NamelessHusker Posted October 3, 2005 Share Posted October 3, 2005 Texas Tech managed to pull off a 30-17 win over Kansas, but don't let that score fool you. Kansas dominated this game in all aspects of the defensive category. If you take the time to read this analysis, you will see that Texas Tech is more then just beatable. This breakdown is being presented with no rose colored glasses, just straight up matchups of who should hold the advantage when game time comes. Once the Vegas odds come out, Texas Tech should be favored by 3-4 points, even though this is a home game for Nebraska. Here is the breakdown for the offense, i will do a breakdown on the defense later in the week. Quarterback Cody Hodges is still getting his feet wet. Although he knows the offense inside and out sitting on the bench the last 5 years, he still lacks that game experience to lead his team when better competition comes calling. I won't even take into consideration Hodges numbers against a new DIV-A team and 2 other DIV-AA teams. His real numbers are what he did against Kansas and what he does now for the rest of the season. Against Kansas, he completed 34 of 52 (65%) for 318 yards and two touchdowns. Texas Tech like Nebraska scripts it's first 15 plays to see what works and goes from that point on. One thing Hodges lacks is mobility. He did manage to pickup 14 yards on his first scramble, but soon afterwards, the Kansas defense gave him little room to work with and it showed. He finished the game with 13 rushes for a loss of 15 yards. He was intercepted once in the game and fumbled the ball twice as well. The fact he got sacked 6 TIMES by the KU defense did not help him out either. That coming from a KU defense ranked 39th in the nation in total defense makes you wonder what a top10 defense would do to him. One more alarming stat for this offense is the fact it had to punt the ball 8 times. Texas Tech had only punted the ball twice in its previous 3 games and those 2 punts came in garbage time against Indiana St (DIV-AA) and Sam Houston St (DIV-AA). Running Back Texas Tech is not known for its rushing game, and Texas Tech struggled in this category. Tauren Henderson had 2 big runs of 15 yards on the first play of the game and another 22 yard rush. He gained 37 of his 63 yards on those 2 big plays. He finished with 11 carries on the game. If you take away those 2 large runs, Henderson managed to compile 26 yards on 9 carries. Henderson when he is not rushing is used in a similar fashion to what Cory Ross was used against Iowa St (as a receiver). Nebraska's rush defense should be able to contain Henderson, if not completely shut him down and make Texas Tech 1 dimensional. Henderson came in averaging 9.4 yards a carry. He finished with a 5.7 average (2.8 if you take away the 2 long runs). With Nebraska having the 8th best rushing defense in the nation (allowing 73 yards per game) and Kansas ranked 5th in the nation in the same category (72 yards per game), Nebraska should be able to duplicate what Kansas did, if not better. Offensive Line Quite possibly the worst unit of the team. Kansas managed to get 6 sacks on Hodges, force him to fumble it twice and throw an interception, on top of 8 QB hurries and 9 penalties on the offensive line for 107 yards. The weakest link on the offensive line seems to be the left side, as the majority of the sacks (4) came from blitzes on that side of the line. The left tackle is anchored by Junior college transfer Glenn January who is a second year starter. Texas Tech like Nebraska has problems opening holes for it's running back. The second weakest link on that line is junior right tackle Gabe Hall who is playing as a full time starter after a backup role in 2004. Look for Nebraska to blitz both sides often and unexpectedly and take advantage of the weakness on the line. Wide Recievers The WR are the strongest member of this offense. When Hodges clicks, they click. If Hodges is having a bad day, they have a bad day. Texas Tech does not have a pure position for the TE that other college teams have and utilize on a regular basis. They purely play 4 wide receivers, so Hodges has 4 guys to look for and pass to. The breakdown