Kiyoat Husker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Earlier this season I had created a thread comparing Brian Edwards' Vegas Insider poll with an average of the AP/Coaches. Unfortunately, I have seen way too much rapid fluctuation in his poll, and over time, his poll has come to basically mirror the AP/Coaches. Pretty disappointing. On the other hand, Sagarin's ratings seem to show a greater degree of stability and contradiction to the AP/Coaches, so I did a comparison this week. Here's what I found: Ranked Teams that are a little overrated: Nebraska Baylor North Carolina Ranked Teams that shouldn't be ranked at all: Arkansas West Virginia Teams Recieving votes that are much worse than that: Georgia Maryland Michigan State Air Force --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Teams that are better than their ranking: Oklahoma Florida State Teams that should be ranked, but aren't: LSU UCLA Auburn TCU USC Teams that shoud be recieving votes, but aren't: Kansas State Iowa Washington State Memphis Pitt Toledo Notre Dame edit: forgot to provide a link to Sagarin's Poll: http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm 2 Quote Link to comment
Hoosker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I would agree with pretty much all of that. Quote Link to comment
NUance Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Yeah, I think the early polls tend to overcompensate—both up and down. Teams are penalized too much for losing a tough game and rewarded too much for winning several easy games. But these things tend to work themselves out over the course of the season. The rankings will become more accurate over time as more games are played. That said, the Sagarin ratings are probably more accurate at this midway point in the season. Quote Link to comment
mel4red Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 I'm surprised Oklahoma is still ranked, and NO ...... Iowa should not be receiving points at all ! Quote Link to comment
Kiyoat Husker Posted October 7, 2016 Author Share Posted October 7, 2016 I'm surprised Oklahoma is still ranked, and NO ...... Iowa should not be receiving points at all ! Looking at their schedules, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Oklahoma wins out, getting into the top ten with a 10-2 record. Aside from Houston, they've only lost to Ohio State thus far. No shame in that. As for Iowa, ... to me they are still dangerous enough to be a threat in all of their games, but more in a spoiler role than a legitimate division contender. I don't see them being ranked again this year, but getting votes? Sure, why not? Quote Link to comment
Big red surfers Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 With navy dismantling Houston, Tennessee losing and the potential of FSU beating Miami. We will be a top ten team. Can't remember when we were last ranked in the top ten. Quote Link to comment
Big red surfers Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 I'm surprised Oklahoma is still ranked, and NO ...... Iowa should not be receiving points at all ! Looking at their schedules, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Oklahoma wins out, getting into the top ten with a 10-2 record. Aside from Houston, they've only lost to Ohio State thus far. No shame in that. As for Iowa, ... to me they are still dangerous enough to be a threat in all of their games, but more in a spoiler role than a legitimate division contender. I don't see them being ranked again this year, but getting votes? Sure, why not? I'm surprised Oklahoma is still ranked, and NO ...... Iowa should not be receiving points at all ! Looking at their schedules, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Oklahoma wins out, getting into the top ten with a 10-2 record. Aside from Houston, they've only lost to Ohio State thus far. No shame in that. As for Iowa, ... to me they are still dangerous enough to be a threat in all of their games, but more in a spoiler role than a legitimate division contender. I don't see them being ranked again this year, but getting votes? Sure, why not? With Houston losing to navy. That OU loss to Houston is now a bad loss. Quote Link to comment
Big red surfers Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 FSU is not better then there ranking. On what ground are you basing this info on ? Quote Link to comment
Kernal Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 With navy dismantling Houston, Tennessee losing and the potential of FSU beating Miami. We will be a top ten team. Can't remember when we were last ranked in the top ten. 2011. We were ranked #11 in 2014 before getting humiliated by Melvin Gordon and Wisconsin. Quote Link to comment
84HuskerLaw Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 Notre Dame is now 2-4 and should be rated around number 85 at best - nowhere near deserving of being rated. Quote Link to comment
Kiyoat Husker Posted October 9, 2016 Author Share Posted October 9, 2016 FSU is not better then there ranking. On what ground are you basing this info on ? All I did was compare the AP/Coaches polls to Sagarin's poll. This is not my own opinion. I only considered teams that varied by 8 spots or more. The number of "teams receiving votes" varies in the AP/Coaches from week to week, but I used a rank of 40th as my cutoff line in Sagarin's rankings to estimate "teams receiving votes". http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm Obviously you can pick on an individual game and say it disproves that they should or should not be ranked. One game doesn't make a season, though. Besides, regardless of how close the game was, a 20-something-ranked FSU team just beat a 10th ranked Miami. Quote Link to comment
Kiyoat Husker Posted October 9, 2016 Author Share Posted October 9, 2016 Earlier this season I had created a thread comparing Brian Edwards' Vegas Insider poll with an average of the AP/Coaches. Unfortunately, I have seen way too much rapid fluctuation in his poll, and over time, his poll has come to basically mirror the AP/Coaches. Pretty disappointing. On the other hand, Sagarin's ratings seem to show a greater degree of stability and contradiction to the AP/Coaches, so I did a comparison this week. Here's what I found: Ranked Teams that are a little overrated: Nebraska - BYE Baylor - BYE North Carolina #17 NC was DESTROYED by #25 Virginia Tech 34-3 Ranked Teams that shouldn't be ranked at all: Arkansas - Lost to Bama 49-30. Hard to fault them for putting up 30. - Push West Virginia - BYE Teams Recieving votes that are much worse than that: Georgia - Will play Sunday Maryland - Lost to a bad (not receiving votes) Penn State team, 38-14 Michigan State - Hammered by BYU 31-14. BYU is 3-3. Air Force - Lost to Wyoming 35-26 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Teams that are better than their ranking: Oklahoma - Got by Texas 45-40. Push Florida State - Squeaks by Miami 20-19. I'll give them credit because Miami was ranked #10 and undefeated. Teams that should be ranked, but aren't: LSU - Game with Florida Cancelled UCLA - Still playing 4-1 Arizona St Auburn - Dominated Miss State 38-14 (it was 35-0 at the half) TCU - Squeaks by Kansas with last-minute field goal USC - Beats #21 Colorado 21-17 Teams that shoud be recieving votes, but aren't: Kansas State - Beat Texas Tech 44-38. Iowa - Squeaks by Minnesota - Push Washington State - Beating #15 Stanford 21-3 in 3rd Q Memphis - Beats Temple 34-27. Pitt - Beats Georgia Tech 37-34. Toledo - Beat E. Michigan 35-20. Only Loss is to BYU by 2 points. Notre Dame - Loses to NC State 10-3 edit: forgot to provide a link to Sagarin's Poll: http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm Updating with results..... Based only on this weeks results, Looks like Sagarin was very right about North Carolina, Auburn, and Washington State, fairly right about 8 others, and wrong about TCU and Notre Dame. Quote Link to comment
Kiyoat Husker Posted October 14, 2016 Author Share Posted October 14, 2016 OK, a little late this week, so will do it quickly: (According to the Sagarin Ratings) (includes teams getting votes) Most overranked teams: Navy -27.5 Georgia -21.5 Arizona State -18.5 Utah -16 Nebraska -12.5 Baylor -11.5 West Virginia -10 Arkansas -9 Most underranked teams: UCLA +23 LSU +18 Wash St +16 Stanford +14.5 TCU +11 Oklahoma +8.5 1 Quote Link to comment
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