Critical Stats: Where Does Nebraska Stand?

[It'sNotAFakeID]

I'm a subscriber to the college football subreddit and take part in their user poll (basically Reddit's version of the AP Poll). To develop my poll, I take a look at where each team stands compared to average on several metrics that I (and several other folks) think are important to success and weight them accordingly. 

 

These metrics are as follows:

 

Points per Play Margin: Are your plays more valuable than your opponent's?

Yards per Point Margin: Does your team have to travel fewer yards to score a point than your opponent?

Red Zone %: How frequently does your team come away with points when in the red zone?

Third Down %: Can your team keep the drive going on 3rd down?

Opponent Red Zone %: How frequently do you allow your opponent to score when in the red zone?

Opponent Third Down %: Can you get your opponent off the field on 3rd down?

Turnover Margin: Are your giving or taking the ball away more?

Penalty Yards per Game: How many yards are you "unnecessarily" giving up per game? How easier is your team making it for your opponent or how harder is your team making it for themselves?

 

I throw Strength of Schedule into the mix to in order to balance out teams that are just performing well against inferior opponents. 

 

Anyways, I thought it'd be interesting to take a look at where Nebraska fares on each of these metrics in comparison to the rest of college football. This is very similar to what beoroach (possibly incorrect username) does with Nebraska at a conference level. 

 

Points per Play Margin

 

Nebraska currently ranks 111th in points per play margin at -0.225. This means Nebraska has to run more plays to score points and Nebraska's opponents have to run fewer plays to score points. Other Power-5 teams ranked below Nebraska are Pittsburgh (112th), Tennessee (114th), UCLA (115th), Arkansas (117th), Rutgers (120th), and Oregon State (123rd). Currently, the Top 5 teams in this statistic are: Alabama at 0.613, Oklahoma at 0.53, Appalachian State at 0.415, Penn State at 0.403, and Georgia at 0.392.

 

Yards per Point Margin

 

Nebraska currently ranks 127th in yards per point margin at -8.7. This means Nebraska, on average, has to go 9 more yards than their opponent to score a single point. Surprisingly, this stat isn't correlated with penalty yards per game; you would think that the more penalties a team commits, the more/fewer yards they/their opponent would have to travel to score a point. Just one Power 5 team ranks below Nebraska on this stat: Arkansas is 128th at -10.1 yards per point margin. The Top 5 teams in this stat are: Alabama at 14.4, Auburn at 11.3, Florida at 9.3, Cincinnati at 9.3, and NC State at 8.3.

 

Red Zone %

 

Nebraska is converting 82% of their red zone attempts into points, which is good for 79th in the country. Despite ranking higher in this stat than the previous two stats, Nebraska is still below average in terms of converting red zone opportunities into points. Though we aren't struggling as mightily in the red zone as division-mate Minnesota, who has only converted 64% of their drives into the red zone into points, or former Big XII foe Texas, who has only converted 68% of their drives into the red zone into points. 

 

Third Down %

 

It's crucial to keep drives going when they reach third down, and Nebraska has struggled in that regard, ranking 107th at 32%. Funnily enough, the team that's leading the way in third down conversions is UCF at 65%. UCF was also a Top 10 team in third down conversions last year as well. 

 

Opponent Red Zone %

 

Nebraska is allowing scores on 89% of their opponents' drives into the red zone, 91st in the country. Red zone defense isn't the be-all, end-all in terms of success, and some of the teams around Nebraska, such as Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, and LSU prove that point. Our upcoming opponent, Wisconsin, is the best team in the nation in this stat, allowing teams to score on just 60% of their drives into the red zone. 

 

Opponent Third Down %

 

Just like it's important to keep drives going on third down, it's important to get your opponent off the field on third down, and Nebraska (surprisingly) isn't too bad at this, allowing opponents to convert 39% of their third down attempts. I would have thought that Nebraska would've been ranked a lot worse on opponent third down %, but perhaps it's just the big, back-breaking third downs that are sticking out in my mind. Wisconsin, by the way, fares just as well as we do on opponent third down %. It's cliched, but Nebraska is going to have to take advantage of that "weakness" if they are to have any chance of giving Wisconsin a fight. 

 

Turnover Margin

 

124th in turnover margin. Nebraska is in the bottom 10 in turnover margin at -1.5. Though the offense handled the ball a lot better last Saturday with just a sole interception thrown by Martinez, the defense can not find a way to generate takeaways. The one INT by Lamar Jackson against Troy shouldn't have counted, and the one INT by Dismuke was overturned because of penalty. The worst team in turnover margin, TCU, comes as a surprise. UCF, by the way, is 2nd in the country in turnover margin and was 2nd in the country in turnover margin last year. 

 

Penalty Yards per Game

 

There are only two teams in all of college football who have committed more penalty yards per game than Nebraska: Cincinnati and UAB. Penalty yards per game, thus far, isn't a characterization of bad teams, as Michigan, Auburn, Ohio State, Kentucky, Texas, and Michigan State all rank towards the bottom in penalty yards per game. It's just that each of these teams is able to overcome those penalties, whereas Nebraska can't seem to find away to overcome themselves. It's appropriate that the team who has committed the fewest penalty yards per game is Navy (although Army is ranked 106th). 

 

SOS

 

The stats Nebraska has put up thus far would be extremely alarming if it were coming against a below average strength of schedule. Thus far, these results have come against the 38th-rated strength of schedule, which could perhaps give a little optimism regarding how the team will do the rest of the way. 

[Toe]

TBH, those first few stats are redundant - do poorly in penalties and turnovers and you're going to have run more plays and get more yards to get your points. We've out-yarded 3/4 of our opponents this year, but obviously we didn't out-points them...