of these 4 WR's is rather interesting. Here is a drawing of their typical routes (this is a simplified version) WR2 in this case covers the first 5 yards up the middle, and WR4 covers 10 yards up the middle. WR1 and 3 will cover anywhere between 10-15 yards on both sidelines with slants and hook routes incorporated into them. The Wide receivers will test our linebackers and corners all day long. Texas Tech will have some WR's who will dominate some of our corners and will most likely shy away from the middle receivers on most of the plays. Texas Tech does not fear any linebackers corp, but they will get the message by McKeon and company that those 2 WR's are a no go for most of the game. Tech's main go to guys in the WR department is Jarrett Hicks and Robert Johnson (WR1 and WR3 in the example above). Those 2 alone have 42 catches between the 2 of them for 637 yards on the season. The inside wide receiver ( WR2 in example above) is Joel Filani. He has 17 catches for 251 and the last WR receiver threat for Tech (WR4 in example above) is Danny Amendola with 16 catches for 223 yards. Texas Tech has a total of 15 WR's who have contributed this year so far in addition to running back Taurean Henderson and 1800 yards between all of them. Tech has tall wide receivers ranging from 6-0 (Amendola) to 6-3 (Hicks and Johnson). If NU can manage to shut down Hicks or at least contain him to a minimum, they should be able to control the passing game somewhat. Quote Link to comment
Blackshirtsguru Posted October 3, 2005 Share Posted October 3, 2005 Although I don't expect us to win I will be flying my N flag proudly in front of my house and screaming at my TV out here in West Texas! Quote Link to comment
Hunter94 Posted October 3, 2005 Share Posted October 3, 2005 yep. i hang my flag in front of the house.......every weekend.......it drives these batty Texans crazy........guy up the street hangs his Ohio State flag too....it is nice to have some company from up north hunter Quote Link to comment
Huskrz65 Posted October 3, 2005 Share Posted October 3, 2005 Eh, we'll beat em. Gotta have faith! Quote Link to comment
bigredhusker427 Posted October 3, 2005 Share Posted October 3, 2005 We will beat them if they play like they did against Kansas and we play like we did against ISU. I think everyone knows that they are very beatable. The question is "will we beat them?" Quote Link to comment
Roy CO HSKR Posted October 3, 2005 Share Posted October 3, 2005 This is from Haymarket Husker on another thread: Game 5 - A Closer Look at Tech -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TEX TECH 4-0 at NEBRASKA 4-0 NU opens as a home underdog from anywhere from 3.5 to 6 points. If that line holds, it will be the most points NU has been an home underdog by since 1986, when the Huskers were a 9-point dog against OU in Lincoln. From 1992 on, this will be only the 4th time NU has been a home dog (spreads from Covers.com). '02-Texas 27, NU (+3) 24 '03-K-State 38, NU (+2.5) 9 '04-NU (+2.5) 24, Mizzou 3 ’05-NU (+3.5 to +6) vs Tech With Tech’s mind-numblingly easy non-conf schedule, the Raiders haven’t been on TV yet, which doesn’t give we fans much to go on. Tech hasn’t yet played away from home; coming into Lincoln for that 1st road test with a new starting QB isn’t exactly the most ideal situation if you’re Mike Leach. It will be a tough test for Tech, no question. Then there are the video game-like stats for Tech. It’s going to be tough to get a read on Tech based on these stats, thanks to the absolutely putrid non-conference schedule they played. Seriously. I think Millard North has played a better schedule to this point. So, in the spots where I’ve listed the national stat rankings for NU & Tech, I’ve also listed what Tech did against Kansas. It’s difficult to tell much from one game, but I’m hoping that will at least give some perspective to Tech’s gaudy numbers. NU “O” vs TECH “D” 2005 stat matchup NU OFFENSE ......... Category ..........TECH DEFENSE … Tech v. KU 83rd 112.75 ......Rushing off/def....... 33rd 114.50 ......…117 76th 207.50 .......Passing off/def....... 19th 170.75 .....… 154 94th 320.25 .........Total off/def .........18th 285.25 .....