl Thomas) and nine starters for this year's 4-6 team. Interestingly, the one current standout from that class, defensive end Sam Acho, was one of the lowest-rated in the group (three stars).

 

Mind you, Texas' recruiting classes have earned top five rankings nearly every year for a decade, and Mack Brown's team has produced 10-win seasons nearly every year during that span. So was Rivals.com suddenly completely off the mark with the '07 class, or have an inordinate number of those recruits simply fail to develop as expected? I'm inclined to go with the latter. Ultimately, that falls on the coaching staff. Meanwhile, that same year, Boise State signed nearly 15 players who are starters or key contributors on its current top five team, most notably Kellen Moore and Austin Pettis, both of whom were three-star recruits. Give the Boise coaching staff ample credit for evaluating and developing those players -- and perhaps give Rivals a little flack for not seeing the same thing.

 

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[girlknowsfootball]

Neither can Texas... hahaha!! To me when the schools with the top recruiting classes go less than .500 on the year it's a coaching issue. Either coaches can't coach or they recruit stars and not guys that fit their systems. Hence Mac Brown... oops did I say that out loud?

[NUance]

I think part of Tejas' problem is that they fill their whole recruiting class before the spring game. Seems like they would sit back and see how a few of their guys develop during their senior HS year--since they are in the driver's seat and can get nearly any player they go after. Not sure about the other schools mentioned. Maybe the recruiting services inflate the stars of players recruited by a few big name schools. So it artificially looks like they have a stellar class regardless of who they sign. Smarter people than me will have to figure this out. /scratches head.

[BIGREDFAN_in_OMAHA]

Neither can Texas... hahaha!! To me when the schools with the top recruiting classes go less than .500 on the year it's a coaching issue. Either coaches can't coach or they recruit stars and not guys that fit their systems. Hence Mac Brown... oops did I say that out loud?

I've said for YEARS that with the recruiting classes Brown has had he should have won multiple national championships. Weak link? Brown!!!