… 271 80th 22.50 .........Scoring off/def ..........9th 12.00 .......… 17 98th ..............Pass Efficiency off/def ..........10th 4 .................Fumbles Lost/Recovered ............7 3 ...........Had Intercepted/Interceptions .........2 101st 29.0% ....Third Down Off/Def .....27th 31.8% ….... 29.4% 2.25 ...............Sacks Allowed/Sacks............. 2.25 9-15 60%* .....Red Zone/RZ Allowed .....8-12 67%** *NU offense in the RZ: 3 TD, 6 FG, 3 TVR, 2 missed FG, 1 DOWNS (OT doesn’t count in the official RZ stats) **TECH defense in the RZ: 6 TD, 2 FG, 1 TVR, 2 DOWNS, 1 Time Exp Tech’s defense did a decent job against KU, essentially matching its season averages. Outside of one long TD drive, KU’s points came on short drives after Tech turnovers. NU really appeared to simplify things on offense vs ISU, and it worked. No shifting before the play. More throws to the middle of the field, which seems to be Taylor’s strength, instead of as many deep outs. Plenty of crossing patterns, taking advantage of what ISU gave them. Plenty of working out of the shotgun, where it seems like Taylor is more comfortable. Throwing a lot to the backs. When they found something that worked, NU kept going to it. It’ll be interesting to see how NU adjusts its game plan to what they see from Tech on film, while continuing to play to Taylor’s strengths. NU “D” vs TECH “O” 2005 stat matchup NU DEFENSE ........Category .........TECH OFFENSE … Tech v. KU 8th 73.75........ Rushing def/off .........67th 136.00 …....... 47 35th 193.75..... Passing def/off ............1st 449.25 .....… 333 15th 267.50 .......Total def/off ............2nd 585.25 ......… 380 2nd 9.00 ..........Scoring def/off .............1st 57.25 …....... 30 7th .............Pass Efficiency def/off................ 5th 2 ...............Fumbles Recovered/Lost ................2 5 ..........Interceptions/Had Intercepted ............2 8th 25.7% ....Third Down Def/Off....... 37th 43.9% .....… 26.7% 6.50 ............Sacks/Sacks Allowed ................2.25 4-8 50%* .....RZ Allowed/Red Zone ......26-26 100%** *NU “D” in the RZ: 1 TD, 3 FG, 2 missed FG, 1 TVR, 1 DOWNS (OT apparently doesn’t count in the official RZ stats) **TECH “O” in the RZ: 23 TD, 3 FG Tech’s offense obviously struggled against KU more than it had against its first 3 so-called opponents. The rushing numbers for Tech really caught my eye; outside of a good first drive of the game, Tech’s Henderson was unable to gain much on the ground vs KU. Henderson & Mack really hurt NU last year from the RB spot (Mack has graduated), so hopefully NU will be able to contain Henderson like KU did. One other thing from the Tech-KU game: Hodges fumbled 4 times. NU had done such a good job of pressuring the QB this season, you’d have to think the Blackshirts will have a shot of producing some turnovers on fumbles by Hodges. Tech allowed 5 sacks vs KU after allowing 4 in their first three games. Hopefully NU will be able to put big-time pressure on Hodges & force the action against Tech. Hodges isn’t afraid to scramble, though; he had 8 scrambles/QB runs against KU (that number excludes the sacks). Tech’s red zone offensive numbers are not a mistake – 26 of 26 isn’t too bad. They were 5-for-5 against KU, but 3 of those were FGs, so that’s encouraging. Even though NU’s “D” has been awesome this year, you have to imagine Tech is going to score some points; asking the Blackshirts to completely shut them down may be asking too much. NU’s offense will have to hold up its end of the bargain Saturday. SPECIAL TEAMS 2005 stat matchup NU ...................Category ...................TECH 5th 39.83 .......Net Punting......... 39th 36.31 18th 14.84 ....Punt Returns .........41st 10.42 10th 28.60.... Kickoff Returns .....25th 25.17 29th 5.86... Punt Return Allowed ...82nd 10.86 6th 14.77 ...Kickoff Return Allowed... 31st 18.57 7-10 ...............Field Goals..................... 4-5 9-10 ...............Extra Points ................31-31 Misc stats 57th 0......... Turnover Margin ......12th +1.25 65th 7.25 ...Penalties per game ...117th 12.25 80th 64.25 ....Penalty yardage ....117th 115.75 NU would appear to have a decent edge in returns; Tech’s punt returns allowed is poor, especially considering the competition they’ve played, while NU’s punt returns have been very good. This will be an interesting area of the game to keep an eye on. Tech is dead last in I-A in penalties & yardage … and it’s not that close to #116. Tech has 18+ yards per game more in penalties than the next worst team, Fresno. Penalties were a huge problem for Tech vs. Kansas, killing a few drives. If both teams keep up their current penalty averages & throw the ball 100+ times combined, TBS viewers might never get to see Mama’s Family on Saturday night because this game won’t end until midnight. BOTTOM LINE What a great game this should be! So many great story lines. -Will NU’s new-found offense be able to continue its progress vs Tech? -How good is Tech? -How will Tech fare in its first road game of the year? -How will Tech respond to a close game in the 4th quarter? (The Raiders haven’t had less than a double-digit lead in the 2nd half of any game this season.) -How many times will “70-10” appear in print, be mentioned on TV & radio, and appear on this message board this week? (Over/under: 531 ) But the best of all is the revenge factor. The players & coaches aren’t going to talk about it much, I’d imagine. Coach Coz & crew have done one heckuva job this season, but that “70” is the 800-pound gorilla still hiding in the Blackshirts’ closet. (Yeah, I know a lot of what happened in Lubbock last year wasn’t the fault of the “D”, but this is the “bottom line” section, and that “70” didn’t disappear from this year’s media guide. I checked.) This is a huge game for the Blackshirts & they know it. This probably sounds crazy, but, IMO, NU’s “D” needs to shut down the Tech running back Henderson to shut down the Raiders. Henderson really makes that offense go, whether he’s catching screen & flat passes, or he’s gouging the middle of the “D” with an unexpected draw play. Stop him, and you really can bring the heat against Hodges, who’s had trouble holding onto the ball when he gets hit. It’ll be interesting to see if NU’s defensive game plan includes as many blitzes as we’ve seen thus far or if the threat of Henderson’s draws & screens will cause NU to be a little less aggressive. Last week, I wrote ‘first team to 10 wins’. I was right … sort of. NU did get to 10 first. NU-ISU did end up being a defensive tussle on the scoreboard in that both defenses did a very good job in regulation of playing in the red zone. Both teams moved it pretty well between the 20s, but struggled from there. A final score of 27-20 was a bit misleading, thanks to the scores in the OT periods. Even with Tech’s potential for offensive fireworks, I think we could see another defensive struggle with scores in the teens or lower 20s. (The lower the overall score, the better NU’s chances to win, IMO.) I think the key will be Red Zone performance. Tech has scored 23 TDs in 26 RZ trips. With that offense, Tech is going to get yards and end up in the RZ a few times; the key will be whether NU’s defense can make Tech kick FGs once they get there & not allow TDs. It also works in reverse: NU’s offense has struggled to score TDs in the red zone with 5 TDs in 17 RZ trips (even when counting the OT periods against ISU). When your running game is struggling, like NU’s did against ISU, it can be tough to punch in TDs in the RZ. If NU’s offense performs as well as it did against ISU, getting into the RZ won’t be the problem. But NU will need to score TDs when it reaches the RZ, rather than settling for FGs. After watching NU gut out tight wins in the past two games, I wouldn’t count them out in a close game against Tech. This team has a lot of heart & toughness. And I think this one will be close, if NU can have success on “O” and on “D” in the Red Zone. Should be fun! __________________ Quote Link to comment
indianahusker Posted October 3, 2005 Share Posted October 3, 2005 Excellent analysis, guys! Quote Link to comment
NamelessHusker Posted October 3, 2005 Author Share Posted October 3, 2005 The only mistake i read in that was this quote Hodges fumbled 4 times That's not correct. Hodges fumbled it twice, not 4 times. The team overall had 4 fumbles and only 2 were hodges fault Quote Link to comment
Hunter94 Posted October 3, 2005 Share Posted October 3, 2005 Carriker, Bradley and McKeon need to introduce themselves to Hodges....early and often! that will be the key to this game, their qb will see a few more Huskers in the backfield this year, than they saw last year...........our dbs will be playing soft again, no choice as we don't have the skill and favorable match ups here hunter Quote Link to comment
NamelessHusker Posted October 3, 2005 Author Share Posted October 3, 2005 KU vs Texas Tech recap Free recap from RedRaider Sports (a rival affiliate) KU/Tech Recap Quote Link to comment
Harrellin05 Posted October 4, 2005 Share Posted October 4, 2005 Just checking in to see what is being said about my Red Raiders. You guys do provide pretty good analysis, however there are a few things that I disagree with and most of that I think is because I was at an advantage and saw the game in person, where you're going off postgame stats and recaps. Kansas dominated this game in all aspects of the defensive category. I'd like to think since Tech's d shutout KU in the 1st half and only allowed somewhere around 95 yards in the first half and only one long td drive for the game that they would be the dominant aspect in the game. KU's d did disrupt Tech's offense but I don't think they dominated the game. Had they won the game and totally shut down Tech then the argument could be made. Secondly someone wrote that Hodges lacks mobility. The stats there are rather misleading too due to the final stats of whatever 13 rushes and however many negative yards. Most of those sacks (5) came from his blindside and that DE was pretty dang quick. Cody has shown that he's not afraid to step up into the pocket, tuck it in and run when he needs to. He is much more athletic in that area than his predecessor. I give credit to KU's defense, they were a lot quicker than what the OL was used to going against (thank you POS out of conf. schedule). I just hope they will make the adustments before Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised if Hodges was in the shotgun more this week than he was last. Runningbacks You won't see Tech running a lot of traditional running plays. What you will see when Taurean has the ball he's usually taking it on a shovel pass or screen and he'll go from there. He is a solid receiver out of the backfield and a great athlete. He actually just broke the record for most career touchdowns at Tech a couple of weeks ago. Offensive Line The analysis on the OL was right on somewhat. They are the weakest and youngest unit and not much depth there. When things don't go right of course they catch the blame, when things do go right the glory always goes to one of the skill position players. Same song as it's always been. Wide receivers Just a correction, Hicks is a split-end (w4) and Filani is a flanker (w3). Robert Johnson and Danny Amendola would be your two inside receivers. Johnson was recruited to Tech to play at qb coming out of juco, I believe he was the top rated qb in the nation but was red shirted last year and made the move to IR. He's been a great addition. When Tech does put in a TE look for Bristol Olomua or Rylan Reed. Olomua is most likely who you will see since Reed is a "non-traditional" freshman, after playing pro baseball. It is a fine receiving corp and they will sub in and sub out a lot. I have wasted enough of ya'lls time and it is past my bedtime so I best get to bed. I'll be making the trek up on Friday to Lincoln for my first experience there and I'm really looking forward to it. Here's to a good, clean and injury free game for both sides! Quote Link to comment
BigRedJake Posted October 4, 2005 Share Posted October 4, 2005 Just checking in to see what is being said about my Red Raiders. Well thanks for your insight man! Love to see other team's fans here. Unless they're dirty hippies from Boulder. Quote Link to comment
NamelessHusker Posted October 4, 2005 Author Share Posted October 4, 2005 Welcome to the board Harellin05. Thanks for providing some more info on the red raiders. You are correct though in the fact that most of the analysis is based off of stats and recaps and not actual game film since we haven't seen Texas Tech on tv yet this year. Just a correction, Hicks is a split-end (w4) and Filani is a flanker (w3). Robert Johnson and Danny Amendola would be your two inside receivers Thanks for the piece of information. Without watching any game film, i wasn't sure who was the inside receiver and who were the outside receivers. The reason i mentioned that KSU dominated in all aspects of the defensive catagory was the fact they got 6 sacks, 1 interception, caused 4 fumbles and managed to get Texas Tech to punt 8 times in the game. The drives for Texas tech looked like this: 1st Qtr: TOP 3:48 12 plays, 80 yards Passing Touchdown 1st Qtr: TOP 1:52 3 plays, -10 yards Punt 1st Qtr: TOP 1:40 5 plays, 27 yards Punt -------------------- Kansas 0/ Texas Tech 7 2nd Qtr: TOP 4:00 8 plays, 43 yards Field Goal 2nd Qtr: TOP 0:00 1 play, O yards Interception 2nd Qtr: TOP 1:31 4 plays, 8 yards Punt 2nd Qtr: TOP 0:47 8 plays, 42 yards Field Goal -------------------- Kansas 0/ Texas Tech 20 (fumble recovery for a touchdown) 3rd Qtr: TOP 0:39 3 plays, 3 yards Fumble 3rd Qtr: TOP 2:23 6 plays, 56 yards Rushing Touchdown 3rd Qtr: TOP 2:14 5 plays, 26 yards Punt 3rd Qtr: TOP 1:39 3 plays, 3 yards Punt 3rd Qtr: TOP 0:34 3 plays, 17 yards Fumble -------------------- Kansas 14/ Texas Tech 27 4th Qtr: TOP 1:05 3 plays, 3 yards Punt 4th Qtr: TOP 1:24 3 plays, -7 yards Punt 4th Qtr: TOP 5:02 10 plays, 34 yards Field Goal 4th Qtr: TOP: 1:04 5 plays, 23 yards Punt -------------------- Kansas 17/ Texas Tech 30 Anyone looking at those drives sees drives being stalled because of fumbles or an interception of because of negative yards. 1 passing touchdown and 1 rushing down for your offense should have your fans panicking at the moment. Had KU not fumbled and had your kicker missed those field goals (from my understanding, he has had problems kicking before), the score is closer then some people know. As far as Hodges mobility, i am going based off of his stats for the Kansas Game. I will not take into consideration his scrambles against the 3 non conference games you played, because like you said, it was a POS non conference schedule. Quote Link to comment
Harrellin05 Posted October 4, 2005 Share Posted October 4, 2005 Thanks for the warm welcomes! Yes, the drives do lead you to believe that the defensive battle was won by KU's defense. I guess I think more in the terms of stats. First half our d held them to under 100 yards of offense which is rare for our d and KU substituted in 3 different qb's throughout the game. None were really effective. I do see your point though. Our kicking game has gotten quite a bit better from last year. Trlica was pretty inconsistent, but apparently has worked on that during the off-season. I think he has only missed one this year and he's perfect on PAT's. Reyes our punter is a good one. He punted 8 times last game as you said, and he had only had to punt 8 times total in the previous 3 games. He is currently 3rd in the conf. with a 44.8 yard avg. What can we look for from NU's defense? Are there still questions in the secondary? I'm looking forward to this weekend. We'll be up there bright and early Sat. am to start tailgating. I've heard there are lots north of the stadium for like $5-$10 to park in. Is that the best place for a visitor with an RV that wants to tailgate? Thanks for any input. Quote Link to comment
huskerstag Posted October 4, 2005 Share Posted October 4, 2005 I've tried to black out most of last year's game. However, as i remember the score at the half was something like 10-3 or 17-3. We had driven down to TT's red zone and JD did what he did so often and threw and interception right to their DE. With the long reception to Fluellen right after the half we were right in it...then things fell apart for offensively and defensively. I'm feeling pretty confident that if we can execute like last week and avoid those costly turnovers this will at the very least be a tight game. After ISU and Pitt I can't say I don't like our chances in a close game, but we'll have to wait and see. Quote Link to comment
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